Matches The League 1 Promotion Run In

Last season it took us until the last 15 minutes against Gillingham with Sam's Winnall and Long x 2 to grab a win from the grasps of defeat and achieve 65 points. We then lost the next game against Wimbledon so actually started our 44th game on the same points as we have today and with an inferior goal difference. No games are easy at this stage of the season and we could just as easily put 3 or 4 past Ipswich and then lose to Morecambe (it's the Oxford way!) but we're in an exceptionally good position and one that maybe allows us to give Browne, Baldock, Henry, Moore and others the chance to get fully fit ahead of the final weeks of the season.
 
A lovely little update after this weekends fixtures. I said after Pompey that this weekend was a torrid affair where we played the most difficult game of all the challengers (MK v Rotherham aside) and that 3 points was a must because all our rivals in all likelihood would also get 3 points. To have two of our rivals drop points, and two of our closest rivals at that, as well as scoring 4 and looking comfortable and dominant against a half decent Burton is a fantastic weekend that puts us in a good spot going into a blank midweek where 5 teams chasing us, and the side above us play against bottom half opposition.

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Things to note this week:

- We're now 4 points clear of 5th place. However, it should be noted that if Wednesday and Plymouth win all their games in hand both will go above us. Plymouth play Wimbledon, Pompey and Cheltenham all at home, and Wednesday play Accrington (H) and Fleetwood (A). Not out of the realm of possibilities that both could win every game in hand by any means.

- 10 points required, four teams in the bottom half left to play. Win all 4 of those and we are in the playoffs. Any extra points we can gain before the Fleetwood game would be a huge bonus too, as it lessens the pressure going into the last few games where we face two very good L1 outfits.

- Sunderland fall at the first hurdle in their incredibly easy 4 game run before Rotherham visit. 0-0 against Charlton bearing in mind how easily we dismantled them 2 weeks previous is pretty telling. In fact, Charlton faced promotion chasers in the 5 games before Sunderland, and conceded at least 2 goals each game. Sunderland still just about favourites to finish 5th because of their easy run in, but they're dropping points like its going out of fashion.

- Pompey and Ipswich (and Bolton) still quietly picking up points. After Tuesday's game Pompey go on a run of 5 games in a row against promotion chasers. They could do us a huge favour by winning some of those, especially against Plymouth and Wycombe.
 
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Could you delete the rows for the games already played ? Not sure they add much. Though I suppose they show form ?
Or insert a blank row to show a divide.
Also Bolton aren’t quite out of it yet
 
A lovely little update after this weekends fixtures. I said after Pompey that this weekend was a torrid affair where we played the most difficult game of all the challengers (MK v Rotherham aside) and that 3 points was a must because all our rivals in all likelihood would also get 3 points. To have two of our rivals drop points, and two of our closest rivals at that, as well as scoring 4 and looking comfortable and dominant against a half decent Burton is a fantastic weekend that puts us in a good spot going into a blank midweek where 5 teams chasing us, and the side above us play against bottom half opposition.

View attachment 8385

Things to note this week:

- We're now 4 points clear of 5th place. However, it should be noted that if Wednesday and Plymouth win all their games in hand both will go above us. Plymouth play Wimbledon, Pompey and Cheltenham all at home, and Wednesday play Accrington (H) and Fleetwood (A). Not out of the realm of possibilities that both could win every game in hand by any means.

- 10 points required, four teams in the bottom half left to play. Win all 4 of those and we are in the playoffs. Any extra points we can gain before the Fleetwood game would be a huge bonus too, as it lessens the pressure going into the last few games where we face two very good L1 outfits.

- Sunderland fall at the first hurdle in their incredibly easy 4 game run before Rotherham visit. 0-0 against Charlton bearing in mind how easily we dismantled them 2 weeks previous is pretty telling. In fact, Charlton faced promotion chasers in the 5 games before Sunderland, and conceded at least 2 goals each game. Sunderland still just about favourites to finish 5th because of their easy run in, but they're dropping points like its going out of fashion.

- Pompey and Ipswich (and Bolton) still quietly picking up points. After Tuesday's game Pompey go on a run of 5 games in a row against promotion chasers. They could do us a huge favour by winning some of those, especially against Plymouth and Wycombe.
Thing is, it doesn’t really matter much whether we finish third or sixth. Also, is there a chance MK will overhaul Wigan? Basically we want to avoid having to play form teams in the playoffs, should we get there.
 
