The bookies never get it wrong

m

Well-known member
Joined
8 Dec 2017
Messages
2,768
Bottom 3 of the Championship is noteworthy.

Notts County too.
 

Scotchegg

Well-known member
Joined
14 Dec 2017
Messages
5,648
The premier league and top of the championship are easier to predict with often huge differences between budgets. But below that the market is influenced more by the size of the club, and therefore the number of fans betting on their own club to get promoted. If 5000 Oxford fans bet a tenner on us getting promoted, our odds would drop regardless of the strength of our squad.

So in this case, and as the tables show from last year, bookies frequently do get it wrong!
 

AbbeyOx

Well-known member
Joined
15 Jan 2019
Messages
2,263
wouldn't be disappointed with finishing 9th. don't think we're anywhere near ready for championship football yet
 

MarkG

Well-known member
Joined
11 Dec 2017
Messages
1,393
The premier league and top of the championship are easier to predict with often huge differences between budgets. But below that the market is influenced more by the size of the club, and therefore the number of fans betting on their own club to get promoted. If 5000 Oxford fans bet a tenner on us getting promoted, our odds would drop regardless of the strength of our squad.

So in this case, and as the tables show from last year, bookies frequently do get it wrong!
Does anyone know what happens if you bet on for instance Bury to be relegated and they go bust and thrown out of the league before season-end? Is it void bet and stakes returned, or winner?

I read that at Ascot bookies were refusing to even take mutliple bets on Detorri winning races above four. Even though the odds were through the roof, it was such a popular bet that it would have cost them millions if it did come in.
 

ZeroTheHero

Well-known member
Joined
7 Dec 2017
Messages
5,052
How on earth can anyone make any sensible predictions given that most clubs are nowhere near finalising their teams? Especially ones like us who are missing key elements? If we manage to sign the players we need and add a few up and coming Prem youngsters on loan then yes, I can see us finishing somewhere within a few places of ninth, one way of the other. If we don't, then it will be a very different story. Is this chart based on a mixture of how teams did last year and their budget?
 

horseman

Well-known member
Joined
12 Dec 2017
Messages
1,790
Does anyone know what happens if you bet on for instance Bury to be relegated and they go bust and thrown out of the league before season-end? Is it void bet and stakes returned, or winner?

I read that at Ascot bookies were refusing to even take mutliple bets on Detorri winning races above four. Even though the odds were through the roof, it was such a popular bet that it would have cost them millions if it did come in.

Void bet as they would not have been relegated
 

Peterdev

Well-known member
Joined
17 Dec 2017
Messages
1,959
I think they’re way off the mark with that prediction Maurice. To be honest I’d be happy if they progress and finish top half.
They’re certainly better predicting the league than me.
For me, Liverpool will go all the way this time. I see they predict Bolton to get relegated, only because of the points deduction.
As for Oxford I think we will just scrape into the play offs but whether we are good enough to do well in the championship is another matter
 

holdsteady

Well-known member
Joined
8 Dec 2017
Messages
2,343
I suppose Bury and Bolton to struggle is a fair enough bet at the moment, both have hardly any players, are skint and Bolton are already 12 points behind.

Other than that can’t disagree with you, a team could sign 3 top class players a week from now (hopefully one near by) and be a totally different team.
 

tonyw

Well-known member
Joined
6 Dec 2017
Messages
1,680
I see they predict Bolton to get relegated, only because of the points deduction.

At the moment, Bolton have only seven senior players, I believe - and they haven't been paid since April. They literally have no defense (I presume they'll be fielding the youth team there). They had to cancel their last friendly.

I suspect, unless the administrators can close a takeover soon, that the club will go under.

But if they did try and play through the season with their current squad, then they'd probably be the first team to ever finish a season on negative points.
 

holdsteady

Well-known member
Joined
8 Dec 2017
Messages
2,343
Bury on -12 now as well, could well be just two relegation spots realistically this season.
 

Foley

Well-known member
Joined
7 Dec 2017
Messages
5,204
Bury on -12 now as well, could well be just two relegation spots realistically this season.
2 clubs will have it all to do and are in a real mess.
If they survive it could well be 2 places for relegation nearly sorted.
A shame - last seasons relegation battle was very exciting even if we were in.it for a while.
 

tonyw

Well-known member
Joined
6 Dec 2017
Messages
1,680
I may be being overly optimistic, but it seems to me that this year's League One should be much easier than last year's.

First, there's the two basket case clubs in Bolton & Bury who - unless they sort out their ownership pronto - are either going to go bust or go down (given the combination of their points deduction and their lack of players).

But then we lost a bunch of the bigger clubs in the division last year in one direction or the other, with most of the financially smaller clubs in the division staying up. I have massive respect for everything John Coleman has achieved at Accrington, but with such a small budget, I find it hard to imagine them competing at the top of the table. Same, to a lesser extent, being true of the likes of Rochdale, Tranmere, AFC Wombles and Wycombe.

Don't get me wrong - it's still a tough league. Just not as tough, week in-week out, as our first three seasons in it have been.
 

Foley

Well-known member
Joined
7 Dec 2017
Messages
5,204
I may be being overly optimistic, but it seems to me that this year's League One should be much easier than last year's.

First, there's the two basket case clubs in Bolton & Bury who - unless they sort out their ownership pronto - are either going to go bust or go down (given the combination of their points deduction and their lack of players).

But then we lost a bunch of the bigger clubs in the division last year in one direction or the other, with most of the financially smaller clubs in the division staying up. I have massive respect for everything John Coleman has achieved at Accrington, but with such a small budget, I find it hard to imagine them competing at the top of the table. Same, to a lesser extent, being true of the likes of Rochdale, Tranmere, AFC Wombles and Wycombe.

Don't get me wrong - it's still a tough league. Just not as tough, week in-week out, as our first three seasons in it have been.
Certainly it looks easier to get into the top half.
It is possible that Sunderland will get their act together and walk it. Pompey, Ipswich and Rotherham should be up there and Peterborough, Doncaster are likely to be top half as well.
Then other than Lincoln as outsiders who is likely to challenge for the play offs?
 

beyondthefourth

Well-known member
Joined
7 Dec 2017
Messages
2,552
Certainly it looks easier to get into the top half.
It is possible that Sunderland will get their act together and walk it. Pompey, Ipswich and Rotherham should be up there and Peterborough, Doncaster are likely to be top half as well.
Then other than Lincoln as outsiders who is likely to challenge for the play offs?
Coventry and Blackpool have good squads, if they can overcome their off-field issues.
 
Top Bottom