If it helps, he gets 3 points a game quite a lot too.
Current Player #9 Mark Harris
- Thread starter Northstandboy
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Not really sure what we’re arguing about here. I think we can all agree that Harris plays an important part in the team being as effective as it is, while also acknowledging that he fundamentally isn’t as clinical as the top strikers in this level are. I think everyone by and large agrees that he still has an important part to play in this side, while also observing that we could do with someone else who puts away half chances to help us put games to bed.
I think the interesting discussion is the profile of striker we get in in January to supplement him (a target I think we’re all on the same page as thinking we need). I see the temptation of going for a Marriott-type player, a Matty Taylor type who will put away half chances. But I think that would significantly impact the way we do play. At the same time a big target man type would be helpful, a more effective GOD, but perhaps wouldn’t address the goal scoring need I think we do have.
For me it is the former. As I said in the MDT, I do really like Harris and appreciate what he does, but it tipped me into the school of thought that he’ll never be a finisher. People keep saying he’s a confidence player and will go on a run, but he scored a really good Mark Harris-type goal on Tuesday (playing off the shoulder of the defender, ball into the channel) and then still looked like a rabbit in headlights whenever he was through on goal on Saturday. If scoring goals isn’t going to spark him into life, what will? It was a match that really shone a light on just how damaging his lack of confidence in front of goal could be - it wasn’t the first match this season where we really should have been out of sight with the chances we created, but came dangerously close to dropping points because Harris in particular wasn’t clinical enough.
It’s not a slight on Harris to say that adding eg Marriott or JCH in January would, it feels, seriously improve our promotion chances.
I think the interesting discussion is the profile of striker we get in in January to supplement him (a target I think we’re all on the same page as thinking we need). I see the temptation of going for a Marriott-type player, a Matty Taylor type who will put away half chances. But I think that would significantly impact the way we do play. At the same time a big target man type would be helpful, a more effective GOD, but perhaps wouldn’t address the goal scoring need I think we do have.
For me it is the former. As I said in the MDT, I do really like Harris and appreciate what he does, but it tipped me into the school of thought that he’ll never be a finisher. People keep saying he’s a confidence player and will go on a run, but he scored a really good Mark Harris-type goal on Tuesday (playing off the shoulder of the defender, ball into the channel) and then still looked like a rabbit in headlights whenever he was through on goal on Saturday. If scoring goals isn’t going to spark him into life, what will? It was a match that really shone a light on just how damaging his lack of confidence in front of goal could be - it wasn’t the first match this season where we really should have been out of sight with the chances we created, but came dangerously close to dropping points because Harris in particular wasn’t clinical enough.
It’s not a slight on Harris to say that adding eg Marriott or JCH in January would, it feels, seriously improve our promotion chances.
Do we though?
We've scored the most goals in the division (31 in 16) which is a scoring rate that puts us on pace for 89 - which would comfortably eclipse any of Karl Robinson's teams, and indeed would be more than Appleton's League Two promotion side managed - despite both of those clubs having an elite goalscorer, which we currently lack.
I keep harping on about last year's Plymouth team, but I really do think they're a side that we can realistically emulate. And their top scorer in the league (Ryan Hardie) scored 13 goals. And they got 101 points.
We need another striker as competition/depth for Harris - but in my opinion it is more important to bring someone in who can contribute effectively to our all-around play even if they're not an elite finisher than a pure out-and-out goalscorer that won't (both would be great - but probably not realistic on a League One budget, unless we happen to strike gold on some loanee/lower division kid)
Also, yes - if Harris had his shooting boots on then we would have scored at least five on Saturday (he missed three gilt-edged chances.....missed two of them twice......but one of those RR thumped in the rebound). But we shouldn't need five goals to win. If we had conceded an equalizer, I would have been more angry with our frankly dozy defending, and failure to deal with relatively simple deep floating crosses, for the first two goals.
YellowinBirmingham
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Yes @Osei Yaw . This is all on the Fotmob website and it's really interesting (to me - I'm not sure the Mighty Aldo is as into stats as I am).
His first goal at Derby only had an xG of 0.11. But he hit it high and hard and it had an XGoT of 0.72. He made an OK chance a really good one.
He had two chances against Barnsley which were saved. These had xG of 0.11 and 0.12, so almost identical to the first Derby goal in terms of chances of scoring. But they had XGoT ratings of only 0.20 and 0.24, so he didn't hit them or place them as well as the chance against Derby. He gave the keepers much more of a chance to save.
