Matches League One xG table

[werthersoriginal]

To be fair there’s been loads of games this season where we’ve been the better team and deserved to win, but didn’t. I don’t have a fancy formula for that though

Not sure about better, but there have been lots of games where there hasn't been much in it but we've lost 1-0. I guess xG is a 'science' way of accounting for what we see in that sort of game.

 

[Malc]

If you divide the pitch into a grid, the value for each square can be derived by this simple formula
View attachment 13089

Oh, that's easy.

 

[Shosho]

Expected Threat is straight forward as it values events which increase the probability of scoring in the next few actions.

The pitch is cut into a grid and assigned a value - high value areas, like xG in the centre and close to goal, low value out wide and further away from goal. Moving the ball to high value areas == good.

It has value as not all actions result in a shot, crosses across the box, dribbles etc can indicate good stuff has been happening but not always having the desired outcome.

 

[ZeroTheHero]

xT is based on the premise that you have a varying chance of scoring depending on where you are on the pitch and you increase (or decrease) that chance by moving the ball towards (or away from) the opposition goal.

If you divide the pitch into a grid, the value for each square can be derived by this simple formula
View attachment 13089

Or, as they had it in the 1920's - the ball goes back to square one

 

[tonyw]

Games gone, and this pish is why.

Statistics say we should be 7th.

Lack of sticking the round thing in the net says we are 19th.

Goals win games.

Understanding these sorts of advanced statistics is what's got Brentford into the top ten of the Premier League.

The xG stats are not saying that we should be 7th - but they are saying that we're actually creating a reasonable number of quality chances, just not putting enough of them away (and that our defense is solid but unexceptional). That in itself ain't rocket science, because we can all see with our own eyes that our finishing this season has been God awful. So I'm not sure that it helps much when you're watching all the games.

Where it helps is when you're signing players, and you can't watch every game that every player plays. What clubs like Brentford do is build models for hundreds if not thousands of players, where they take these advanced stats, crank them through their models to produce an estimate of their value, look to see how that compares to the asking price for the player and then sign the bargains.

It clearly works, and I bet it will keep working until everyone across football does the same.
It's Moneyball again - using statistical analysis to identify market inefficiencies and then capitalizing on them.

 

[MJB]

Or, as they had it in the 1920's - the ball goes back to square one

View attachment 13110

You could probably sell that Radio Times cover to Michael Cox for a pretty penny.

 

[bashamwonderland]

You could probably sell that Radio Times cover to Michael Cox for a pretty penny.

Your profile pic FFS

 

[MJB]

Your profile pic FFS

This season has felt a bit like a journey on the Titanic to be fair.