Matches League One xG table

[southlondonyellow]

I realise many people don’t think much of xG (expected goals), and I think that’s fair over a short period of a game or two. However, I think over larger periods it does tend to show more.

Anyway, I’ve just seen the ‘xG table’ for league one so far this season, and I found it interesting so thought I’d share.

As you can see, Oxford are 7th which is somewhat surprising, and only our relegation rivals Accrington Stanley have a worse performance versus xG than us this season.

 

[MJB]

What’s about Expected Threat?

Interesting to hear that Manning values xT over xG and we saw it again yesterday with Murphy putting in a superb low cross which ran across the six yard box between keeper and defenders.

 

[werthersoriginal]

I realise many people don’t think much of xG (expected goals), and I think that’s fair over a short period of a game or two. However, I think over larger periods it does tend to show more.

Anyway, I’ve just seen the ‘xG table’ for league one so far this season, and I found it interesting so thought I’d share.

As you can see, Oxford are 7th which is somewhat surprising, and only our relegation rivals Accrington Stanley have a worse performance versus xG than us this season.

View attachment 13079

It's too late to ask what XG really means, I know. What it's basically saying is that we 'should' be in our natural place of seventh, I assume.

 

[Osei Yaw]

It's too late to ask what XG really means, I know. What it's basically saying is that we 'should' be in our natural place of seventh, I assume.

I think it's basically saying that we have missed a lot of chances we should've scored this season.

 

[ZeroTheHero]

Not sure we need xG to tell us that over the course of the season we haven't had decent, fit strikers enough of the time!

 

[werthersoriginal]

I think it's basically saying that we have missed a lot of chances we should've scored this season.

Yes I'm sure that's right. Interesting to see Lincoln are bottom but have actually done OK - they looked very poor at our place but stuck two away and repelled us without too much trouble.

 

[Carpy]

Yes I'm sure that's right. Interesting to see Lincoln are bottom but have actually done OK - they looked very poor at our place but stuck two away and repelled us without too much trouble.

Scored a goal less than us as well, lots of small margin victories, was always a risk with the way Karl liked to play, if the goals dried up like they did, you weren't robust enough to keep them out the other end.

 

[southlondonyellow]

What’s about Expected Threat?

Interesting to hear that Manning values xT over xG and we saw it again yesterday with Murphy putting in a superb low cross which ran across the six yard box between keeper and defenders.

No idea, that’s a new one to me!

 

[MJB]

No idea, that’s a new one to me!

I'm sure one of Forum nerds data analysts will be able to assist at some point!

Would be genuinely interesting to see though as XG, like any data set, has it's limitations given the variables involved with twenty players booting a pigskin around!

 

[yellowbow]

Can I ask… is there an expected goal difference and is it worth an expected extra point..?

 

[Oxymoron]

xT is based on the premise that you have a varying chance of scoring depending on where you are on the pitch and you increase (or decrease) that chance by moving the ball towards (or away from) the opposition goal.

If you divide the pitch into a grid, the value for each square can be derived by this simple formula

 

[Pompeyyellows]

xT is based on the premise that you have a varying chance of scoring depending on where you are on the pitch and you increase (or decrease) that chance by moving the ball towards (or away from) the opposition goal.

If you divide the pitch into a grid, the value for each square can be derived by this simple formula
View attachment 13089

WOW thats blown my mind.

There's me thinking i understood football. LOL

I spose we have to move with the times now. Gone are the days where performances were judged by how many you stuck in the onion bag, and how few you let into your onion bag.

Ain't got a clue what it all means. lol

 

[Essexyellows]

Games gone, and this pish is why.

Statistics say we should be 7th.

Lack of sticking the round thing in the net says we are 19th.

Goals win games.

 

[bashamwonderland]

xT is based on the premise that you have a varying chance of scoring depending on where you are on the pitch and you increase (or decrease) that chance by moving the ball towards (or away from) the opposition goal.

If you divide the pitch into a grid, the value for each square can be derived by this simple formula
View attachment 13089

Finally someone breaks it down into plain English.

 

[werthersoriginal]

xT is based on the premise that you have a varying chance of scoring depending on where you are on the pitch and you increase (or decrease) that chance by moving the ball towards (or away from) the opposition goal.

If you divide the pitch into a grid, the value for each square can be derived by this simple formula
View attachment 13089

Ah, that looks like maths. Get you, Rishi Sunak

 

[holdsteady]

Games gone, and this pish is why.

Statistics say we should be 7th.

Lack of sticking the round thing in the net says we are 19th.

Goals win games.

The eye test this season also says we should be 19th, watched us enough to know that we have never been anywhere near good enough to be 7th.

Weird to have a table to show where you should be when it’s a sport with a system which actually already shows you where you are, it’s utterly pointless.

 

[Essexyellows]

The eye test this season also says we should be 19th, watched us enough to know that we have never been anywhere near good enough to be 7th.

Weird to have a table to show where you should be when it’s a sport with a system which actually already shows you where you are, it’s utterly pointless.

Seen a few other teams play over the season and many of them look far, far better than we have.

We might be starting to put that right and we have undoubted talent in the squad but it`s all been far too little and far too late.

How any of the owners/senior folk couldn`t see, or care, that something was seriously wrong is beyond me.

Maybe KR was just emailing the xG and other numbers to them every week accompanied by a waffling email.

 

[RyanioBirdio]

The eye test this season also says we should be 19th, watched us enough to know that we have never been anywhere near good enough to be 7th.

Weird to have a table to show where you should be when it’s a sport with a system which actually already shows you where you are, it’s utterly pointless.

Yeah but the real table might get you sacked so it’s best to pretend it isn’t very important.

 

[IsleofWightYellow]

To be fair there’s been loads of games this season where we’ve been the better team and deserved to win, but didn’t. I don’t have a fancy formula for that though

 

[holdsteady]

To be fair there’s been loads of games this season where we’ve been the better team and deserved to win, but didn’t. I don’t have a fancy formula for that though

That’s very subjective though, we never win a game where the opposing manager doesn’t claim that if it wasn’t for a bad decision for our first goal by the ref then they would of gone onto win.

I think it’s best just to stay in the real world and get results there, rather than the world of excuses that football managers live in.