League One survival?

[Mellowyellow]

Very interesting post from the Doncaster fans forum, from someone having looked at points needed for survival in this division historically;

In the 36 seasons since the 3 points per win, the fourth from bottom club in this Division has had 50 or more points on 15 occasions. So 50 points has given on average about a 58% chance of survival.

54 points has been relegated once, 53 on 2 occasions, 52 on 2 occasions and 51 on 3 occasions.

So 52 points has given about an 86% chance of survival and 53 about 92% and 54 about 97%

I won't sleep easy until we have 54, but then I'm a pessimist about these sorts of things.

Edit: The lowest number of points for a 5th from bottom place was 45 in 1999-00.

So 51 points would give an 83% chance of survival.

 

[carefreeoufc]

What was the data you used to make that prediction?

I should think based on our performances over the last few months, the teams around us and historical relegation figures etc.

What data do you require down there under the sand?

 

[Mellowyellow]

I should think based on our performances over the last few months, the teams around us and historical relegation figures etc.

What data do you require down there under the sand?

Is that aimed at me, even though I don't understand the meaning behind it?? But then again this is an Oxford forum, so vailed personal digs are the idiotic norm.

I thought it was quite interesting. As far as our survival, I'm not saying those figures relate to us. For me I think we will be safe with 52 points, but who knows.

As for under the sand, quite bizzare. An ostrich me???? If only you knew the history behind such references. We used to have our resident RTO on this and previous websites.

 

[Davox]

For me the equation is simple; it’ll all be on the Rochdale home game. If they beat us pretty certain we’ll go down as I can only see a max of 1 point from our away games. If we draw or win the Rochdale game we stay up

 

[Deleted member 222]

I can actually see us picking up a surprise point on Tuesday night.

 

[carefreeoufc]

Is that aimed at me, even though I don't understand the meaning behind it?? But then again this is an Oxford forum, so vailed personal digs are the idiotic norm.

I thought it was quite interesting. As far as our survival, I'm not saying those figures relate to us. For me I think we will be safe with 52 points, but who knows.

As for under the sand, quite bizzare. An ostrich me???? If only you knew the history behind such references. We used to have our resident RTO on this and previous websites.

No it wasn’t, it was a reply to the post i replied to.

 

[Scotchegg]

Frankly, we deserve to go down given the sheer arrogance and hubris (of the previous chairman and manager).

I can never understand how a true fan can ever think that we deserve to be relegated for anything other than our results.

You are almost looking forward to us losing just so you can say you told us so.

You sound like the sad lonely guy who desperately wants his mate to split with his girlfriend so they can be sad and lonely together!!

 

[Manorman]

Despite the defensive improvement in the past couple of games we failed to score against 2 pretty mediocre teams. Fortunately Saturday saw us score twice but neither came from our toothless strikers. I remain worried that this may still cost us in the final 4 matches. Goalless draws against Rochdale and Doncaster won’t be enough and you have to feel sorry for KR who inherited this mess.

 

[Oldham]

Very interesting post from the Doncaster fans forum, from someone having looked at points needed for survival in this division historically;

In the 36 seasons since the 3 points per win, the fourth from bottom club in this Division has had 50 or more points on 15 occasions. So 50 points has given on average about a 58% chance of survival.

54 points has been relegated once, 53 on 2 occasions, 52 on 2 occasions and 51 on 3 occasions.

So 52 points has given about an 86% chance of survival and 53 about 92% and 54 about 97%

I won't sleep easy until we have 54, but then I'm a pessimist about these sorts of things.

Edit: The lowest number of points for a 5th from bottom place was 45 in 1999-00.

So 51 points would give an 83% chance of survival.

Blimey were you bored when you looked that up? Lol fair play to you though, interesting read ?

 

[SiHath]

Which sums up rather neatly our problem. Amongst the candidates for 21st and 22nd position we have comfortably the worst form.
Whilst KR has shored things up, mostly by packing the central spaces and cutting down on experimentation with young loanees, that has been at the expense of goal threat.
Just as good teams 'find a way to win even when playing badly' bad teams will surely find a way to lose even when playing (comparatively) well.
Southend is now critical, because if we do not win we head to Wigan with relegation looming. Hopefully they will already be on their sunbeds and do us a favour. We need a slice of luck really badly right now.

Funny how one result can make all the difference to the form tables at this time of the season. There are now 2 other teams amongst the candidates for 21st and 22nd place with comfortably worse form than us.