The Orient chance was different. This had an xG of 0.57 and his finish was weak, he really gave the keeper a chance to save it (xGoT = 0.22). And that's where the concern comes from. He's tucked away three relatively tricky chances and has missed the easier ones. Including four really good chances against Orient (the xG says the miss one-on-one against Shrewsbury and miss against Wycombe were also very good chances). I can see why people are worried. I still trust in him at this point.
Upthecowboys
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Out of interest what was his XG on Sat? I would have thought it was 3 XG for him on Saturday alone..
YellowinBirmingham
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1.66. Almost as high as all the rest of the league season combined.
Joey
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What about when he's not there as a ball comes across the box? Saturday he was played in by Bodin, took it a bit wide and slowed down so he didn't even get a shot away, no xG or xGot but it was a chance.
Also how is xGoT derived? I'd be interested to see it from Saturday. He had two double chances, presumably it then counts twice, even though a better finish first time and the second chance is irrelevant. Also I don't know how advanced the statistics are, for the second he had two shots from around the edge of the six yard box, by definition once he's hit them they're probably very high xGoT even thought they've both gone straight at the keeper. I like stats but as ever you need to know how they come about and be able to apply context to them or they're worthless.
I'm very much in the middle with Harris. He brings a lot to our game in all round play, stretching defenders and being a nuisance. His link up play is alright as well, nothing exceptional but no mug. However it can't be argued that he's a clinical finisher or a goalscorer, there's ample evidence here and in his career history to show that's simply not the case. Part of scoring goals isn't just how efficient you are when you get a chance but how good you are at sniffing out chances. I also don't hold much truck in the argument that it would need a drastic change to how we play to have him scoring goals or that it doesn't matter because the rest of the team are, it seems a cop out to me. You'd be expecting too much for him to be on 11/12 now given his role and how we play but it's absolutely not unreasonable to expect him to be on 6 or so and have scored a league goal since the Derby game in mid August.
Joey
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This is where context needs to be added and where there is a weakness in how it's all calculated. The Derby chance seems about right to me, it was a half chance that he took quickly and very well. The second chance at Barnsley though was much easier, ball played across to him, no defender in sight and the keeper scrambling. I can't be having that you'd only expect a player to score once every 8 or 9 times when presented with this
Attachments
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think that the xG calculation brings goalkeeper positioning into account?
It's all about where you are, and how the ball is played into you, but I don't think it's complex enough to also model what position the opposition players are in to stop you?
Which, of course, means its only of very high level use, and not the be all and end all.
Northernyellow
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Ha! You can argue xG etc all you like, but that doesn't alter the basics. He's a decent player who can't finish. And never has been able to.
He could at Derby? Decent finish last week in EFL Trophy game too.
Northernyellow
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A career average of about 1:9, and a couple of goals in the Tinpot Trophy, with two (?) in L1 this season. He's a decent player, but panics when he gets a chance. I was at Orient. His all round play was good. His finishing was woeful. He's never been a prolific goalscorer and never will be. He's not good enough as our first choice forward, if we're serious about getting promoted.
Northernyellow
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I was laughed at for the Pat Hoban comparison! But it's not far off. Plus Ryan Taylor. Andy Scott. All half decent players who did lots of good things but couldn't score
Grumpy Git
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I hope he keeps off this forum, reading some of the comments on here you’d think we were bottom of the table. He’s doing a job and yes we’d like him to be scoring week in week out, but he’s not an out and out striker, if he was he wouldn’t be here. Give the guy a break.
Ryan Taylor was almost an ever-present in the first half of our last promotion season until he got hurt (and Hoban made 30+ appearances that season as well). Despite the obvious limitations that both of them had in the goalscoring department, we still scored 105 goals in all competitions that year.
Think you're right, he sometimes does panic when he gets a chance. This is his first season playing regular minutes as a striker afterall, but his pace, movement and ball striking ability leaves me in little doubt that, with experience, he will start to score regularly.
Carlislehotdog
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Ryan Taylor was chuffing great, and Harris is too. We're one point off the top, joint top scorers, and Harris has been a big part of that.
NY, I respect your views and your right to express them. But do you really need to go on and on about Mark Harris? Anyone who visits this forum on anything like a regular basis will know your opinion of him as a striker. Can't you give it a rest, if only for a little while, please?
And yet with him as first choice forward we've beaten Derby and Barnsley away, are joint top scorers and sit second in the league, a point off the top a third of the way through the season. At what point do you acknowledge many of the goals scored by others are created because of having someone like him in the side?
Northernyellow
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My lips are now sealed!
