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ttg17

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In responding to some naysayers in the Burton thread, I figured out our form since our disastrous start to the season, and I thought it was interesting. Since the Southend game on 6 October, which was, incidentally, our last match before Eastwood returned between the sticks, and marks to many the end of our abysmal start-of-season form, we have played 18 matches and accumulated 26 points. Our average Points Per Game (PPG) since then has therefore been 1.44. Over a 46 game season, that would give us 66 points, which, last year, would have put us on par with Pompey who finished 8th. So our form since early October, which is more or less 4 months ago, has been that of a team pushing for the playoffs. I know that the league is a marathon not a sprint etc., and every game counts so you can't ignore those first 12 games, BUT 4 months is a fairly hefty, to my eyes, period of time to suggest we are not relegation fodder.

I thought it would be an interesting exercise to see what, in the equivalent time, the form of our nearest relegation rivals has been like:

15. Accrington: 16 played / 16 points accumulated / 1 PPG / Extrapolated over the course of a season, where they would have finished last year: 22nd
16. Plymouth: 19 / 29 / 1.52 / 7th
17. Walsall: 18 / 13 / 0.72 / 24th
18. Rochdale: 19 / 21 / 1.1 / 21st
19. Gillingham: 19 / 20 / 1.1 / 21st
20. Rovers: 18 / 22 / 1.2 / 18th
21. (Us): 18 / 26 / 1.44 / 8th
22. Bradford: 19 / 22 / 1.16 / 18th
23. Shrewsbury: 18 / 19 / 1.05 / 22nd
24. Wimbledon: 18 / 12 / 0.67 / 24th

While there's no disguising the fact that we are entering February in the relegation places, what this shows to me is that all of the teams around us are showing, and have shown over the last 4 months, the form of genuine relegation contenders. Meanwhile, we have shown the sort of upper mid-table form that I, and I think may others, expected of us at the beginning of the year. We started terribly, and have been playing catchup since October, but while results like today are frustrating, I think you would have to be pretty unreasonably pessimistic to suggest that we are worse than the teams around us, and therefore nailed on for relegation.
 
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yellowbow

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In responding to some naysayers in the Burton thread, I figured out our form since our disastrous start to the season, and I thought it was interesting. Since the Southend game on 6 October, which was, incidentally, our last match before Eastwood returned between the sticks, and marks to many the end of our abysmal start-of-season form, we have played 18 matches and accumulated 26 points. Our average Points Per Game (PPG) since then has therefore been 1.44. Over a 46 game season, that would give us 66 points, which, last year, would have put us on par with Pompey who finished 8th. So our form since early October, which is more or less 4 months ago, has been that of a team pushing for the playoffs. I know that the league is a marathon not a sprint etc., and every game counts so you can't ignore those first 12 games, BUT 4 months is a fairly hefty, to my eyes, period of time to suggest we are not relegation fodder.

I thought it would be an interesting exercise to see what, in the equivalent time, the form of our nearest relegation rivals has been like:

15. Accrington: 16 played / 16 points accumulated / 1 PPG / Extrapolated over the course of a season, where they would have finished last year: 22nd
16. Plymouth: 19 / 29 / 1.52 / 7th
17. Walsall: 18 / 13 / 0.72 / 24th
18. Rochdale: 19 / 21 / 1.1 / 21st
19. Gillingham: 19 / 20 / 1.1 / 21st
20. Rovers: 18 / 22 / 1.2 / 18th
21. (Us): 18 / 26 / 1.66 / 8th
22. Bradford: 19 / 22 / 1.16 / 18th
23. Shrewsbury: 18 / 19 / 1.05 / 22nd
24. Wimbledon: 18 / 12 / 0.67 / 24th

While there's no disguising the fact that we are entering February in the relegation places, what this shows to me is that all of the teams around us are showing, and have shown over the last 4 months, the form of genuine relegation contenders. Meanwhile, we have shown the sort of upper mid-table form that I, and I think may others, expected of us at the beginning of the year. We started terribly, and have been playing catchup since October, but while results like today are frustrating, I think you would have to be pretty unreasonably pessimistic to suggest that we are worse than the teams around us, and therefore nailed on for relegation.
Encouraging, and hopefully shows we’ll have enough to see us safe. Another factor though, is the business done by all the clubs in the transfer window. Squad reshaping, once the new players are bedded in at their respective clubs, will also have some influence. Of course some teams will possibly have lost influential players as well.
 

