Matches Final games permutations

[Paul Cannell]

Tonight's win changed our outlook completely.

I'll say, in more than 1 respect.

 

[SteMerritt]

Beat Forest Green on Saturday and we're as good as staying up, aren't we?

That would see us on 47 points. Even if MK Dons beat Barnsley, Morecambe beat Lincoln and Accrington beat Cambridge (which would relegate Cambridge), the table would look like this (assuming each team won 1-0):

19 Oxford 47pts GD -8
20 MK Dons 46pts GD -21
21 Morecambe 44pts GD -30
22 Accrington 44pts GD -36
23 Cambridge 40pts GD -29
24 Forest Green 27pts GD -53

So as long as we didn't lose to Accy 14-0 (with MK Dons at least drawing and Morecambe winning by a big margin) then we should be as good as up.

Not quite, you are forgetting Cambridge have an extra game (v Burton a week today). If we win, they win, and MK win, we could still go down.

 

[Osei Yaw]

Not quite, you are forgetting Cambridge have an extra game (v Burton a week today). If we win, they win, and MK win, we could still go down.

Actually I had assumed that Cambridge would simply forfeit that game as the shock of our resurgence would be too much for them to handle.

(But yes, I had missed that, thanks).

 

[holdsteady]

Basically win on Saturday and we are either safe or it’s in our own hands against Accrington, anything other than a win and we are looking around at other results.

We have won a single game in 18, it can’t be that shocking that we might have to win a couple more to stay up, it’s a shite league this season but maybe not that shite that we are going to be handed it after two wins.

There are always a few twists and turns in a relegation battle, who saw Accrington winning last night?

 

[mooro]

We could even draw on Saturday and be safe before the final day...

...if Morecambe lose on Saturday, Accrington and Cambridge draw, and then Cambridge fail to win on Wednesday

 

[Wandering Yellow]

Sorry for being too lazy to look this up, but does anyone know what the average amount of points you need to stay in L1 is, and whether this season is more or less than that average?

Thanks in advance to anyone who knows as this interests me for some reason. It feels like a weaker season to me, but I don't know if in terms of points that's true?

 

[Wandering Yellow]

Beat Forest Green on Saturday and we're as good as staying up, aren't we?

That would see us on 47 points. Even if MK Dons beat Barnsley, Morecambe beat Lincoln and Accrington beat Cambridge (which would relegate Cambridge), the table would look like this (assuming each team won 1-0):

19 Oxford 47pts GD -8
20 MK Dons 46pts GD -21
21 Morecambe 44pts GD -30
22 Accrington 44pts GD -36
23 Cambridge 40pts GD -29
24 Forest Green 27pts GD -53

So as long as we didn't lose to Accy 14-0 (with MK Dons at least drawing and Morecambe winning by a big margin) then we should be as good as up.

I went to an FGR game as a neutral and they felt as good as on the beach even when they weren't mathematically down (they were as good as).

We must target this game with an attacking line-up, they could put together some sequences going forward but seemed vulnerable at the back. Peart-Harris looked ok and I wouldn't mind us taking a look at him for next season.

 

[holdsteady]

We could even draw on Saturday and be safe before the final day...

...if Morecambe lose on Saturday, Accrington and Cambridge draw, and then Cambridge fail to win on Wednesday

I can actually see Accrington and Cambridge being a draw, but no way do you want to rely on it, we have only won 10 games all season, let’s put this poor season to bed with a couple more wins.

 

[East Stand Fan]

I can actually see Accrington and Cambridge being a draw, but no way do you want to rely on it, we have only won 10 games all season, let’s put this poor season to bed with a couple more wins.

Accy v Cambridge will be very interesting as a draw may be a terrible result for both teams and Accy could even be relegated on the day. A draw would be perfect for us but those teams will probably have to step it up and throw everything they've got until a winner is scored. Cambridge have a game in hand to fall back on but that's definitely not a gimme either. As long as we get the job done though, I couldn't care less!

 

[Wandering Yellow]

Accy v Cambridge will be very interesting as a draw may be a terrible result for both teams and Accy could even be relegated on the day. A draw would be perfect for us but those teams will probably have to step it up and throw everything they've got until a winner is scored. Cambridge have a game in hand to fall back on but that's definitely not a gimme either. As long as we get the job done though, I couldn't care less!

We simply must win at FGR. No excuses. It's in our hands.

We've ridden our luck with other results a lot this season. Let's make it not matter

 

[Foley]

Sorry for being too lazy to look this up, but does anyone know what the average amount of points you need to stay in L1 is, and whether this season is more or less than that average?

Thanks in advance to anyone who knows as this interests me for some reason. It feels like a weaker season to me, but I don't know if in terms of points that's true?

I think that it is around 48 points
50 is what wouid normally guarantee staying up but there is the rare exception when it is higher than 50.
Last season though was a worse league from a relegation perspective. Fleetwood stayed up on 40 points and a -20 GD. All except FGR have already have 40 points this season.

 

[Swaby39]

I went to an FGR game as a neutral and they felt as good as on the beach even when they weren't mathematically down (they were as good as).

We must target this game with an attacking line-up, they could put together some sequences going forward but seemed vulnerable at the back. Peart-Harris looked ok and I wouldn't mind us taking a look at him for next season.

49 is the official average over recent seasons, I think. Saw it on OM the other day (if that can be trusted). 50pts is generally looked at as our equivalent of the Premier League's infamous 40pt mark for guaranteed safety.

 

[Pompeyyellows]

Look lets just win our game against FGR first. Then start looking at other results. We have no control whats so ever regarding the outcome of other games. FGR could throw a massive spanner in the works. I really hope that Mr Egg wins his bet.

 

[OUFCGav]

49 is the official average over recent seasons, I think. Saw it on OM the other day (if that can be trusted). 50pts is generally looked at as our equivalent of the Premier League's infamous 40pt mark for guaranteed safety.

Last 10 seasons - 40, 48, 35 (shortened season), 50 (3 teams separated by goal difference), 51, 50, 50, 52, 50, 51 pts

 

[West Oxon U’s]

ACCRINGTON v CAMBRIDGE U

Bonner: ‘It’s a game both teams need to win…’

Coleman: ‘ The most important home game we’ve played…’

 

[tonyw]

Our game is big.....Accrington vs. Cambridge is the mother of all relegation six pointers.

Loser is basically down; winner has a decent shot; draw probably condemns them both (unless MKD or ourselves really flunk our last two games).

 

[Sarge]

its simple isnt it, win our last two games then there's nothing to worry about

 

[OX14]

its simple isnt it, win our last two games then there's nothing to worry about

This Is Oxford United, we don't ever do anything easy.

 

[Made-in-Jericho]

Just to simplify things and take away any confusion... If EVERYONE, including us, wins one and draws one (or in Cambridge's case, wins 2 and draws one) then we are safe!
Obviously Accy v Cambridge means they can't both do this as they play each other. A draw between them would be immense for us.
Simples!

 

[Beast]

I personally think we will win on Saturday, as that win and scoring goals will give us the confidence we need and i think Accrington will get something at home to cambridge, which means we would be safe. Let’s hope so anyway!!!! COYY