League One survival?

I've seen a lot of people think we will get something at Wigan after today; I feel that people are getting a bit giddy to be honest. Wigan are really flying and I can't see much apart from a loss there. That said I can see us getting 4 points from the rest and then I think we will be clear.

I imagine we are clear now anyway but I want to see us get something just to give us a bit of excitement going into the break and some enthusiasm around Robinson. The players are playing for contracts now so we ought to see some interesting displays (NB: interesting is not always positive)
 
As has been proven, teams at the bottom of the leagues form is sketchy at best. While MK Dons had some form, it's gone recently. We're not out of it, but we're not deep in it either. Certainly nowhere near as bad as some of the doom merchants wanted to believe
 
We can win at Wigan, we won at St Andrews didn’t we? (although the results were the other way round).
 
Personally I think the bottom 3 are gone as far as we are concerned. We need to avoid defeat against Rochdale but Walsall are in bad form and losing a 2-0 lead will be a hammer blow to them.
 
Bottom 3 won't catch us:

Bury, already gone.
Northampton, 7 behind and terrible gd. 3 games left and would need to win them all.
MK, 8 behind and much worse gd. Would need to win at least 3 of their 4 games.

So, we just have to finish ahead of one of Rochdale, Oldham, Walsall, Wimbledon, Gillingham, or even Southend!

Rochdale to win 2 home games (Oldham & Bradford) to get 51..... Plus they play us... A draw puts them on 52. Gd similar to ours.

Oldham all 5 games against bottom half teams. So, beat Doncaster at home and Northampton away, to get 52 points.

Walsall, 1 home game left, against Northampton, so win to get 51 points.

AFC to win their 2 homes games (Oldham & Bury) to get 54.

Gillingham have 3 tough games, and home to Blackpool. 1 point to get to 53.

Southend, home to Mk, so 3 points and 56 total.

We draw with Doncaster and Rochdale.

Final positions

15 Southend 56 pts
16 Wimbledon 54 pts
17 Gillingham 53 pts
18 Oxford 52 pts
19 Rochdale 52 pts
20 Oldham 52 pts
------
21 Walsall 51 pts
22 Northampton 46 pts
23 MK 44 pts
24 Bury

Very tight for the final relegation spot!
 
If nothing else, the onus is absolutely going to be on Rochdale to come to the Kass and play for the win, with the likely consequence that there’ll be space for us to exploit ourselves.
 
Mojofilter said:
I've seen a lot of people think we will get something at Wigan after today; I feel that people are getting a bit giddy to be honest. Wigan are really flying and I can't see much apart from a loss there. That said I can see us getting 4 points from the rest and then I think we will be clear.

I imagine we are clear now anyway but I want to see us get something just to give us a bit of excitement going into the break and some enthusiasm around Robinson. The players are playing for contracts now so we ought to see some interesting displays (NB: interesting is not always positive)
Click to expand...
We might keep a point out of this game if we keep the score down.
 
KL has said part of problem is the large squad. He says we have 34. Well, we do if you count everyone out on loan but we’ve also had quite bad injuries. For most of the season we’ve had 24 available (including players like Napa, Ashby & Carroll who are well on the fringes) which is about right. Nelson, Pekalski and Hall injured for most of the season making 27. I’ve listed them below. KL saying 20 is enough which I think doesn’t account for injuries and developing younger players.

Ricci, Mous, Dickie, Martin, Williamson, ASB, IBR, Carroll, Brannagan, Pekalski, Ledson, Ruffels, Henry, Ashby, Mowatt, GVK, Obika, Thomas, Mehmeti, Rothwell, Napa, Nelson, Hall, Eastwood, Shearer, Tiendali, Kane

I’d 100% get rid of Obika, Tiendali, GVK, Mehmeti, IBR, ASB, Martin, Williamson, Shearer (Stevens to replace) and of those on loan -Hemmings & Raglan. I think if we had a few youngsters out on loan, we need 9 new guys in the building (most of them forward players and wing backs!) I’d offer a contract to keep Mowatt.
 
I missed KR’s interview after the game, what did he say about Rothwell? How bad is his injury, will we see him back available soon?
 
I don't remember him saying anything specific about Rothwell, could be wrong. The interview's on the iPlayer radio app for phones but not on the website yet. He said he's going to play around with the side for Wigan as it's a 'free hit'.
 
Davox said:
I’d 100% get rid of Obika, Tiendali, GVK, Mehmeti, IBR, ASB, Martin, Williamson, Shearer (Stevens to replace) and of those on loan -Hemmings & Raglan. I think if we had a few youngsters out on loan, we need 9 new guys in the building (most of them forward players and wing backs!) I’d offer a contract to keep Mowatt.
Click to expand...

