Matches The League 1 Promotion Run In

[SteMerritt]

I quietly fancy Wycombe to finish 6th and win the playoffs. Anti-football rules in this league

I guess it's better than them finishing 8th and winning them like last time...

 

[MarkG]

Last night's 3-0 win by Portsmouth over Rotherham has made it a bit more interesting. I don't think Portsmouth have a chance on making up the ten points on at least four other teams but we might need them to do us a favour last game of the season vs Sheffield Wednesday.
Ideal results this weekend ...
MK Dons beat Sheffield Wednesday
Plymouth beat Wycombe
Shrewsbury beat Sunderland
Rotherham beat Ipswich
Oxford beat Fleetwood

I suppose I had better put a five team accumulator on the opposite results.

 

[pafcprogs]

Agree with most of these.

Selfishly Dons v Wendies a draw
Rotherham to lose again.

 

[SirAndyOfCrosby]

Last night's 3-0 win by Portsmouth over Rotherham has made it a bit more interesting. I don't think Portsmouth have a chance on making up the ten points on at least four other teams but we might need them to do us a favour last game of the season vs Sheffield Wednesday.
Ideal results this weekend ...
MK Dons beat Sheffield Wednesday
Plymouth beat Wycombe
Shrewsbury beat Sunderland
Rotherham beat Ipswich
Oxford beat Fleetwood

Ipswich to beat Rotherham. The former have next to no chance of making the play-offs. The latter, while they should still be challenging for 2nd place, could still be caught by us and fail to make the play-offs altogether. *Percentages trigger alert* It's a long shot, but our chances of the Play-Offs increased from 8% to 9% with Rotherham's defeat to Pompey last night. Not saying for a second we will catch them (we'd need to win our remaining 4) - but it's better for us for Ipswich to beat them.

 

[Jolteon]

I hope you'll all forgive me for leaving the updates from last nights games until after the games later this week.

To be honest I have a busy Easter weekend planned so I can't guarantee speedy updates this weekend either, but I'll do what I can and if we lose Friday no one will care anyways as we'll be done for the season

 

[RyanioBirdio]

Vokes for example was a 1 year deal with the option of another - which I suspect they would only take up with promotion

Only just seen this - I can actually tell you exactly how the Vokes deal is structured. Change into your jimjams while I pour you a glass of milk. Don’t make this weird.

Vokes was on 30k a week at Stoke who paid him half of his final year to leave (common practice and pretty standard percentage), while Wycombe then offered him 10k a week, so he’s earning nearly the same this season playing and scoring in L1 as he would’ve been earning while rotting in the reserves at Stoke. He does as you know have a second year option, but it’s multiple outcome based. There’s one option in his favour and one in the club’s favour, and both carry different wage amounts and are dependant on what division Wycombe are in. But ultimately, as it stands Wycombe have spent half a million quid on him for one year.

However, between wages and loan fees we have also spent half a million quid on Herbie Kane for one season, without even the possibility of keeping him for another year without spending at least the same again. Which is why it’s always funny seeing Wycombe held up (not by you, but certainly by some others) as some sort of big-spending behemoth while we’re just lucky to be competing with such extravagance. McGuane has cost us half a million quid this season between the transfer fee and his salary, and Browne has cost slightly more than 500k between his fee and just half a season of his wages, and we didn’t even manage to get 90 minutes out of him, let alone 15 goals like Vokes has provided. I’m sure people will say, “Yeah but they’re investments who should turn a profit long-term”, but that’s not the point if the discussion is about budgets and spending for the 21/22 season in isolation. Even so, the point is that Kane cost what Vokes cost for the same period of time, only it would cost us more to get Kane back for even just a second season than it would cost Wycombe to keep Vokes for the same.

