In responding to some naysayers in the Burton thread, I figured out our form since our disastrous start to the season, and I thought it was interesting. Since the Southend game on 6 October, which was, incidentally, our last match before Eastwood returned between the sticks, and marks to many the end of our abysmal start-of-season form, we have played 18 matches and accumulated 26 points. Our average Points Per Game (PPG) since then has therefore been 1.44. Over a 46 game season, that would give us 66 points, which, last year, would have put us on par with Pompey who finished 8th. So our form since early October, which is more or less 4 months ago, has been that of a team pushing for the playoffs. I know that the league is a marathon not a sprint etc., and every game counts so you can't ignore those first 12 games, BUT 4 months is a fairly hefty, to my eyes, period of time to suggest we are not relegation fodder.
I thought it would be an interesting exercise to see what, in the equivalent time, the form of our nearest relegation rivals has been like:
15. Accrington: 16 played / 16 points accumulated / 1 PPG / Extrapolated over the course of a season, where they would have finished last year: 22nd
16. Plymouth: 19 / 29 / 1.52 / 7th
17. Walsall: 18 / 13 / 0.72 / 24th
18. Rochdale: 19 / 21 / 1.1 / 21st
19. Gillingham: 19 / 20 / 1.1 / 21st
20. Rovers: 18 / 22 / 1.2 / 18th
21. (Us): 18 / 26 / 1.44 / 8th
22. Bradford: 19 / 22 / 1.16 / 18th
23. Shrewsbury: 18 / 19 / 1.05 / 22nd
24. Wimbledon: 18 / 12 / 0.67 / 24th
While there's no disguising the fact that we are entering February in the relegation places, what this shows to me is that all of the teams around us are showing, and have shown over the last 4 months, the form of genuine relegation contenders. Meanwhile, we have shown the sort of upper mid-table form that I, and I think may others, expected of us at the beginning of the year. We started terribly, and have been playing catchup since October, but while results like today are frustrating, I think you would have to be pretty unreasonably pessimistic to suggest that we are worse than the teams around us, and therefore nailed on for relegation.
I thought it would be an interesting exercise to see what, in the equivalent time, the form of our nearest relegation rivals has been like:
15. Accrington: 16 played / 16 points accumulated / 1 PPG / Extrapolated over the course of a season, where they would have finished last year: 22nd
16. Plymouth: 19 / 29 / 1.52 / 7th
17. Walsall: 18 / 13 / 0.72 / 24th
18. Rochdale: 19 / 21 / 1.1 / 21st
19. Gillingham: 19 / 20 / 1.1 / 21st
20. Rovers: 18 / 22 / 1.2 / 18th
21. (Us): 18 / 26 / 1.44 / 8th
22. Bradford: 19 / 22 / 1.16 / 18th
23. Shrewsbury: 18 / 19 / 1.05 / 22nd
24. Wimbledon: 18 / 12 / 0.67 / 24th
While there's no disguising the fact that we are entering February in the relegation places, what this shows to me is that all of the teams around us are showing, and have shown over the last 4 months, the form of genuine relegation contenders. Meanwhile, we have shown the sort of upper mid-table form that I, and I think may others, expected of us at the beginning of the year. We started terribly, and have been playing catchup since October, but while results like today are frustrating, I think you would have to be pretty unreasonably pessimistic to suggest that we are worse than the teams around us, and therefore nailed on for relegation.
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