Foley

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5 points after 11 games so people hopefully get that it has clearly been a big recovery since then.
Sunderland is our last really tough home game on paper (Luton away is like the Blackburn away last season)
If we can get a draw v Sunderland then we have to win a few games against some if the mire average League 1 teams.
 

beyondthefourth

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Really good job with this @ttg17

Puts things into a clearer perspective really. And much of that form without a "squad", per se.

Though it shouldn't be a given that we necessarily maintain that form (Portsmouth looked unbeatable only a month ago), it does show just how much we missed the presence of Eastwood at the back, and how valuable it was to push Mous into holding midfield.
 

ttg17

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Really good job with this @ttg17

Puts things into a clearer perspective really. And much of that form without a "squad", per se.

Though it shouldn't be a given that we necessarily maintain that form (Portsmouth looked unbeatable only a month ago), it does show just how much we missed the presence of Eastwood at the back, and how valuable it was to push Mous into holding midfield.
Exactly. I also think it shows that KR deserves a lot more credit than he’s being given. It took him a while to figure out his best team, but since he has, we’ve really picked up.

I would maybe even go a step further and say that, if Sinclair can hit the ground running and we can maintain this form through to the end of the year, this season would look suspiciously similar to MApp’s first season in charge. Slow start, strong finish, and a loanee striker from a premier league side in January who becomes a revelation. Some big ‘ifs’, but certainly reasons for optimism.
 

beyondthefourth

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Exactly. I also think it shows that KR deserves a lot more credit than he’s being given. It took him a while to figure out his best team, but since he has, we’ve really picked up.

I would maybe even go a step further and say that, if Sinclair can hit the ground running and we can maintain this form through to the end of the year, this season would look suspiciously similar to MApp’s first season in charge. Slow start, strong finish, and a loanee striker from a premier league side in January who becomes a revelation. Some big ‘ifs’, but certainly reasons for optimism.
Add to that an actual youth setup and it's looking fairly positive.

However, even if we end up mid-table, I think every fan will be asking serious questions about our recruitment policy in the next window. Seems to be about the only thing a majority can agree upon.
 

makv

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Nice to read something encouraging on here for a change! Great post.
 

Oufc28

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5 points after 11 games so people hopefully get that it has clearly been a big recovery since then.
Sunderland is our last really tough home game on paper (Luton away is like the Blackburn away last season)
If we can get a draw v Sunderland then we have to win a few games against some if the mire average League 1 teams.
I'd add posh into the hard game category too, however, from then on in I would expect us to win most of the remainder of home games.
 

Paul B

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I like the positve original post. However not trying to diminish it but it's easy to select data to support a particular point of view. Over the last 8 league games we've picked up 7 points. That's relegation form.
And I wouldn't say we've got many, if any, easy games left. We've got to play a lot of teams down in the mire with us and they will presumably be fighting for their lives.
 

werthersoriginal

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9 Dec 2017
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In responding to some naysayers in the Burton thread, I figured out our form since our disastrous start to the season, and I thought it was interesting. Since the Southend game on 6 October, which was, incidentally, our last match before Eastwood returned between the sticks, and marks to many the end of our abysmal start-of-season form, we have played 18 matches and accumulated 26 points. Our average Points Per Game (PPG) since then has therefore been 1.44. Over a 46 game season, that would give us 66 points, which, last year, would have put us on par with Pompey who finished 8th. So our form since early October, which is more or less 4 months ago, has been that of a team pushing for the playoffs. I know that the league is a marathon not a sprint etc., and every game counts so you can't ignore those first 12 games, BUT 4 months is a fairly hefty, to my eyes, period of time to suggest we are not relegation fodder.