Anyway, just thought I’d comment since Vokes’ name came up and I’ve seen him held up as some sort of outrageous money pit a few times over the months. Plucky, plucky Oxford…

 

[SirAndyOfCrosby]

Only just seen this - I can actually tell you exactly how the Vokes deal is structured. Change into your jimjams while I pour you a glass of milk. Don’t make this weird.

Vokes was on 30k a week at Stoke who paid him half of his final year to leave (common practice and pretty standard percentage), while Wycombe then offered him 10k a week, so he’s earning nearly the same this season playing and scoring in L1 as he would’ve been earning while rotting in the reserves at Stoke. He does as you know have a second year option, but it’s multiple outcome based. There’s one option in his favour and one in the club’s favour, and both carry different wage amounts and are dependant on what division Wycombe are in. But ultimately, as it stands Wycombe have spent half a million quid on him for one year.

However, between wages and loan fees we have also spent half a million quid on Herbie Kane for one season, without even the possibility of keeping him for another year without spending at least the same again. Which is why it’s always funny seeing Wycombe held up (not by you, but certainly by some others) as some sort of big-spending behemoth while we’re just lucky to be competing with such extravagance. McGuane has cost us half a million quid this season between the transfer fee and his salary, and Browne has cost slightly more than 500k between his fee and just half a season of his wages, and we didn’t even manage to get 90 minutes out of him, let alone 15 goals like Vokes has provided. I’m sure people will say, “Yeah but they’re investments who should turn a profit long-term”, but that’s not the point if the discussion is about budgets and spending for the 21/22 season in isolation. Even so, the point is that Kane cost what Vokes cost for the same period of time, only it would cost us more to get Kane back for even just a second season than it would cost Wycombe to keep Vokes for the same.

Anyway, just thought I’d comment since Vokes’ name came up and I’ve seen him held up as some sort of outrageous money pit a few times over the months. Plucky, plucky Oxford…

My point was simply that one year in The Championship has probably given Wycombe the clout to spend and bring in a calibre of player that historically they could only dream of (not for a second suggesting that it means that their budget exceeds ours). Point is that it looks from the outside that they've made signings based on a swift return to The Championship, or at least with the caveat or releasing one or two players should they not get there (and that if they don't, they may well fall away next year and beyond).

 

[Oufcrealist]

Only just seen this - I can actually tell you exactly how the Vokes deal is structured. Change into your jimjams while I pour you a glass of milk. Don’t make this weird.

Vokes was on 30k a week at Stoke who paid him half of his final year to leave (common practice and pretty standard percentage), while Wycombe then offered him 10k a week, so he’s earning nearly the same this season playing and scoring in L1 as he would’ve been earning while rotting in the reserves at Stoke. He does as you know have a second year option, but it’s multiple outcome based. There’s one option in his favour and one in the club’s favour, and both carry different wage amounts and are dependant on what division Wycombe are in. But ultimately, as it stands Wycombe have spent half a million quid on him for one year.

However, between wages and loan fees we have also spent half a million quid on Herbie Kane for one season, without even the possibility of keeping him for another year without spending at least the same again. Which is why it’s always funny seeing Wycombe held up (not by you, but certainly by some others) as some sort of big-spending behemoth while we’re just lucky to be competing with such extravagance. McGuane has cost us half a million quid this season between the transfer fee and his salary, and Browne has cost slightly more than 500k between his fee and just half a season of his wages, and we didn’t even manage to get 90 minutes out of him, let alone 15 goals like Vokes has provided. I’m sure people will say, “Yeah but they’re investments who should turn a profit long-term”, but that’s not the point if the discussion is about budgets and spending for the 21/22 season in isolation. Even so, the point is that Kane cost what Vokes cost for the same period of time, only it would cost us more to get Kane back for even just a second season than it would cost Wycombe to keep Vokes for the same.

Anyway, just thought I’d comment since Vokes’ name came up and I’ve seen him held up as some sort of outrageous money pit a few times over the months. Plucky, plucky Oxford…

And as Browne is being mentioned. I was told by a member of the backroom staff that a certain person was told not to push it bringing him back too early but went ahead anyway. We all know what happened.
Bad luck or bad management!?