 

[LondonRoader]

That about sums it up. I predicted back at Christmas that on then available data it would be a very high safety target (I was shot down by Dave and the Moonshiners, needless to say, who were wibbling on about 46 points or something like that). It's looking like 52 with good GD or 53 if our GD suffers a bit (and depending on whom we are tied with).

That's the bad news. The good news is that it is almost certainly just one win required from four games, and that is eminently achievable on our current, improved form since Dickie and Brannegan integrated into the team, giving us some much-needed youth and honesty in amongst the hapless crew that Pep put together. We've just had home games against two teams who had already set off on their summer holidays, but now it gets a little harder (maybe excepting Doncaster) as our oppo will be scrapping as hard as us. But, none the less, I would be as optimistic as I have been for some time because there are some shoots of recovery in our general play and in our defence. I predict that we will finish with 54 points and escape by a point or two in about 19th place, having gone out of both Cup competitions at the first hurdle to bad League 2 outfits. A horrible, horrible season borne out of greed, crassly bad judgement, medium-term strategic mistakes, the whole lot. Frankly, we deserve to go down given the sheer arrogance and hubris (of the previous chairman and manager)..... But....... but...... if we CAN keep our head above water, and give Tiger and KR some sort of a platform to build from, then we can all move on and look forward come mid May....

Only you could turn a 3 point win into a negative and another pop at the club and fans.
But I'm quite suprised to see you after a win, as you normally go into hiding..

 

[Peterdev]

To be honest we are nowhere near safe yet and are dependent on other teams slipping up. I’d like to forecast a result tomorrow for us, but that looks very unlikely given Wigan know they can easily beat us and are going for the championship.
Stranger things have happened, but if I was offered a draw I’d grab it.
I’m sure it’ll go down to the wire but as Charlie says, and I agree, we need 53 to be safe, but could need 54 if we get a pasting at Blackburn and possibly Wigan

 

[SiHath]

To be honest we are nowhere near safe yet and are dependent on other teams slipping up. I’d like to forecast a result tomorrow for us, but that looks very unlikely given Wigan know they can easily beat us and are going for the championship.
Stranger things have happened, but if I was offered a draw I’d grab it.
I’m sure it’ll go down to the wire but as Charlie says, and I agree, we need 53 to be safe, but could need 54 if we get a pasting at Blackburn and possibly Wigan

We're certainly not safe yet, but I don't think anyone is saying that, are they?

All the other teams are dependent on other teams slipping up to survive this season as well though, not just us. Rochdale is a massive game, win that (and only that) game, and I think that will be (just about) enough.

A season that will live long in the memory for all the wrong reasons.

 

[radicalox]

I should think based on our performances over the last few months, the teams around us and historical relegation figures etc.

What data do you require down there under the sand?

Not going to get pulled into the childish jibes.

Our individual performance isn't really relevant to predicting the points required for survival. We were 10th at Christmas, so performance of who exactly "around" us. There was nothing unusual about the table at Christmas to suggest that the points for survival would deviate from the statistical norm.

 

[BarrySpang]

Was very surprised to see that Rochdale have only won 1 of their last 11 home league games. With Henderson out as well, maybe we shouldn’t be so worried.

 

[nige01ox]

Was very surprised to see that Rochdale have only won 1 of their last 11 home league games. With Henderson out as well, maybe we shouldn’t be so worried.

It's a shame then that we've got them at home. Their away form is very good - of the last 8 they've W5 D1 L2, with Scunthorpe, Rovers, and Wigan the only places they've dropped points at.

 

[Concretebob]

I can never understand how a true fan can ever think that we deserve to be relegated for anything other than our results.

You are almost looking forward to us losing just so you can say you told us so.

You sound like the sad lonely guy who desperately wants his mate to split with his girlfriend so they can be sad and lonely together!!

Can you like a post again and again and again?

 

[Yellow Mustard]

Dawn I'm fed up!

 

[radicalox]

Doncaster still to play us, Oldham and Wimbledon. They could well be the team that determines who takes that 4th relegation spot.

 

[Itsthehopethatkillsyou]

Whilst reading this speculative thread (and idly wondering if I should purchase an ice cream) I noticed this vehicle pull up at the lights....serves as a reminder that maybe our strike force isn't all that bad after all.
Sorry, back to the speculation: we will stay up...why? Because the sun is shining, because I have a cornetto and because I said so ??