I thought it would be an interesting exercise to see what, in the equivalent time, the form of our nearest relegation rivals has been like:

15. Accrington: 16 played / 16 points accumulated / 1 PPG / Extrapolated over the course of a season, where they would have finished last year: 22nd
16. Plymouth: 19 / 29 / 1.52 / 7th
17. Walsall: 18 / 13 / 0.72 / 24th
18. Rochdale: 19 / 21 / 1.1 / 21st
19. Gillingham: 19 / 20 / 1.1 / 21st
20. Rovers: 18 / 22 / 1.2 / 18th
21. (Us): 18 / 26 / 1.44 / 8th
22. Bradford: 19 / 22 / 1.16 / 18th
23. Shrewsbury: 18 / 19 / 1.05 / 22nd
24. Wimbledon: 18 / 12 / 0.67 / 24th

While there's no disguising the fact that we are entering February in the relegation places, what this shows to me is that all of the teams around us are showing, and have shown over the last 4 months, the form of genuine relegation contenders. Meanwhile, we have shown the sort of upper mid-table form that I, and I think may others, expected of us at the beginning of the year. We started terribly, and have been playing catchup since October, but while results like today are frustrating, I think you would have to be pretty unreasonably pessimistic to suggest that we are worse than the teams around us, and therefore nailed on for relegation.
Amen brother. We are clearly not too bad a side. But we need to get a couple of consecutive wins soon
 

Victor1986

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I like the positve original post. However not trying to diminish it but it's easy to select data to support a particular point of view. Over the last 8 league games we've picked up 7 points. That's relegation form.
And I wouldn't say we've got many, if any, easy games left. We've got to play a lot of teams down in the mire with us and they will presumably be fighting for their lives.
No games are "easy" and it's easy to kid yourself. This is going to be a real dog fight.
 

makv

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No games are "easy" and it's easy to kid yourself. This is going to be a real dog fight.
I think we’re all well aware of that. But thanks for sharing.
 

LowerSouth

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Last season we had 41 points from 30 games,compared to 32 now .
It’s going to be tough,but at “1.44 points per game” we should do it.
Just booked tickets for Accrington & Blackpool.
COYY’s
 

ttg17

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Messages
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I like the positve original post. However not trying to diminish it but it's easy to select data to support a particular point of view. Over the last 8 league games we've picked up 7 points. That's relegation form.
And I wouldn't say we've got many, if any, easy games left. We've got to play a lot of teams down in the mire with us and they will presumably be fighting for their lives.
That’s fair. Picking a ‘starting point’ is always going to be an admittedly arbitrary exercise. I’d also add the caveat that even if we were to continue this form we’d finish on fewer points than we achieved last year (55 v 56), so it would still be going close to the wire.

But I think there are reasons for optimism in that we have displayed this ‘top 8’ form DESPITE that terrible run over Christmas, and that our squad is without doubt stronger on February 5 than it was on December 31, suggesting that we could, and probably should, kick on and improve that form.
 

Shosho

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Updated my basic results thing.

Its going to be close!
Screenshot 2019-02-05 at 09.21.20.png

Experimental361 has us around 15% chance of of relegation...


Screenshot 2019-02-05 at 09.24.56.png

The encouraging thing from above:

We still have to play Wimbledon/Bradford/Gillingham/Rochdale/Shrewsbury/Walsall/Scunthorpe - 7 of the 9 teams below us with a greater chance of relegation...
 

Sarge

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Updated my basic results thing.

Its going to be close!
View attachment 1096

Experimental361 has us around 15% chance of of relegation...


View attachment 1097

The encouraging thing from above:

We still have to play Wimbledon/Bradford/Gillingham/Rochdale/Shrewsbury/Walsall/Scunthorpe - 7 of the 9 teams below us with a greater chance of relegation...
Win those games and we'll be safe then
 
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