General MK at home followed by Covid-19

[carefreeoufc]

Based on what, Baz?

If 60% get the virus, like Boris wants, and there's the same death rate here as currently in Italy, then that's about 2.75 million dead in the UK.

Well I guess that’s one way to solve the housing crisis! Should save a fair bit of money for HMG.

*tongue well in cheek* before anyone thinks I’m suggesting that Boris and Cummings would even dream of thinking anything like that.

 

[carefreeoufc]

Ok then, so we’ll delay these tactics, allow the country to carry on going to pubs, clubs, cinemas, restaurants, gyms, and all manner of public gatherings, freely spreading the infection, and then once it’s got completely out of hand, then take action?!?

Yeah that makes sense!

But our Government scientists and behavioural experts have said that this is what we should do! It’s all the rest of the worlds scientists that are wrong. Not ours! ?

 

[maidenheadox]

On a more positive note, at least the pitch will have a chance to recover.

 

[behindthegoal]

On a more positive note, at least the pitch will have a chance to recover.

Oh no, has it got the virus as well???

 

[bazzer9461]

Based on what, Baz?

If 60% get the virus, like Boris wants, and there's the same death rate here as currently in Italy, then that's about 2.75 million dead in the UK.

Well let’s look at the figures, China with a huge population compared to ours have 1000 dead from this virus but now things seem to be under control in China and the death of those with the coronavirus bid on the decline, the. Mortality rate in Italy is frightening but now they have brought in a team of specialists from China to help curb this disease.
Your figure of 2.75 million dead I would say is wrong and way of the mark.

 

[IsleofWightYellow]

Based on what, Baz?

If 60% get the virus, like Boris wants, and there's the same death rate here as currently in Italy, then that's about 2.75 million dead in the UK.

It’s likely that many, many more people have the virus in Italy than the official figures, so the death rate as a % isn’t accurate at all. Also Italy has an older population than us so more at risk cases.

 

[m]

Well let’s look at the figures, China with a huge population compared to ours have 1000 dead from this virus but now things seem to be under control in China and the death of those with the coronavirus bid on the decline, the. Mortality rate in Italy is frightening but now they have brought in a team of specialists from China to help curb this disease.
Your figure of 2.75 million dead I would say is wrong and way of the mark.

"You would say", so no numbers then, and no argument beyond that?

China basically declared martial war, we won't do that! Maybe a touch too early to say things are under control in China anyway?

For the record, I don't think it will be millions; but for you to glibly dismiss the possibility of it being hundreds of thousands - without any evidence that I can see - is pure 'head in the sand' stuff.

 

[IsleofWightYellow]

Not strictly true. That link I posted shows a few ways of estimating the death rate relative to the number of people showing symptoms, and taking account the average time from symptoms to death of 17 days (https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca). It has been running long enough to back calculate how many people had it when a given person died. In countries where they have locked down early (China outside Hubei, Japan, Singapore, HK), the death rate is <1%. In the countries which have been slow to lock down (e.g. Italy, Iran) it is 4-5%. The difference is about preparation and the ability of the system to not be overwhelmed.

Actually, strictly speaking, it is true.

It’s been proven (due to cruise ship situations where people are tested even if they don’t have symptoms) that it is possible to have Coronavirus and not have any symptoms at all. There are also many more who only have mild-moderate symptoms.

Therefore, we can safely assume that, given how limited testing has had to be, there are huge numbers of people who have got this disease but not been added to any kind of figures - and maybe not even known themselves.

The only way to properly figure out a death rate for a disease is to see how many people went on to die from contacting it.

So any type of death rate prediction cannot take these figures into account with any kind of accuracy. So saying oh 5% died in XXX and therefore 5% will die here is just wild guessing - maybe hundreds of thousands more in these countries had it and were asymptomatic or only had a mild cold and therefore the death rate is more like 0.1%. So even if almost everyone in the county got it ‘only’ 60,000 would die - terrible of course but not in the millions like some of the more outlandish predictions I’ve seen!

 

[m]

It’s likely that many, many more people have the virus in Italy than the official figures, so the death rate as a % isn’t accurate at all. Also Italy has an older population than us so more at risk cases.

Absolutely. The death rate will almost certainly drop. I don't imagine the final toll will be in the millions. Thousands? Definitely. Tens of thousands? Who knows?

 

[bazzer9461]

"You would say", so no numbers then, and no argument beyond that?

China basically declared martial war, we won't do that! Maybe a touch too early to say things are under control in China anyway?

For the record, I don't think it will be millions; but for you to glibly dismiss the possibility of it being hundreds of thousands - without any evidence that I can see - is pure 'head in the sand' stuff.

I’m going on the figures from China and the fact they seem to be getting it under control, and they haven’t had hundreds of thousands of deaths, so I would say with our school entrance at and the fact that Chinese scientists and Drs have now gone to Italy to help them as their infection rate is very high.
So I would presume that the Chinese are in cahoots with the rest of the worlds scientists who are dealing with this coronavirus to expedite their work into finding a cure into eradicating this disease, but at the moment what has been achieved is the control of spreading.
The government going to the delay phase is them trying to manage this disease so as not to put a burden on the NHS

 

[Big Ronaldo]

Interesting that some of the most varied opinion on coronavirus is found on the ‘MK at home’ thread.

 

[Sarge]

Interesting that some of the most varied opinion on coronavirus is found on the ‘MK at home’ thread.

franchised in? ?

 

[Robie]

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

www.arcgis.com

 

[SteMerritt]

Interesting that some of the most varied opinion on coronavirus is found on the ‘MK at home’ thread.