 

[Essexyellows]

Only just seen this - I can actually tell you exactly how the Vokes deal is structured. Change into your jimjams while I pour you a glass of milk. Don’t make this weird.

Vokes was on 30k a week at Stoke who paid him half of his final year to leave (common practice and pretty standard percentage), while Wycombe then offered him 10k a week, so he’s earning nearly the same this season playing and scoring in L1 as he would’ve been earning while rotting in the reserves at Stoke. He does as you know have a second year option, but it’s multiple outcome based. There’s one option in his favour and one in the club’s favour, and both carry different wage amounts and are dependant on what division Wycombe are in. But ultimately, as it stands Wycombe have spent half a million quid on him for one year.

However, between wages and loan fees we have also spent half a million quid on Herbie Kane for one season, without even the possibility of keeping him for another year without spending at least the same again. Which is why it’s always funny seeing Wycombe held up (not by you, but certainly by some others) as some sort of big-spending behemoth while we’re just lucky to be competing with such extravagance. McGuane has cost us half a million quid this season between the transfer fee and his salary, and Browne has cost slightly more than 500k between his fee and just half a season of his wages, and we didn’t even manage to get 90 minutes out of him, let alone 15 goals like Vokes has provided. I’m sure people will say, “Yeah but they’re investments who should turn a profit long-term”, but that’s not the point if the discussion is about budgets and spending for the 21/22 season in isolation. Even so, the point is that Kane cost what Vokes cost for the same period of time, only it would cost us more to get Kane back for even just a second season than it would cost Wycombe to keep Vokes for the same.

Anyway, just thought I’d comment since Vokes’ name came up and I’ve seen him held up as some sort of outrageous money pit a few times over the months. Plucky, plucky Oxford…

Ready.................

 

[MarkG]

Ipswich to beat Rotherham. The former have next to no chance of making the play-offs. The latter, while they should still be challenging for 2nd place, could still be caught by us and fail to make the play-offs altogether. *Percentages trigger alert* It's a long shot, but our chances of the Play-Offs increased from 8% to 9% with Rotherham's defeat to Pompey last night. Not saying for a second we will catch them (we'd need to win our remaining 4) - but it's better for us for Ipswich to beat them.

I had to look at this a couple of times, I can't quite put it into words, but I get what you mean. If Ipswich catch us then we will have dropped too many points for the play-offs anyway, barring extremely unlikely results (almost all losses) for the play-off competitor teams above us.

 

[Essexyellows]

OK stats folk........... what are the chances it goes to the last game of the season??

It's what we live for really, that glimmer of hope, that tiny chance of turning it all around.......

 

[Sarge]

OK stats folk........... what are the chances it goes to the last game of the season??

It's what we live for really, that glimmer of hope, that tiny chance of turning it all around.......

win our next 3 and the chance of a playoff place will go to the last game (IMO)

 

[tonyw]

Rotherham are really blowing it. That's one win in seven for them now, and three defeats in a row.
Plus, they have a tough-ish end to the season with us, Ipswich & Sunderland still to play then a last day of the season visit to Gillingham, who may just be playing for their League One lives.

Unfortunately, they had too big of a gap for it to matter to us - even if we won all of our remaining games (which I think we have to, if we want a shot at the playoffs), I'm sure they'll still eke out at least the two points they need to finish above us.

But I'd say they are no longer favourites for the autos - or promotion at all - which was pretty unthinkable a month ago.

 

[Jolteon]

OK stats folk........... what are the chances it goes to the last game of the season??

It's what we live for really, that glimmer of hope, that tiny chance of turning it all around.......

Realistically pretty low. But this season has been anything but realistic if we're honest. Obviously lose any of our three leading up and the chances we're in it on the final day becomes basically zero bar several surprise results for our rivals.

