International News Covid-19 .....

[YellowTaxi]

You think that was a good call, do you @Essexyellows?
“ why all the fuss?”

At least 20000 people have died (and there’s good reason to think the true figure might be twice that) frontline staff in hospitals and care homes don’t have adequate protection and using the official figures nearly 4 times as many people have died in this country than in Germany which has a larger population and earlier infection.

 

[Essexyellows]

You think that was a good call, do you @Essexyellows?
“ why all the fuss?”

At least 20000 people have died (and there’s good reason to think the true figure might be twice that) frontline staff in hospitals and care homes don’t have adequate protection and using the official figures nearly 4 times as many people have died in this country than in Germany which has a larger population and earlier infection.

Question, hence the question mark.......... not a statement.
Yet another person reading without thinking. This is a forum, it relies on discussion.
Discussions often start with a question..............ergo: "Why all the fuss?" a discussion has since followed....its how it works.

FYI: Roughly 1,800 people die every single day in the UK. 12,600 a week. 655k a year.

Yes it`s desperately sad that people have died but that is what happens in a pandemic.

 

[werthersoriginal]

Question, hence the question mark.......... not a statement.
Yet another person reading without thinking. This is a forum, it relies on discussion.
Discussions often start with a question..............ergo: "Why all the fuss?" a discussion has since followed....its how it works.

FYI: Roughly 1,800 people die every single day in the UK. 12,600 a week. 655k a year.

Yes it`s desperately sad that people have died but that is what happens in a pandemic.

These are EXCESS deaths. Extra. As well as the ones that happen every day. Lots more than those in advanced countries. You can't admit the government has mishandled it, because then you might have to face up to their fallibility in other areas.

 

[Briggsy]

Second

You think that was a good call, do you @Essexyellows?
“ why all the fuss?”

At least 20000 people have died (and there’s good reason to think the true figure might be twice that) frontline staff in hospitals and care homes don’t have adequate protection and using the official figures nearly 4 times as many people have died in this country than in Germany which has a larger population and earlier infection.

Second comment on this thread was me saying, "Couldn't agree more." I was badly wrong.

Without the fuss even more would be dead. While I think the eventual IFR will be low, the fact that it's so contagious makes it much more serious.

 

[chuckbert]

Indeed.
Growing number of papers in the literature giving predicted case fatality rates of between .05 and 0.4%. This in indeed comparable to the range seen in seasonal flu seasons (i.e a "good" on to a "bad" one).
That's of course not to say, we shouldn't treat this infection with some respect as it comparable to flu, as I don't agree with the statement "just a flu". Flu is actually a serious infection, and gives a predicted 290k to 650K death a year world wide. However, the fact we don't shut our economy down for flu, does make the response look somewhat disproportionate (before i get hounded by the lock-down brigade, i'm not saying it is the wrong response, I am just saying it is disproportionate to how we respond to endemic infectious disease).

Here’s a great article in Scientific American about why this is not just a flu, and to think through some of these numbers carefully.

Comparing COVID-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is like Comparing Apples to Oranges

The former are actual numbers; the latter are inflated statistical estimates

blogs.scientificamerican.com

 

[LondonRoader]

These are EXCESS deaths. Extra. As well as the ones that happen every day. Lots more than those in advanced countries. You can't admit the government has mishandled it, because then you might have to face up to their fallibility in other areas.

Are you suggesting any other government might have done better in this unknown situation?
Do you think this government has handled this whole situation wrongly?
Has the government done anything right in this crisis?

 

[Briggsy]

My answers to those questions would be:

Are you suggesting any other government might have done better in this unknown situation?
Yes.

Do you think this government has handled this whole situation wrongly?
Yes.

Has the government done anything right in this crisis?
Yes - realising it got its response wrong at first.

 

[werthersoriginal]

Are you suggesting any other government might have done better in this unknown situation?
Do you think this government has handled this whole situation wrongly?
Has the government done anything right in this crisis?

Most other governments have done better. Our planning and stockpiling were poor and the reaction in March was too slow and laid back.
Lockdown was too late and hasn't been enforced.
Protection of care homes has been non-existent and will become a major scandal that will I hope end the careers of several politicians.
Has it done anything right? Yes, the pay compensation for furloughed workers scheme is as generous as anything Labour could have come up with and I think they've adopted a good reassurring, humane tone.

 

[chuckbert]

Are you suggesting any other government might have done better in this unknown situation?

Like the German govt? Or Australian? Or South Korean?

 

[LondonRoader]

Most other governments have done better. Our planning and stockpiling were poor and the reaction in March was too slow and laid back.
Lockdown was too late and hasn't been enforced.
Protection of care homes has been non-existent and will become a major scandal that will I hope end the careers of several politicians.
Has it done anything right? Yes, the pay compensation for furloughed workers scheme is as generous as anything Labour could have come up with and I think they've adopted a good reassurring, humane tone.

To clarify, when I said any other government, I meant any other political party in this country.

 

[LondonRoader]

Like the German govt? Or Australian? Or South Korean?

I'm not sure they would of got the required votes to get voted in..