Just wait until the official matchday thread starts, that's when the big hitters will be in with their contributions...

 

[m]

I’m going on the figures from China and the fact they seem to be getting it under control, and they haven’t had hundreds of thousands of deaths...

Our approach to handling it could not possibly be more different to China's, can you not see that?

 

[chuckbert]

Actually, strictly speaking, it is true.

It’s been proven (due to cruise ship situations where people are tested even if they don’t have symptoms) that it is possible to have Coronavirus and not have any symptoms at all. There are also many more who only have mild-moderate symptoms.

Therefore, we can safely assume that, given how limited testing has had to be, there are huge numbers of people who have got this disease but not been added to any kind of figures - and maybe not even known themselves.

The only way to properly figure out a death rate for a disease is to see how many people went on to die from contacting it.

So any type of death rate prediction cannot take these figures into account with any kind of accuracy. So saying oh 5% died in XXX and therefore 5% will die here is just wild guessing - maybe hundreds of thousands more in these countries had it and were asymptomatic or only had a mild cold and therefore the death rate is more like 0.1%. So even if almost everyone in the county got it ‘only’ 60,000 would die - terrible of course but not in the millions like some of the more outlandish predictions I’ve seen!

So you are arguing that it is impossible to know the death rate of any disease for which latent infection is possible. No death rate for tb. No death rate for the common cold. No death rate for staph or strep. No death rate for basal cell carcinoma. It’s a meaningless argument. It is possible (and has been done) to calculate a death rate relative to people showing notifiable symptoms. And it is pretty consistent.

 

[IsleofWightYellow]

So you are arguing that it is impossible to know the death rate of any disease for which latent infection is possible. No death rate for tb. No death rate for the common cold. No death rate for staph or strep. No death rate for basal cell carcinoma. It’s a meaningless argument. It is possible (and has been done) to calculate a death rate relative to people showing notifiable symptoms. And it is pretty consistent.

It’s not meaningless at all.

It’s a response to the argument: ‘The death rate is X in other countries, therefore if 60% of people in the UK get it, X will die!’

Yes you can never know the death rate of any disease with 100% accuracy. But in this very specific case of Covid-19 we KNOW that the death rate is likely to be massively over exaggerated:

1. Testing has only been done in a very few cases, relatively speaking. Plenty have spoken about about having symptoms, and yet not being tested. Tests have been in short supply all over the world.

2. In some cases on cruise ships, 50% of those testing positive were asymptomatic. While that is technically possible in other recent diseases such as Ebola, it is much less likely.

You mentioned these estimates of people ‘showing notifiable symptoms’ - without testing, how do we know those were Coronavirus and not something else, given how many symptoms it shares with various other illnesses (again, unlike an Ebola). Also, how many people in China for example just kept quiet with mild symptoms? Or in Italy just self isolated and didn’t notify anyone? Plus how accurate are China’s and Iran’s figures?

Finally, given we know it will have a vastly different death rate if it sweeps round a nursing home district rather than a load of football clubs, how does a death rate mean anything anyway? Or given how it may well affect Caucasians differently to Asians?

The fact is there are simply too many unknowns and variables from country to country to predict it with any kind of accuracy. Different countries may have lied or changed the figures, have different health systems and quality of healthcare, have different ages of population and population health. It won’t ever translate to X% of deaths in this country.

 

[chuckbert]

It’s not meaningless at all.

It’s a response to the argument: ‘The death rate is X in other countries, therefore if 60% of people in the UK get it, X will die!’

Yes you can never know the death rate of any disease with 100% accuracy. But in this very specific case of Covid-19 we KNOW that the death rate is likely to be massively over exaggerated:

1. Testing has only been done in a very few cases, relatively speaking. Plenty have spoken about about having symptoms, and yet not being tested. Tests have been in short supply all over the world.

2. In some cases on cruise ships, 50% of those testing positive were asymptomatic. While that is technically possible in other recent diseases such as Ebola, it is much less likely.

You mentioned these estimates of people ‘showing notifiable symptoms’ - without testing, how do we know those were Coronavirus and not something else, given how many symptoms it shares with various other illnesses (again, unlike an Ebola). Also, how many people in China for example just kept quiet with mild symptoms? Or in Italy just self isolated and didn’t notify anyone? Plus how accurate are China’s and Iran’s figures?

Finally, given we know it will have a vastly different death rate if it sweeps round a nursing home district rather than a load of football clubs, how does a death rate mean anything anyway? Or given how it may well affect Caucasians differently to Asians?

The fact is there are simply too many unknowns and variables from country to country to predict it with any kind of accuracy. Different countries may have lied or changed the figures, have different health systems and quality of healthcare, have different ages of population and population health. It won’t ever translate to X% of deaths in this country.

At the risk of being boring, have read of the link I posted a couple of days ago: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

 

[bazzer9461]

Our approach to handling it could not possibly be more different to China's, can you not see that?

We are different yes the government are hoping to spread the virus So that our NHS isn’t overcrowded which would cause untold problems and see a severe bed crisis within the NHS. What the government should do is now find an area let’s say a former military barracks that could if the military and the NHS scientists got together and make a suitable facility that could house coronavirus victims and help them to hopefully recover. That would be to do up the present facility and make it as sterile as possible similar to what the Chinese did albeit a new hospital built with in 10 days.

 

[Gary Baldi]

What will Paul do with his life now he can't call Rad Ox on a Saturday for his take on OUFC? I feel sorry for whatever shop or Garden Centre that ends up with is patronage over the next few weeks