If we do win our 3 games then Plymouth become hugely important. If Plymouth do their job and beat Sunderland and Wycombe, all we need is for Sunderland to drop points against one of Shrewsbury, Cambridge or Rotherham and it's possible come the final day with Sunderland on 80 points and us on 78. If we hold our higher GD into the final game then Sunderland will HAVE to win away at Morecambe to stay above us.

The other question marks in that scenario are Wycombe and Wednesday; will we need to overtake one of them too, or will we already be in 7th? That will be decided the week before as they play each other. If Wycombe win, we'll need to hope that two of Wycombe, Sunderland and possibly Wednesday (if they drop points to MK) fail to win on the final day. If Wednesday beat Wycombe then we'll be above Wycombe come the final day and, assuming Wednesday don't drop points to either Crewe or Fleetwood, we'll just need to hope Sunderland fail to win.

The other scenario is that Wycombe lose to Plymouth, and Wednesday lose to both Wycombe and MK. That would put both on 79 points on the final day and us on 78. We don't currently have a superior GD on Wednesday, but two defeats for them and 3 wins for us would likely put us on a higher GD, so again we're in a scenario of both sides having to win their final game to fight us off.

So crunching some numbers that I'm going to completely make up based on my tables thus far:

The big issue is us winning all 3 games. Fleetwood is probably 80% chance of us winning, Rotherham in their current form probably 50%, MK maybe 30%. Already we're down to a 12% chance just of us getting the results we need. We then have the two scenarios talked of above:

Scenario 1:
- I'd say the chances of Plymouth beating both Sunderland and Wycombe is probably about 50%.
- The chances of Sunderland dropping points to at least one of Shrewsbury, Cambridge or Rotherham are also probably about 50%.
- We then need one of the following scenarios to happen as well as both of the above; 1. Wycombe lose to Wednesday (probably 60% chance) 2. Wycombe beat Wednesday and Wednesday also lose to MK (maybe 30%). So roughly 45% chance one of these happens.

So the first scenario has around a 1.35% chance of happening.

Scenario 2:
- I'd say the chance of Wycombe losing to Plymouth is probably about 65%
- As above, the chances of Wednesday losing to both Wycombe and MK is maybe 30%

Which is roughly 2.34% chance of happening.



So in short, using a lot of ifs, and some completely made up numbers, I've come to the infallible scientific conclusion that the chances of us going into the final day with the ability to make it into the playoffs to be 1.35-2.34%.

 

[SteMerritt]

Realistically pretty low. But this season has been anything but realistic if we're honest. Obviously lose any of our three leading up and the chances we're in it on the final day becomes basically zero bar several surprise results for our rivals.

If we do win our 3 games then Plymouth become hugely important. If Plymouth do their job and beat Sunderland and Wycombe, all we need is for Sunderland to drop points against one of Shrewsbury, Cambridge or Rotherham and it's possible come the final day with Sunderland on 80 points and us on 78. If we hold our higher GD into the final game then Sunderland will HAVE to win away at Morecambe to stay above us.

The other question marks in that scenario are Wycombe and Wednesday; will we need to overtake one of them too, or will we already be in 7th? That will be decided the week before as they play each other. If Wycombe win, we'll need to hope that two of Wycombe, Sunderland and possibly Wednesday (if they drop points to MK) fail to win on the final day. If Wednesday beat Wycombe then we'll be above Wycombe come the final day and, assuming Wednesday don't drop points to either Crewe or Fleetwood, we'll just need to hope Sunderland fail to win.

The other scenario is that Wycombe lose to Plymouth, and Wednesday lose to both Wycombe and MK. That would put both on 79 points on the final day and us on 78. We don't currently have a superior GD on Wednesday, but two defeats for them and 3 wins for us would likely put us on a higher GD, so again we're in a scenario of both sides having to win their final game to fight us off.

