Fan's View - Walsall at home

[Paul B]

Fan's View - Walsall

 

[Manorman]

Can’t seem to get it load the full text Paul. Maybe it’s me but could you check the link please.

 

[Notaswindonfan]

I can’t either, been waiting all afternoon for your report

 

[bicesterox]

Not working on fb either

 

[Paul B]

Ok. I'll sort it.

 

[Paul B]

Try again. Hopefully should work now.

 

[yellowbow]

Try again. Hopefully should work now.

An interesting but, unfortunately, very depressing read Paul..

 

[Manorlounger]

An interesting but, unfortunately, very depressing read Paul..

No arguing with that.

Nail on head Paul. I would be so pleased if KR read this. Even more pleased if he stopped to think how he could resolve the issues and, actually came up with a solution.

Trouble is, read or not, he won't.

 

[thegrumpyporter]

Thanks Paul you have knack of reflecting what many of us are feeling. I find increasingly with this side I am applauding politely occasionally when the increasingly rare moment of good team football is displayed. The occasions promoting us to stand up in excitement are just not happening. When Josh was brought on in the last couple of minutes, I thought KRs definitely loosing it now, that's a tactic usually designed to waste time not when your loosing. When I heard the KR rad Ox interview after the game I questioned my eyesight and memory, but came to a KR is getting delusional decision. I'm not a KR out but he needs to take a good hard look at his emotions and decision making.

 

[Jerome'SAle]

Tactically you have it spot on for my money. KR can point to possession all he wants, but Walsall were merrily conceding the possession so they could pick us off on the counter attack, and they looked dangerous every time they did it. There is a big difference between a "shot" and a "chance", Walsall had the quality opportunities. Hiding behind the stats like this is a little insulting in my opinion, but to be fair Im not sure what else Robinson can say at this point, the after match interviews are a hiding to nothing when you are on a bad run.

 

[Shosho]

Tactically you have it spot on for my money. KR can point to possession all he wants, but Walsall were merrily conceding the possession so they could pick us off on the counter attack, and they looked dangerous every time they did it. There is a big difference between a "shot" and a "chance", Walsall had the quality opportunities. Hiding behind the stats like this is a little insulting in my opinion, but to be fair Im not sure what else Robinson can say at this point, the after match interviews are a hiding to nothing when you are on a bad run.

Oxford had the better quality chances:

https://experimental361.com/2018/09/22/league-1-timelines-22-sep-2018/#jp-carousel-17716

With regards to quality of chances created, on Saturday we created the best chances of the season in a single match.

 

[ljs]

Oxford had the better quality chances:

https://experimental361.com/2018/09/22/league-1-timelines-22-sep-2018/#jp-carousel-17716

With regards to quality of chances created, on Saturday we created the best chances of the season in a single match.

Without having looked at the charts, and only seeing the match itself, what is determining whether a chance is a good chance or not?

 

[Paul B]

Oxford had the better quality chances:

https://experimental361.com/2018/09/22/league-1-timelines-22-sep-2018/#jp-carousel-17716

With regards to quality of chances created, on Saturday we created the best chances of the season in a single match.

If that is so, and I'd argue against it, that makes our lack of a proper finisher even more horrendous that I already thought.

 

[Shosho]

Without having looked at the charts, and only seeing the match itself, what is determining whether a chance is a good chance or not?

Basically 1000s of pieces of data!

https://www.infogol.net/en/blog/education/an-introduction-to-expected-goals-11112016

https://experimental361.com/explanations/match-timelines/

 

[Shosho]

If that is so, and I'd argue against it, that makes our lack of a proper finisher even more horrendous that I already thought.

A few things to take away: our best chances fell to Henry and Mousinho. Our attack is showing signs of life. Our defence is horribly pourous.

We have conceded 44 attempts on target...19 have resulted in goals!

Whilst our attack needs improving, it’s not far off. For me, it’s at the back where we have the worry

 

[Paul B]

A few things to take away: our best chances fell to Henry and Mousinho. Our attack is showing signs of life. Our defence is horribly pourous.

We have conceded 44 attempts on target...19 have resulted in goals!

Whilst our attack needs improving, it’s not far off. For me, it’s at the back where we have the worry

Nelson's header had to be one of the best chances and but for an excellent save he would have scored. I also thought Obika had a really good chance but headed it all wrong. Would need to see it again though to be sure.

Stats need to be put into context. E.g. passing accuracy. Easy to pass across your own back line when not under pressure but much harder to play a successful pass if trying to thread a ball through for an attacker to run onto.

I agree with you about the defence and would like to believe you with regard to the attack.

 

[Witney Wag]

Most supporters look at one stat and that is the league table. All the technical stats are all well and good but at the end of the day supporters look at the score did we win lose or draw and maybe ask the question should we have won.

 

[Shosho]

Nelson's header had to be one of the best chances and but for an excellent save he would have scored. I also thought Obika had a really good chance but headed it all wrong. Would need to see it again though to be sure.

Stats need to be put into context. E.g. passing accuracy. Easy to pass across your own back line when not under pressure but much harder to play a successful pass if trying to thread a ball through for an attacker to run onto.

I agree with you about the defence and would like to believe you with regard to the attack.

Quite. Some stats are pointless. Number of passes, accuracy etc are largely pointless along with distance run.

Expected goals provides a genuine insight in to the result. Against Walsall we had the better chances...we failed to convert them. On the flip side, Walsall had inferior chances, yet scored.

I don’t deny we look poor at the minute, however we had the better chances Saturday.

 

[Sarge]

Great overview of the current on n off field situations at OUFC @Paul B .. very similar way to my own sentiments albeit articulated in a much more measured way than me

Bring on the premiershit aristocrats cup games sometimes provide hope n belief when there is doom gloom & despair in the league....one off match anything could happen...heres hoping tues sees the start of a change in fortunes, we are certainly well overdue id say

 

[Jerome'SAle]

Quite. Some stats are pointless. Number of passes, accuracy etc are largely pointless along with distance run.

Expected goals provides a genuine insight in to the result. Against Walsall we had the better chances...we failed to convert them. On the flip side, Walsall had inferior chances, yet scored.

I don’t deny we look poor at the minute, however we had the better chances Saturday.

Misleading again for me. You can spin stats how you like, for example:
30% of our shots were on target.
60% of Walsall shots were on target.

XG is good for trends but falls apart for one off games because it doesn't take into account the time of scoring. Walsall went 1 up after 25 minutes and were defending comfortably. They let us have a lot of shots from benign areas that racks the Xg score up but in the context of the game that is the perfect way to play. xg is saying we should have won that game 3-1, which doesn't stand up to the eyeball test, not for me anyway. Walsall had the ball over the line for a third too.