Matches 74 points is the holy grail

m said:
That's very nice.

What of swindon though?
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Here's a (sort of) serious question. Given Swindon's financial situation etc., would we rather:
A- That they went bust, and never came back, in any form
B- That they went bust, re-formed as 'AFC Swindon', and worked their way up from (say) tier 10 of the pyramid
C- That they continued to struggle for cash, were relegated in three successive seasons- down to Conference South
My vote would be C- and even better if we could loan them a few youth team players, just to get a taste of semi-pro football. Scenario C is by far the most amusing
 
Oxymoron said:
View attachment 5586
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These predictions often give far more wins and losses than draws, which artificially increases the points totals. I'd be amazed if we have 3 teams getting more than 90 points and 3 more with over 80. That would be the highest scoring top 6 the league has ever seen!!

Anything above 75/76 points should be enough, and I think we'll get them with a little to spare.
 
Northernyellow said:
Here's a (sort of) serious question. Given Swindon's financial situation etc., would we rather:
A- That they went bust, and never came back, in any form
B- That they went bust, re-formed as 'AFC Swindon', and worked their way up from (say) tier 10 of the pyramid
C- That they continued to struggle for cash, were relegated in three successive seasons- down to Conference South
My vote would be C- and evewe could loan them a few youth team players, just to get a taste of semi-pro football. Scenario C is by far the most amusing
Click to expand...
I would prefer a different version of B.
Bi. Reform as AFC Swindon and replace MK Dons in League One. MK Dons being relegated to tier 10.
 
Northernyellow said:
Here's a (sort of) serious question. Given Swindon's financial situation etc., would we rather:
A- That they went bust, and never came back, in any form
B- That they went bust, re-formed as 'AFC Swindon', and worked their way up from (say) tier 10 of the pyramid
C- That they continued to struggle for cash, were relegated in three successive seasons- down to Conference South
My vote would be C- and even better if we could loan them a few youth team players, just to get a taste of semi-pro football. Scenario C is by far the most amusing
Click to expand...

C. And they can have 5 or 6 seasons in the NL South.
 
Wallop said:
1.58 points per game needed now, big game on Tuesday night.
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We are currently on 1.63 ppg. Taking all teams current ppg, 74 points will still only get 8th place. Could be 78 needed for playoffs.

Almost 30 games in now, so other teams above (2 out of Portsmouth, Accrington or Sunderland?) are going to have to start dropping quite a few points to reduce their current ppg for 74 to be enough.

Pos. Team ...... pld - pts - ppg - final pts
1. Lincoln ......... 28 - 56 - 2.00 - 92
2. Peterbrough .. 28 - 55 - 1.96 - 90
3. Doncaster .... 27 - 49 - 1.81 - 83
4. Hull ............... 30 - 53 - 1.77 - 81
5. Portsmouth .. 28 - 48 - 1.71 - 79
6. Accrington ..... 27 - 46 - 1.70 - 78
7. Sunderland .... 28 - 47 - 1.68 - 77
8. Oxford ........... 27 - 44 - 1.63 - 75
9. Blackpool ..... 26 - 40 - 1.54 - 71
10. Ipswich ........ 27 - 41 - 1.52 - 70
11. Charlton ...... 29 - 44 - 1.52 - 70
 
ljs said:
We are currently on 1.63 ppg. Taking all teams current ppg, 74 points will still only get 8th place. Could be 78 needed for playoffs.

Almost 30 games in now, so other teams above (2 out of Portsmouth, Accrington or Sunderland?) are going to have to start dropping quite a few points to reduce their current ppg for 74 to be enough.

Pos. Team ...... pld - pts - ppg - final pts
1. Lincoln ......... 28 - 56 - 2.00 - 92
2. Peterbrough .. 28 - 55 - 1.96 - 90
3. Doncaster .... 27 - 49 - 1.81 - 83
4. Hull ............... 30 - 53 - 1.77 - 81
5. Portsmouth .. 28 - 48 - 1.71 - 79
6. Accrington ..... 27 - 46 - 1.70 - 78
7. Sunderland .... 28 - 47 - 1.68 - 77
8. Oxford ........... 27 - 44 - 1.63 - 75
9. Blackpool ..... 26 - 40 - 1.54 - 71
10. Ipswich ........ 27 - 41 - 1.52 - 70
11. Charlton ...... 29 - 44 - 1.52 - 70
Click to expand...
I can see all three of them, and Doncaster, going on bad runs. Posh and Hull drop some silly points too. Only nailed-on auto at the minute looks to be Lincoln.
 
Form plays a huge part in this too. It's well documented about our slow start to the season, but the first third of the season gave us on average 1 point per game. The second third is over 2.4 points per game. So the thought of needing 1.7+ points between now and the season is more than possible.
 
ljs said:
We are currently on 1.63 ppg. Taking all teams current ppg, 74 points will still only get 8th place. Could be 78 needed for playoffs.

Almost 30 games in now, so other teams above (2 out of Portsmouth, Accrington or Sunderland?) are going to have to start dropping quite a few points to reduce their current ppg for 74 to be enough.

Pos. Team ...... pld - pts - ppg - final pts
1. Lincoln ......... 28 - 56 - 2.00 - 92
2. Peterbrough .. 28 - 55 - 1.96 - 90
3. Doncaster .... 27 - 49 - 1.81 - 83
4. Hull ............... 30 - 53 - 1.77 - 81
5. Portsmouth .. 28 - 48 - 1.71 - 79
6. Accrington ..... 27 - 46 - 1.70 - 78
7. Sunderland .... 28 - 47 - 1.68 - 77
8. Oxford ........... 27 - 44 - 1.63 - 75
9. Blackpool ..... 26 - 40 - 1.54 - 71
10. Ipswich ........ 27 - 41 - 1.52 - 70
11. Charlton ...... 29 - 44 - 1.52 - 70
Click to expand...
Possible that 74 might fall short but it would have been enough in any of the last 10 years for at least 6th place and so if we do achieve that total, we’d be very, very unlucky to miss out on the play-offs. I would wager a substantial amount that a number of the top eight will achieve a worse PPG over the rest of the season then they have to date.
 
It's based on nothing more than gut feeling, but if feels like the second half of seasons tend to create more draws and therefore the points per game average drops.

At the beginning of a season teams are fitter, fresher, and tend to play with more freedom. Both teams start games looking for wins and games are often more open. The weather is good, players enjoy training and confidence is high.

As the season goes on, players get tired, injuries occur, and cold, dark and dreary days take their toll. Clubs start looking at league positions and setting up more defensively to settle for a point rather than going all out for a win. And more draws means that only 2 points are shared between games rather than 3, thus reducing overall points.

Because we start so badly, our points per game look worse. The first 16 games gave us 1ppg, the last 11 have given 2.55ppg. We obviously have some big games coming up but if we come through the next few weeks with anything like 2ppg then we'll be in a very strong position.
 
Not much difference between this season and last season at this stage. For what its worth I think we need 78 points

2020/2021

8Oxford United2713594334944


2019/2020

8Oxford United27128745271844
 
Back to 1.67 per game needed now but more importantly we need to be able to beat a side towards the right end of the table.......
 
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