Thing is, it doesn’t really matter much whether we finish third or sixth. Also, is there a chance MK will overhaul Wigan? Basically we want to avoid having to play form teams in the playoffs, should we get there.

Well if we finish 3rd will probably mean we are the form team as others have games in hand. And obviously it does affect who we might play in the semi finals if we get there.
 
Well if we finish 3rd will probably mean we are the form team as others have games in hand. And obviously it does affect who we might play in the semi finals if we get there.
Yes, but my point is that we can’t really predict who that will be, and whether we’d rather avoid them. Main thing is just to get there.
 
Yes, but my point is that we can’t really predict who that will be, and whether we’d rather avoid them. Main thing is just to get there.

Well it did us well in the conference to face Rushden and Diamonds in the semi rather than Luton or York. I think those two would have been much harder opponents in the semis.

Can’t remember if we dropped points in the last game (Eastbourne ? ) to get that fixture.
 
Well it did us well in the conference to face Rushden and Diamonds in the semi rather than Luton or York. I think those two would have been much harder opponents in the semis.

Can’t remember if we dropped points in the last game (Eastbourne ? ) to get that fixture.
I went and we lost 1-0 if I remember correctly :(
OUFCX
 
Well it did us well in the conference to face Rushden and Diamonds in the semi rather than Luton or York. I think those two would have been much harder opponents in the semis.

Can’t remember if we dropped points in the last game (Eastbourne ? ) to get that fixture.
With play offs you just don't know.
Wasn't there a statistic that showed that teams finishing 3rd had performed worse than any other position?
 
With play offs you just don't know.
Wasn't there a statistic that showed that teams finishing 3rd had performed worse than any other position?
The really tricky team could be the one that finishes sixth, certainly. Though sadly that wasn’t the case last year.
 
Could you delete the rows for the games already played ? Not sure they add much. Though I suppose they show form ?
Or insert a blank row to show a divide.
Also Bolton aren’t quite out of it yet
Updated my previous post to hide games already played. I'll run with that format for any posts from now, and leave the original post to show games played.

Thing is, it doesn’t really matter much whether we finish third or sixth. Also, is there a chance MK will overhaul Wigan? Basically we want to avoid having to play form teams in the playoffs, should we get there.
I think there is every chance MK overhaul Wigan. They look brilliant at the moment. Run in is easier than Wigan's and Wigan have a bunch of midweek games that can always go either way. In terms of where we finish, we're good enough to beat every team in this league, but I think best case scenario is to come up against teams that play football rather than brutish teams. I'd fancy our chances more against a Sheffield Wednesday than I would a Wycombe, for example.

But saying that the most important thing to focus on is getting as many points on the board as possible and not even think about who we may or may not play in the semis. I'd be concerned if the coaching staff were looking at doing anything but winning every game!
 
A lovely little update after this weekends fixtures. I said after Pompey that this weekend was a torrid affair where we played the most difficult game of all the challengers (MK v Rotherham aside) and that 3 points was a must because all our rivals in all likelihood would also get 3 points. To have two of our rivals drop points, and two of our closest rivals at that, as well as scoring 4 and looking comfortable and dominant against a half decent Burton is a fantastic weekend that puts us in a good spot going into a blank midweek where 5 teams chasing us, and the side above us play against bottom half opposition.

View attachment 8388

Things to note this week:

- We're now 4 points clear of 5th place. However, it should be noted that if Wednesday and Plymouth win all their games in hand both will go above us. Plymouth play Wimbledon, Pompey and Cheltenham all at home, and Wednesday play Accrington (H) and Fleetwood (A). Not out of the realm of possibilities that both could win every game in hand by any means.

- 10 points required, four teams in the bottom half left to play. Win all 4 of those and we are in the playoffs. Any extra points we can gain before the Fleetwood game would be a huge bonus too, as it lessens the pressure going into the last few games where we face two very good L1 outfits.

- Sunderland fall at the first hurdle in their incredibly easy 4 game run before Rotherham visit. 0-0 against Charlton bearing in mind how easily we dismantled them 2 weeks previous is pretty telling. In fact, Charlton faced promotion chasers in the 5 games before Sunderland, and conceded at least 2 goals each game. Sunderland still just about favourites to finish 5th because of their easy run in, but they're dropping points like its going out of fashion.