 

[chuckbert]

These are EXCESS deaths. Extra. As well as the ones that happen every day. Lots more than those in advanced countries. You can't admit the government has mishandled it, because then you might have to face up to their fallibility in other areas.

Here’s a nice article on excess deaths, using England and Wales data. In a week where there would normally be 10,000 deaths, there have been 26,000 this year. Around the world, the number of deaths is about 1.5x expected numbers. That is the true and direct impact of covid, and that has happened during a huge effort to limit transmission.

 

[YellowTaxi]

Question, hence the question mark.......... not a statement.
Yet another person reading without thinking. This is a forum, it relies on discussion.
Discussions often start with a question..............ergo: "Why all the fuss?" a discussion has since followed....its how it works.

FYI: Roughly 1,800 people die every single day in the UK. 12,600 a week. 655k a year.

Yes it`s desperately sad that people have died but that is what happens in a pandemic.

it's what happens in a mismanaged pandemic.

No other political party -would have been so keen to score points. Until at least late March Johnson and co were keen to show their independence form Europe, ridiculing the Italian response, refusing to get involved i joint procurement- pretending they'd lost the emails and bragging as Johnson did that he'd been shaking hands with COVid 19 sufferers and major events continued- Crufts dogshow, Cheltenham Races, the Champions League game with Madrid and so many more.

Nor would any other party have taken scientific advice from a political advisor with no science qualifications.

 

[chuckbert]

To clarify, when I said any other government, I meant any other political party in this country.

But there’s no comparison to make. All we can do is compare apples with apples. And the Uk apples seem a bit sour. Surely the govt have to take responsibility rather than their fans spouting “it would be shitter under Corbyn”.

 

[chuckbert]

I'm not sure they would of got the required votes to get voted in..

More’s the pity, apparently.

 

[ZeroTheHero]

Yes, the 'Corbyn would have done worse' argument is a poor one. I personally have no confidence that he would have done any better if he was in charge- but he WAS NOT. And however well or badly he *might* have handled this should make absolutely no difference to the scrutiny of how the people who ARE in charge have done. If Matt Taylor misses an open goal, 'Phil Trainer would have missed by a wider margin' is not an excuse!

An equally poor trope is the 'hindsight' one. Every single decision in every walk of life can only be judged on the outcome - that is by definition 'hindsight'. Robbie Hall decides to go for a slightly speculative shot from outside the box vs Swindon. As his foot hit the ball, was that a good decision? Didn't look like it at first! WAS that a good decision? Yes because it went in - 'hindsight''. If it had gone over the bar (like it looked like it would), was taking the shot a good decision? No - hindsight again! So it's no good saying when people are criticising how this is being handled that it's 'hindsight' because the judgement is being made on the results of the decisions!!!

 

[Essexyellows]

I`m waiting for the next "hurrah" from those diametrically opposed to "The Government" around testing and the 100k target.
So they set a target, if they don`t they lack ambition if they do they get hoisted by it!
The capacity to do 100k tests is in place but there is a massive set of caveats.
1. Swab test - only useful if you are symptomatic.
2. Blood test (Antigen) - only used on inpatients.
3. Blood test (Antibody) - currently not worth the effort, time or cost, it is too inaccurate to identify Cov-19 specifically. Neither does it have the required scale.
Although the Abbott home testing kit may have resolved that one, that is a game changer if it has. <--------- NB for future non-contextual quotes!
4. You can`t force people to go.
5. They aren`t testing asymptomatic people (see 1).

Untangle that one if you wish............

 

[chuckbert]

Untangle that one if you wish............

So are you saying they fucked up the timing?

 

[radicalox]

Here’s a great article in Scientific American about why this is not just a flu, and to think through some of these numbers carefully.

Comparing COVID-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is like Comparing Apples to Oranges

The former are actual numbers; the latter are inflated statistical estimates

blogs.scientificamerican.com

Thanks for sharing, interesting, but this opinion piece by a particular clinician is not entirely convincing in my view. The reason the CDC use modelling to predict Influenza deaths is because Influenza deaths are so highly unreported, for reasons that well described in the link provided within the article and elsewhere. I can assure you the CDC are a very component organisation, and in this area they do know what they are doing (of course that not saying they are perfect in anyway, and they should of course be open to scrutiny). Covid19 on the other hand is very well reported. So it is not valid to compare the “confirmed” Influenza deaths with the covid19 deaths confirmed deaths, as the covid19 deaths are much more likely to be captured directly.

I am not saying flu is "just a flu". Flu is a serious infectious disease. So a comparison of covid19 to Influenza isn't necessary diminishing the importance of covid19. My point was our response is disproportionate.

 

[QR]

Yes, the 'Corbyn would have done worse' argument is a poor one. I personally have no confidence that he would have done any better if he was in charge- but he WAS NOT. And however well or badly he *might* have handled this should make absolutely no difference to the scrutiny of how the people who ARE in charge have done. If Matt Taylor misses an open goal, 'Phil Trainer would have missed by a wider margin' is not an excuse!

Love the Matt Taylor/Phil Trainer analogy.