Disagree on this, does Stevens (and the other youth keepers) no favours to get splinters instead of going out on loan and getting match practice. If Shearer is happy here he can stay on as back-up.
 
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ljs said:
Bottom 3 won't catch us:

Bury, already gone.
Northampton, 7 behind and terrible gd. 3 games left and would need to win them all.
MK, 8 behind and much worse gd. Would need to win at least 3 of their 4 games.

So, we just have to finish ahead of one of Rochdale, Oldham, Walsall, Wimbledon, Gillingham, or even Southend!

Rochdale to win 2 home games (Oldham & Bradford) to get 51..... Plus they play us... A draw puts them on 52. Gd similar to ours.

Oldham all 5 games against bottom half teams. So, beat Doncaster at home and Northampton away, to get 52 points.

Walsall, 1 home game left, against Northampton, so win to get 51 points.

AFC to win their 2 homes games (Oldham & Bury) to get 54.

Gillingham have 3 tough games, and home to Blackpool. 1 point to get to 53.

Southend, home to Mk, so 3 points and 56 total.

We draw with Doncaster and Rochdale.

Final positions

15 Southend 56 pts
16 Wimbledon 54 pts
17 Gillingham 53 pts
18 Oxford 52 pts
19 Rochdale 52 pts
20 Oldham 52 pts
------
21 Walsall 51 pts
22 Northampton 46 pts
23 MK 44 pts
24 Bury

Very tight for the final relegation spot!
Click to expand...

I agree Bury and Northampton are gone. On the face of it you can add MK Dons to those two because they still have to play Scunthorpe and Shrewsbury, which they’re unlikely to get anything from. So even if they get two wins from their other two games, Southend and Bradford they’ll still only be on 48 points.
However beyond those three is where I’m not so confident. That last relegation spot is so hard to call.

Rochdale 45 points, are in great form. The only loss in the last 5 was to Wigan. They have to play:
Oldham and Bradford at home and I think they’ll win both of those (51 points). Their other two home games are against Plymouth and Charlton, which again I can see them picking up points too. So I would not be surprised if they finish on 52 - 54 points. Not including our fixture.

Oldham have 46 points, they have two tricky away games against the aforementioned Rochdale and AFC Wimbledon. I don’t think they’ll win either of them but maybe a point from AFC (47 points). However their last 3 games are very winnable: Southend, Doncaster and Northampton. I think they’ll pick up at least 4 points from the last 3 games so at least 51 points.

Walsall have a tricky away game at Scunthorpe however after that they have 2 very winnable games against Northampton and Bradford. They have 48 points so if they win those two they’ll be on 54 and god forbid they get anything from a safe Fleetwood on the final day of the season 54 - 55 points.

AFC Wimbledon on 49 points have Oldham at home and this game is massive for us. Tough one to call but I can see Oldham getting yet another draw (50 points). Then they play Wigan away. But their last 2 matches are against Bradford and Bury and I can see them winning both!
I think they’ll finish on 53-56 points.

Will Gillingham be dragged into it? On 52 points and tough home games against Rotherham and Plymouth. Blackpool at home and Bristol Rovers away ain’t easy games.
I think they’ll finish on 53 points.

I think we need another win and hope that Oldham or Rochdale struggle. Not safe by any means.
 
Shaun Rice said:
I agree Bury and Northampton are gone. On the face of it you can add MK Dons to those two because they still have to play Scunthorpe and Shrewsbury, which they’re unlikely to get anything from. So even if they get two wins from their other two games, Southend and Bradford they’ll still only be on 48 points.
However beyond those three is where I’m not so confident. That last relegation spot is so hard to call.

Rochdale 45 points, are in great form. The only loss in the last 5 was to Wigan. They have to play:
Oldham and Bradford at home and I think they’ll win both of those (51 points). Their other two home games are against Plymouth and Charlton, which again I can see them picking up points too. So I would not be surprised if they finish on 52 - 54 points. Not including our fixture.

Oldham have 46 points, they have two tricky away games against the aforementioned Rochdale and AFC Wimbledon. I don’t think they’ll win either of them but maybe a point from AFC (47 points). However their last 3 games are very winnable: Southend, Doncaster and Northampton. I think they’ll pick up at least 4 points from the last 3 games so at least 51 points.

Walsall have a tricky away game at Scunthorpe however after that they have 2 very winnable games against Northampton and Bradford. They have 48 points so if they win those two they’ll be on 54 and god forbid they get anything from a safe Fleetwood on the final day of the season 54 - 55 points.

AFC Wimbledon on 49 points have Oldham at home and this game is massive for us. Tough one to call but I can see Oldham getting yet another draw (50 points). Then they play Wigan away. But their last 2 matches are against Bradford and Bury and I can see them winning both!
I think they’ll finish on 53-56 points.

