General MK at home followed by Covid-19

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AbbeyOx said:
he’ll be ringing in to customer services after his visit
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Rad Ox running a sports show ( hosted by Jerome)... including an invitation for listeners to call the programme..... I wonder if....? ?
 
chuckbert said:
At the risk of being boring, have read of the link I posted a couple of days ago: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
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I have read that, in detail. At no point, when talking about the potential death rate, does it debunk anything that I have said.

Try this: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www....3/5/21165973/coronavirus-death-rate-explained

A quote from there:

“Some of the countries that have done more widespread testing appear to have relatively fewer deaths in the case mix. In South Korea, for example, where thousands of people are tested every day, they’ve picked up more than 7,500 people with the virus. Among those, 54 have died. If we use the WHO’s method of calculating the CFR — and don’t take into account the potential problem of underestimating the number of mild cases out there — a crude case fatality estimate hovers under 1 percent.”

Eg, in countries where relatively few are tested, yet all deaths from Corona are recorded, of course you get a high death rate. But as soon as you start testing everyone, the death rate plummets to under 1%.

Nothing in the article you linked disputes or debunks that.
 
Sarge said:
Rad Ox running a sports show ( hosted by Jerome)... including an invitation for listeners to call the programme..... I wonder if....? ?
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...and theres a few already lined up to talk to Jerome - David Pritchard (OM) & Steve Kinnenburgh ( ex rangers / oufc ) currently on the programme .... think theyre both at 'City's game?
 
HampshireYellow said:
I have read that, in detail. At no point, when talking about the potential death rate, does it debunk anything that I have said.

Try this: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www....3/5/21165973/coronavirus-death-rate-explained

A quote from there:

“Some of the countries that have done more widespread testing appear to have relatively fewer deaths in the case mix. In South Korea, for example, where thousands of people are tested every day, they’ve picked up more than 7,500 people with the virus. Among those, 54 have died. If we use the WHO’s method of calculating the CFR — and don’t take into account the potential problem of underestimating the number of mild cases out there — a crude case fatality estimate hovers under 1 percent.”

Eg, in countries where relatively few are tested, yet all deaths from Corona are recorded, of course you get a high death rate. But as soon as you start testing everyone, the death rate plummets to under 1%.

Nothing in the article you linked disputes or debunks that.
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The section in the article on Fatality Rates does address this, and supports a different conclusion to yours. It addresses the matter of In areas where the health system is overwhelmed, the deaths/total cases (of people with symptoms) figure is 4%. In areas where it isn’t, the rate has been 1%. That is a substantial difference, and If a government wants to know how to act, this is the critical information and it does not rely on unknowable recorded knowledge of latent, sub clinical cases. If you want to know what your chances are of dying if you become infected (regardless of symptoms) then nothing, including any of this epidemiological data will help, but that’s not what any of this is about.
 
What a boring day. Would be just about to get in my car and moan about the rubbish traffic management delaying me getting home.
 
chuckbert said:
The section in the article on Fatality Rates does address this, and supports a different conclusion to yours. It addresses the matter of In areas where the health system is overwhelmed, the deaths/total cases (of people with symptoms) figure is 4%. In areas where it isn’t, the rate has been 1%. That is a substantial difference, and If a government wants to know how to act, this is the critical information and it does not rely on unknowable recorded knowledge of latent, sub clinical cases. If you want to know what your chances are of dying if you become infected (regardless of symptoms) then nothing, including any of this epidemiological data will help, but that’s not what any of this is about.
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I agree with a lot of what the article is saying, and I also agree that the death rate itself isn’t the be all and end all, it depends on how your health service holds up, but I stand by the fact that there is no way to predict the CV death rate, and saying it will be 3.4% or 4% here, while giving people a scare, isn’t really accurate (in my opinion)
 
m said:
Our approach to handling it could not possibly be more different to China's, can you not see that?
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Thank f**k for that! Thrown in the back of a pick up truck to then disappear because one had a bit of a cough is extreme. They (the Chinese) are hardly renowned for their human rights, this will be a golden opportunity for several dissidents and victims of local politics to be carted off for ever.

The political bleating on here about our present government is pathetic. What do you want? Everything closed down? Everyone confined? It's now gone so far that people are panic buying anything and losing all humanity and the ability to care about anyone but themselves.
Bunch of f*****g idiots buying up toilet rolls, pasta, rice anything and everything. All this regardless of any assurance that the supply lines are ok. Everyday the supermarkets replenish and every day some moron walks into clear the shelves again. All the time this goes on the less able, the elderly and the infirm are pushed aside so that the strongest can hoard. "I'm alright, Jack"

It just shows how most of society is close to reverting to the stone age.
 
How long will it be until supply chains do suffer though? There’s only so many people who can self isolate and not go to work in distribution centres, packing centres, logistics hubs etc.

Not to mention as more countries close shop to look after their own will they export/be able to export?

I know of a couple of very large Main Contractors who are already looking at pausing some very large projects in London not because of staff shortages but shortages of materials. In fact there was an article in construction news earlier this week.

I don’t know the answer just asking a question particularly with the panic buying going on and the prolonged period the CMO and Boris referred to on Friday with this dragging on for months (so as not to inundate the NHS).

Sure there’s someone on here working/involved in supermarket distribution or similar (no I don’t mean the guy who brings the trolleys out of the River Ock back to Tesco)
 
I wonder if in six months we will look back on all this and see it was another bird flu / swine flu / SARS type false alarm, which for some reason they chose to completely freak out about when it wasn’t even as harmful as common influenza. And if so, I wonder what the reason for them doing so was. Why this time? Plenty of people are being confirmed as having it who are stunned as they either feel nothing at all or have symptoms that aren’t even as bad as a moderate winter cold. The government themselves reckon it’s incredibly likely that tens if not hundreds of thousands of people already have it, in which case its impact is minimal in the extreme.

I’m certainly not being a climate change denier, so to speak - we’ll have to wait and see what this all ends up being. But I’m not automatically convinced that this is the 21st Century black death it’s being painted out as. Let’s wait and see with our own eyes what happens in the next few weeks in particular. Maybe it will be absolute carnage. Maybe it won’t be.
 
I work in retail marketing. There is nothing wrong with the manufacturing and supply. Any issue is with the logistics ie packaging and distribution. Be assured manufacturers are 24/7 at the moment. There’s a warehouse just outside our county with 73 million toilet rolls. They just need to get the supply chains to deliver it to stores. This panic is self creation.... people need to remain calm
 
brassmonkey said:
BBC News - Coronavirus: Scientists say UK virus strategy is 'risking lives'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402 This sums up the inept response from our government.
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No it doesn't. It shows up how different "scientists" have different opinions. Those advising the government are, by intimation, the better at doing their job.
You and I, however, are not in a position to judge. This is all new, no government has enough information or experience to make 100% correct decisions.
 
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