So crunching some numbers that I'm going to completely make up based on my tables thus far:

The big issue is us winning all 3 games. Fleetwood is probably 80% chance of us winning, Rotherham in their current form probably 50%, MK maybe 30%. Already we're down to a 12% chance just of us getting the results we need. We then have the two scenarios talked of above:

Scenario 1:
- I'd say the chances of Plymouth beating both Sunderland and Wycombe is probably about 50%.
- The chances of Sunderland dropping points to at least one of Shrewsbury, Cambridge or Rotherham are also probably about 50%.
- We then need one of the following scenarios to happen as well as both of the above; 1. Wycombe lose to Wednesday (probably 60% chance) 2. Wycombe beat Wednesday and Wednesday also lose to MK (maybe 30%). So roughly 45% chance one of these happens.

So the first scenario has around a 1.35% chance of happening.

Scenario 2:
- I'd say the chance of Wycombe losing to Plymouth is probably about 65%
- As above, the chances of Wednesday losing to both Wycombe and MK is maybe 30%

Which is roughly 2.34% chance of happening.



So in short, using a lot of ifs, and some completely made up numbers, I've come to the infallible scientific conclusion that the chances of us going into the final day with the ability to make it into the playoffs to be 1.35-2.34%.

 

[McVicar]

Realistically pretty low. But this season has been anything but realistic if we're honest. Obviously lose any of our three leading up and the chances we're in it on the final day becomes basically zero bar several surprise results for our rivals.

If we do win our 3 games then Plymouth become hugely important. If Plymouth do their job and beat Sunderland and Wycombe, all we need is for Sunderland to drop points against one of Shrewsbury, Cambridge or Rotherham and it's possible come the final day with Sunderland on 80 points and us on 78. If we hold our higher GD into the final game then Sunderland will HAVE to win away at Morecambe to stay above us.

The other question marks in that scenario are Wycombe and Wednesday; will we need to overtake one of them too, or will we already be in 7th? That will be decided the week before as they play each other. If Wycombe win, we'll need to hope that two of Wycombe, Sunderland and possibly Wednesday (if they drop points to MK) fail to win on the final day. If Wednesday beat Wycombe then we'll be above Wycombe come the final day and, assuming Wednesday don't drop points to either Crewe or Fleetwood, we'll just need to hope Sunderland fail to win.

The other scenario is that Wycombe lose to Plymouth, and Wednesday lose to both Wycombe and MK. That would put both on 79 points on the final day and us on 78. We don't currently have a superior GD on Wednesday, but two defeats for them and 3 wins for us would likely put us on a higher GD, so again we're in a scenario of both sides having to win their final game to fight us off.

So crunching some numbers that I'm going to completely make up based on my tables thus far:

The big issue is us winning all 3 games. Fleetwood is probably 80% chance of us winning, Rotherham in their current form probably 50%, MK maybe 30%. Already we're down to a 12% chance just of us getting the results we need. We then have the two scenarios talked of above:

Scenario 1:
- I'd say the chances of Plymouth beating both Sunderland and Wycombe is probably about 50%.
- The chances of Sunderland dropping points to at least one of Shrewsbury, Cambridge or Rotherham are also probably about 50%.
- We then need one of the following scenarios to happen as well as both of the above; 1. Wycombe lose to Wednesday (probably 60% chance) 2. Wycombe beat Wednesday and Wednesday also lose to MK (maybe 30%). So roughly 45% chance one of these happens.

So the first scenario has around a 1.35% chance of happening.

Scenario 2:
- I'd say the chance of Wycombe losing to Plymouth is probably about 65%
- As above, the chances of Wednesday losing to both Wycombe and MK is maybe 30%

Which is roughly 2.34% chance of happening.



So in short, using a lot of ifs, and some completely made up numbers, I've come to the infallible scientific conclusion that the chances of us going into the final day with the ability to make it into the playoffs to be 1.35-2.34%.