Will Gillingham be dragged into it? On 52 points and tough home games against Rotherham and Plymouth. Blackpool at home and Bristol Rovers away ain’t easy games.
I think they’ll finish on 53 points.

I think we need another win and hope that Oldham or Rochdale struggle. Not safe by any means.
Click to expand...
So on that basis, somebody could go down with 53 points which is unprecedented. Probably because there’s a completely P**s poor team in the division in Bury, which means free points for everyone except us..
 
There’ll be a few draws in there reducing the tally. We are still in the mix, despite our win yesterday. Nobody will give us a prayer on Tuesday, so we will have to play it very tight. A point away would be a real bonus. The worry is that our goal difference could really suffer
 
Shaun Rice said:
I agree Bury and Northampton are gone. On the face of it you can add MK Dons to those two because they still have to play Scunthorpe and Shrewsbury, which they’re unlikely to get anything from. So even if they get two wins from their other two games, Southend and Bradford they’ll still only be on 48 points.
However beyond those three is where I’m not so confident. That last relegation spot is so hard to call.

Rochdale 45 points, are in great form. The only loss in the last 5 was to Wigan. They have to play:
Oldham and Bradford at home and I think they’ll win both of those (51 points). Their other two home games are against Plymouth and Charlton, which again I can see them picking up points too. So I would not be surprised if they finish on 52 - 54 points. Not including our fixture.

Oldham have 46 points, they have two tricky away games against the aforementioned Rochdale and AFC Wimbledon. I don’t think they’ll win either of them but maybe a point from AFC (47 points). However their last 3 games are very winnable: Southend, Doncaster and Northampton. I think they’ll pick up at least 4 points from the last 3 games so at least 51 points.

Walsall have a tricky away game at Scunthorpe however after that they have 2 very winnable games against Northampton and Bradford. They have 48 points so if they win those two they’ll be on 54 and god forbid they get anything from a safe Fleetwood on the final day of the season 54 - 55 points.

AFC Wimbledon on 49 points have Oldham at home and this game is massive for us. Tough one to call but I can see Oldham getting yet another draw (50 points). Then they play Wigan away. But their last 2 matches are against Bradford and Bury and I can see them winning both!
I think they’ll finish on 53-56 points.

Will Gillingham be dragged into it? On 52 points and tough home games against Rotherham and Plymouth. Blackpool at home and Bristol Rovers away ain’t easy games.
I think they’ll finish on 53 points.

I think we need another win and hope that Oldham or Rochdale struggle. Not safe by any means.
Click to expand...
In the next 3 games Rochdale have Plymouth,Bradford,Oldham. But will be without top scorer Ian Henderson after straight red yesterday.

They are reliant on his goals. So i suspect they will suffer the next 3 games.
 
RATC said:
Shaun Rice said:
I agree Bury and Northampton are gone. On the face of it you can add MK Dons to those two because they still have to play Scunthorpe and Shrewsbury, which they’re unlikely to get anything from. So even if they get two wins from their other two games, Southend and Bradford they’ll still only be on 48 points.
However beyond those three is where I’m not so confident. That last relegation spot is so hard to call.

Rochdale 45 points, are in great form. The only loss in the last 5 was to Wigan. They have to play:
Oldham and Bradford at home and I think they’ll win both of those (51 points). Their other two home games are against Plymouth and Charlton, which again I can see them picking up points too. So I would not be surprised if they finish on 52 - 54 points. Not including our fixture.

Oldham have 46 points, they have two tricky away games against the aforementioned Rochdale and AFC Wimbledon. I don’t think they’ll win either of them but maybe a point from AFC (47 points). However their last 3 games are very winnable: Southend, Doncaster and Northampton. I think they’ll pick up at least 4 points from the last 3 games so at least 51 points.

Walsall have a tricky away game at Scunthorpe however after that they have 2 very winnable games against Northampton and Bradford. They have 48 points so if they win those two they’ll be on 54 and god forbid they get anything from a safe Fleetwood on the final day of the season 54 - 55 points.

AFC Wimbledon on 49 points have Oldham at home and this game is massive for us. Tough one to call but I can see Oldham getting yet another draw (50 points). Then they play Wigan away. But their last 2 matches are against Bradford and Bury and I can see them winning both!
I think they’ll finish on 53-56 points.

Will Gillingham be dragged into it? On 52 points and tough home games against Rotherham and Plymouth. Blackpool at home and Bristol Rovers away ain’t easy games.
I think they’ll finish on 53 points.

I think we need another win and hope that Oldham or Rochdale struggle. Not safe by any means.
Click to expand...
In the next 3 games Rochdale have Plymouth,Bradford,Oldham. But will be without top scorer Ian Henderson after straight red yesterday.

They are reliant on his goals. So i suspect they will suffer the next 3 games.
Click to expand...

Very helpful that he’s missing four games - including us.
 
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