- Pompey and Ipswich (and Bolton) still quietly picking up points. After Tuesday's game Pompey go on a run of 5 games in a row against promotion chasers. They could do us a huge favour by winning some of those, especially against Plymouth and Wycombe.

Some great stats, hats off to you.

With so many teams in the hunt for that sixth place your 75 points could easily surpassed. My guess is sixth place will be 78/79 points.
 
A lovely little update after this weekends fixtures. I said after Pompey that this weekend was a torrid affair where we played the most difficult game of all the challengers (MK v Rotherham aside) and that 3 points was a must because all our rivals in all likelihood would also get 3 points. To have two of our rivals drop points, and two of our closest rivals at that, as well as scoring 4 and looking comfortable and dominant against a half decent Burton is a fantastic weekend that puts us in a good spot going into a blank midweek where 5 teams chasing us, and the side above us play against bottom half opposition.

View attachment 8388

Things to note this week:

- We're now 4 points clear of 5th place. However, it should be noted that if Wednesday and Plymouth win all their games in hand both will go above us. Plymouth play Wimbledon, Pompey and Cheltenham all at home, and Wednesday play Accrington (H) and Fleetwood (A). Not out of the realm of possibilities that both could win every game in hand by any means.

- 10 points required, four teams in the bottom half left to play. Win all 4 of those and we are in the playoffs. Any extra points we can gain before the Fleetwood game would be a huge bonus too, as it lessens the pressure going into the last few games where we face two very good L1 outfits.

- Sunderland fall at the first hurdle in their incredibly easy 4 game run before Rotherham visit. 0-0 against Charlton bearing in mind how easily we dismantled them 2 weeks previous is pretty telling. In fact, Charlton faced promotion chasers in the 5 games before Sunderland, and conceded at least 2 goals each game. Sunderland still just about favourites to finish 5th because of their easy run in, but they're dropping points like its going out of fashion.

- Pompey and Ipswich (and Bolton) still quietly picking up points. After Tuesday's game Pompey go on a run of 5 games in a row against promotion chasers. They could do us a huge favour by winning some of those, especially against Plymouth and Wycombe.

Been staring at this for ages trying to work out if we're "likely" to get the play offs or not...

F###ed if I know!

Win the four "easier" games in green and one of the other five and it's a probably a yes

...or instead of winning at least one orange type game, we pick up some draws for Plymouth (A) and Sunderland (H). This means dropped points for them that probably tips Playoffs probability further in our favour?

Either way, these two scenarios make Shrewsbury (A) a massive game.
 
hit the playoffs as an/the 'in form' team & I reckon it'll be third time lucky
 
77 points will be enough.
74 points has always been enough in the past decade but I think you're right - this year, there are more competitive teams around the play-offs and we could see teams getting relegated with even less points than normal.
 
We'll see come the end of the season, but I stand by my past assertions that I'd be really surprised if 75 isn't enough. This conversation comes up every year, and every year 75 is enough. I also don't get the argument that more teams in it means more points required? Surely the more competitive it is the more likely it is that teams take points off each other in the run in, leading to lower points required? Especially as every team still has several games left to play against each other.

We play 5 games v the promotion chasers, Rotherham 6, Wigan 5, MK 4, Sunderland 3, Wycombe 4, Wednesday 4, Plymouth 8, Ipswich 5, Bolton 4 and Pompey 7. That is an insane amount of games where points will be shared around, and that doesn't even take into account games where the challengers fail to beat bottom half teams, as every side has done fairly recently.

Also worth pointing out that the two biggest strugglers in the pack currently are 5th and 7th, whilst the form team are in 10th. There'll be plenty of movement between now and the end of the season, and I may well be totally wrong and 76, maybe even 77 will be required, but it would be astronomical if 78+ was required.
 
Surely one of our stattos can run a Monte Carlo simulation and tell us the probability that 75 is enough :)
 
Win Saturday at Shrewsbury, puts us on 68, and 3 more wins afterward should do it.

Still a lot of teams at the top end to play eachother, so lots of points will be dropped at various times, between now and the end of the season.
 
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