Matches Final games permutations

[Northstandboy]

So this is the current table/current points/max available

OUFC 44/50
MK Dons 43/48
—————————
Morecambe 41/47
Accrington 41/47
Cambridge 40/49
FGR - RELEGATED

Clearly obvious if we win our remaining 2 we are safe. But even 1 win would maybe be enough, Accrington could be playing for their L1 status.

Accrington play Cambridge Saturday, a draw would be great, but would an Accrington win be better, what with the game in hand Cambridge have?

 

[SouthOxonOx]

If we win and Accrington win on Saturday we will be safe. Goal difference will be enough

 

[YellowTaxi]

Our goal difference being 13 more than any other team means in fact that every other club will have to be a point ahead of us.-

 

[Orkney Islands Yellow]

Thank god for that goal difference, a win for us and a Cambridge defeat on Saturday would see us safe.

 

[Osei Yaw]

Yes I agree. Our goal difference is worth another point.

@SirAndyOfCrosby

 

[SouthOxonOx]

Thank god for that goal difference, a win for us and a Cambridge defeat on Saturday would see us safe.

Or an MK Don's defeat

 

[Wallop]

Or an MK Don's defeat

It’s very simple - if we win either of our remaining games and either MK or Cambridge drop any points in any of their remaining games, then barring ridiculous score lines, we are safe.

 

[Wallop]

So this is the current table/current points/max available

OUFC 44/50
MK Dons 43/49
—————————
Morecambe 41/47
Accrington 41/47
Cambridge 40/49
FGR - RELEGATED

Clearly obvious if we win our remaining 2 we are safe. But even 1 win would maybe be enough, Accrington could be playing for their L1 status.

Accrington play Cambridge Saturday, a draw would be great, but would an Accrington win be better, what with the game in hand Cambridge have?

MK can’t get 48 points.

 

[unification]

It blows my mind that there are still five teams that have scored fewer than us this season - including tonight’s opponents Cheltenham.

We’ve also conceded less than everyone in the bottom half of the table with the exception of Fleetwood.

Beat FGR and I reckon that’ll be enough. We were pants against them at home though so I’m not breathing that sigh of relief yet.

 

[OX14]

A win for us Saturday and if MK fail to beat Barnsley on Saturday we will also be safe. Even if Accrington and Morecambe win on Saturday It would mean the last game we could lose and stay up on goal difference.

 

[dickwalton1964]

It’s very simple - if we win either of our remaining games and either MK or Cambridge drop any points in any of their remaining games, then barring ridiculous score lines, we are safe.

What about Morecambe though ?

 

[OX14]

What about Morecambe though ?

Both Morecambe and Accrington are 3 points behind us and with worse goal difference. We only need 1 win out of the last 2 games to finish above both of them on goal difference even if they win both of their last 2 games.

Cambridge have 3 games left but are 4 points behind, if we win 1 game out of the last 2 they could only overtake us if they win all their last 3 games due to again us having a better goal difference.

MK need to win both of their games to overtake us if we win one game out of our last 2. A win and a draw for them would see them below us due to once again us having a better goal difference.

 

[McVicar]

What about Morecambe though ?

They can't catch us if we win on Saturday

 

[holdsteady]

A draw and a win in our remaining games could still see us relegated if Cambridge and MK Dons win all their remaining games though so a win on Saturday is a massive result, whatever happens elsewhere it will leave it in our hands (maybe safe) and by the last knowing exactly what we need to do.

Shows what a huge win that was tonight.

 

[OX14]

A draw and a win in our remaining games could still see us relegated if Cambridge and MK Dons win all their remaining games though so a win on Saturday is a massive result, whatever happens elsewhere it will leave it in our hands (maybe safe) and by the last knowing exactly what we need to do.

Shows what a huge win that was tonight.

That is very true. Accrington v Cambridge on Saturday is huge too. Anything but a Cambridge win works in our favour. I'm hoping Barnsley go to Mk with a point to prove after their disappointing result tonight at home to Ipswich.

 

[Wallop]

Both Morecambe and Accrington are 3 points behind us and with worse goal difference. We only need 1 win out of the last 2 games to finish above both of them on goal difference even if they win both of their last 2 games.

Cambridge have 3 games left but are 4 points behind, if we win 1 game out of the last 2 they could only overtake us if they win all their last 3 games due to again us having a better goal difference.

MK need to win both of their games to overtake us if we win one game out of our last 2. A win and a draw for them would see them below us due to once again us having a better goal difference.

What I said but in greater detail - quite right.

 

[tonyw]

It's just building on what's already been said.....

.....but if we go to FGR and win on Saturday (which, against the worst team in the league, and suddenly with us having a bit of confidence, ought to be doable)....

.....then any of Cambridge failing to beat Accrington or MKD failing to beat Barnsley on Saturday, or Cambridge failing to beat Burton next Wednesday would mean that we were (realistically if not mathematically) safe before the final day.

Tonight's win changed our outlook completely.

 

[m]

Well there can be no doubt about one thing.

Those supporters of MK Dons, Cambridge and Morecambe who were nervously tapping their phones last night had a thoroughly miserable time of it.

Pleasing.

 

[East Stand Fan]

Leapfrogging MK Dons is another bonus for us as it's one more team into the mix. Accrington winning last night wasn't ideal but that will have more of an affect on Cambridge, MK and Morecambe than us right now.

 

[Osei Yaw]

Beat Forest Green on Saturday and we're as good as staying up, aren't we?

That would see us on 47 points. Even if MK Dons beat Barnsley, Morecambe beat Lincoln and Accrington beat Cambridge (which would relegate Cambridge), the table would look like this (assuming each team won 1-0):

19 Oxford 47pts GD -8
20 MK Dons 46pts GD -21
21 Morecambe 44pts GD -30
22 Accrington 44pts GD -36
23 Cambridge 40pts GD -29
24 Forest Green 27pts GD -53

So as long as we didn't lose to Accy 14-0 (with MK Dons at least drawing and Morecambe winning by a big margin) then we should be as good as up.