I'm no mathematician but aren't you out with your percentages by a multiplier of 10? So we would have a 13.5% - 23.4% chance? Eg on your second scenario isn't 65% and 30% going to be 23.4% not 2.34%? Happy to be told I'm wrong though!

 

[SteMerritt]

I'm no mathematician but aren't you out with your percentages by a multiplier of 10? So we would have a 13.5% - 23.4% chance? Eg on your second scenario isn't 65% and 30% going to be 23.4% not 2.34%? Happy to be told I'm wrong though!

This does sound more realistic.

 

[werthersoriginal]

I'm no mathematician but aren't you out with your percentages by a multiplier of 10? So we would have a 13.5% - 23.4% chance? Eg on your second scenario isn't 65% and 30% going to be 23.4% not 2.34%? Happy to be told I'm wrong though!

Ha ha, I'm even less of a mathematician! I'm confused by how you're combining percentages! (Never mind though).

 

[Essexyellows]

Realistically pretty low. But this season has been anything but realistic if we're honest. Obviously lose any of our three leading up and the chances we're in it on the final day becomes basically zero bar several surprise results for our rivals.

If we do win our 3 games then Plymouth become hugely important. If Plymouth do their job and beat Sunderland and Wycombe, all we need is for Sunderland to drop points against one of Shrewsbury, Cambridge or Rotherham and it's possible come the final day with Sunderland on 80 points and us on 78. If we hold our higher GD into the final game then Sunderland will HAVE to win away at Morecambe to stay above us.

The other question marks in that scenario are Wycombe and Wednesday; will we need to overtake one of them too, or will we already be in 7th? That will be decided the week before as they play each other. If Wycombe win, we'll need to hope that two of Wycombe, Sunderland and possibly Wednesday (if they drop points to MK) fail to win on the final day. If Wednesday beat Wycombe then we'll be above Wycombe come the final day and, assuming Wednesday don't drop points to either Crewe or Fleetwood, we'll just need to hope Sunderland fail to win.

The other scenario is that Wycombe lose to Plymouth, and Wednesday lose to both Wycombe and MK. That would put both on 79 points on the final day and us on 78. We don't currently have a superior GD on Wednesday, but two defeats for them and 3 wins for us would likely put us on a higher GD, so again we're in a scenario of both sides having to win their final game to fight us off.

So crunching some numbers that I'm going to completely make up based on my tables thus far:

The big issue is us winning all 3 games. Fleetwood is probably 80% chance of us winning, Rotherham in their current form probably 50%, MK maybe 30%. Already we're down to a 12% chance just of us getting the results we need. We then have the two scenarios talked of above:

Scenario 1:
- I'd say the chances of Plymouth beating both Sunderland and Wycombe is probably about 50%.
- The chances of Sunderland dropping points to at least one of Shrewsbury, Cambridge or Rotherham are also probably about 50%.
- We then need one of the following scenarios to happen as well as both of the above; 1. Wycombe lose to Wednesday (probably 60% chance) 2. Wycombe beat Wednesday and Wednesday also lose to MK (maybe 30%). So roughly 45% chance one of these happens.

So the first scenario has around a 1.35% chance of happening.

Scenario 2:
- I'd say the chance of Wycombe losing to Plymouth is probably about 65%
- As above, the chances of Wednesday losing to both Wycombe and MK is maybe 30%

Which is roughly 2.34% chance of happening.



So in short, using a lot of ifs, and some completely made up numbers, I've come to the infallible scientific conclusion that the chances of us going into the final day with the ability to make it into the playoffs to be 1.35-2.34%.

Thank you.

Still a chance then.

 

[SteMerritt]

Ha ha, I'm even less of a mathematician! I'm confused by how you're combining percentages! (Never mind though).

I would have thought a 65% chance happening and a 30% chance would be 19.5% overall no? (65% x 30%). But then it's a bloody long time since I left school, I'm probably completely wrong