Matches 74 points is the holy grail

HampshireYellow said:
A point Saturday and then three on Tuesday will do nicely 👌
Click to expand...

That certainly would do nicely, looking at the remaining fixtures we are getting close to must win time,
but not yet, think i would take a narrow defeat on Saturday as long as we get a win on tuesday, i would
be a lot happier with that than if we beat Hull but then lost to Doncaster.

That tuesday game against Doncaster looks like a must win game, 3 points would keep us as part of a
group of 7 chasing 2 playoff places ( top 4 are gone ), lose or draw and i think we can kiss 5th place
goodbye.

Having said all of that its a bit of mare trying to predict too much as any team in this division looks as
capable of losing 3 in a row as they are of winning 3.
 
13 games left, 24 points off the magical 74pts.
7 wins, 3 draws.

Looking at our fixtures, I reckon we've still got a good chance, may need to win 5 of the last 8 though.
 
12 games to go, and tonight shows that there's plenty still to play for. We've had some tough games, lost a few players to injury and form, and have looked a little jaded.

But our form over the last 12 games is still pretty good with 19 points. Our home form is even better with 2.1 points per game over the last 8, and we've got 7 of our 12 games at home.

Portsmouth, Doncaster, Lincoln and Accrington are slipping points despite looking nailed on for playoffs and promotion only a few weeks ago. Hull, Peterborough and Sunderland looking strong, but things can change quickly.

I'll stick with my prediction a few months ago to say that we'll finish 4th or 5th, but the points total maybe a little lower at around 76. So 23 more needed, starting with another 3 on Saturday.
 
Scotchegg said:
12 games to go, and tonight shows that there's plenty still to play for. We've had some tough games, lost a few players to injury and form, and have looked a little jaded.

But our form over the last 12 games is still pretty good with 19 points. Our home form is even better with 2.1 points per game over the last 8, and we've got 7 of our 12 games at home.

Portsmouth, Doncaster, Lincoln and Accrington are slipping points despite looking nailed on for playoffs and promotion only a few weeks ago. Hull, Peterborough and Sunderland looking strong, but things can change quickly.

I'll stick with my prediction a few months ago to say that we'll finish 4th or 5th, but the points total maybe a little lower at around 76. So 23 more needed, starting with another 3 on Saturday.
Click to expand...
I think it will go down to the wire
 
Bit late this week - 1.75 PPG needed now, a win today and it's definitely game on!
 
We are currently predicted to pip Ipswich to 6th place on goal difference with 73 points on Nate Silver's FiveThityEight site.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

League One Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's League One predictions
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com
 
2.1 PPG needed now, I think we can start to make alternative plans for the May Bank Holiday weekend.
 
"We set a points target after ten games of the season which is still achievable now. We will talk about those targets at the end of the season and explain what they were and why."

Looks like Karl just justified the existence of this thread... is it 74 by any chance?
 
Yellow There! said:
"We set a points target after ten games of the season which is still achievable now. We will talk about those targets at the end of the season and explain what they were and why."

Looks like Karl just justified the existence of this thread... is it 74 by any chance?
Click to expand...
The target is 70 points according to KR.
 
If not for the rise of Blackpool 70 points may have been enough with Charlton losing Bowyer, and Ipswich and Pompey falling hard. Despite their poor form I can't see Lincoln or Doncaster not hitting 70. I would think it'll probably be 72 now and the target to knock out is Doncaster. The other sides in the playoffs are probably going to stay.
 
Teams current ppg would indicate that 70 points will be nowhere near enough, and 74 still won't get you there.

It's been this way for many weeks, even though it was said teams will not keep up their ppg. While this has shown to be correct of the top two or three, it's been quite consistent for whichever teams have occupied the play off places. I see no reason why it should decrease dramatically in the closing stages of the season.

Pos Team .........pld- pts - ppg - final pts
1. Hull .................37 - 69 - 1.865 - 86
2. Peterborough . 36 - 66 - 1.833 - 84

3. Sunderland .... 35 - 64 - 1.829 - 84
4. Lincoln ...........36 - 62 - 1.722 - 79
5. Doncaster .......34 - 57 - 1.676 - 77
6. Blackpool .......34 - 56 - 1.647 - 76

7. Portsmouth .....35 - 55 - 1.571 - 72
8. Ipswich ........... 35 - 54 - 1.543 - 71
9. Accrington ......35 - 53 - 1.514 - 70
10. Charlton ........37 - 56 - 1.514 - 70
11. Oxford ...........36 - 53 - 1.472 - 68
12. Gillingham ..... 37 - 54 - 1.459 - 67

With 10 games to go, compare to five weeks (8 or 9 games) ago, below.
Then 84 points was needed for top two, same as now.
78 points were required for play offs, Blackpool now predicted 6th on 76 points.
70 points would have got you to 10th, now it gets 9th.

Pos Team ..........pld- pts - ppg - final pts
1. Lincoln ........... 28 - 56 - 2.00 - 92
2. Peterbrough ... 28 - 55 - 1.96 - 90

3. Doncaster ...... 27 - 49 - 1.81 - 83
4. Hull ................ 30 - 53 - 1.77 - 81
5. Portsmouth ... 28 - 48 - 1.71 - 79
6. Accrington ..... 27 - 46 - 1.70 - 78

7. Sunderland .... 28 - 47 - 1.68 - 77
8. Oxford ........... 27 - 44 - 1.63 - 75
9. Blackpool ..... 26 - 40 - 1.54 - 71
10. Ipswich ........ 27 - 41 - 1.52 - 70
11. Charlton ...... 29 - 44 - 1.52 - 70
 
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