National News Rishi Sunak

Essexyellows said:
Just out of interest who do the "left leaning" folk think should pay back the estimated £310 -£410 billion (the estimated cost of the pandemic?
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I'd like to see it split between Premier League footballers, Chis Martin out of Coldplay, everyone who served in the Tory cabinet post-2010 and you.

I'll let you guys work out the percentages.
 
m said:
I'd like to see it split between Premier League footballers, Chis Martin out of Coldplay, everyone who served in the Tory cabinet post-2010 and you.

I'll let you guys work out the percentages.
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Residents of Leicester should pay an additional 25%.
 
Eric Blair said:
That did escalate quickly! Just to confirm my stance on a few things....

No I don't want to reverse Brexit at all. I was just pointing out that it would be the best way to increase the UK economic performance. I totally agree that another referendum cant be held for a long time and it would need another referendum to rejoin (if we wanted to and if they wanted us).

The Times article made me laugh as it was so obviously designed to wind people up but for the avoidance of doubt I dont think people who voted for Brexit are thick and I do believe in universal suffrage.

On Rachel Reeves and normal background. She went to a normal comprehensive school (like me) and doesn't have a huge amount of family wealth to fall back on and doesn't have a sense of entitlement (probably like all of us). Yes, she hasn't run a business but most people havent. I also dont think that qualifies you to be Chancellor just like being a doctor or nurse doesnt qualify you to be SoS for Health.

The economic performance (good or otherwise) is never down to one thing - which is why it is often wrong to compare economies without controlling the variables. The biggest impact on the UK economy is undoubtedly Covid. Brexit has had a negative impact though - we export less in terms of volumes and what we do export is now more expensive. We also have a skills shortage (which may help rise wages but also contributes to inflation).

@PottersRightBoot - the laffer curve is completely discredited and all the evidence suggests it isnt true (I'm on home turf here). Where it has been used Reagan in the 1980s is a good example, it has been a disaster. The Congressional Library has some great papers on this which I will try and dig up (although granted it's not everyone's way of having a fun time).

@holdsteady - definitely save your quid. I would absolutely bomb in a campaign. Not populist/popular enough and my more tax ideas would go down like a lead balloon.
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Who’s discredited the Laffer curve then? Abraham
Lincoln?
I’d much prefer my chancellor to have business experience.I’d much prefer most of my politicians to have business experience actually.

You cannot baldly say Brexit has had a negative impact.

Most commercial activity post oir dec 19 exit is still clouded by the pandemic.

On a micro level , I have a client who was initially badly affected by Brexit and market dislocation, who’s found a way and now doing much better than they were before.
 
PottersRightBoot said:
You cannot baldly say Brexit has had a negative impact.
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Thanks @PottersRightBoot . It’s not me saying it it’s the OBR (they gave it a 4% decline on GDP if my memory is right) and also the IFS. These are pretty heavyweight organisations saying exactly that Brexit has had a negative impact. You can make a sovereignty argument for Brexit but not an economic one.
 
Poor James Cleverley is getting a lot of stick for calling a shithole a shithole. It's like when Gordon Brown called that bigoted woman a bigoted woman.
 
Whingit said:
Poor James Cleverley is getting a lot of stick for calling a shithole a shithole. It's like when Gordon Brown called that bigoted woman a bigoted woman.
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But his party have been in power for thirteen years. They must bear at least some responsibility for the way a lot of England outside the south-east is impoverished and falling apart.
 
Eric Blair said:
Thanks @PottersRightBoot . It’s not me saying it it’s the OBR (they gave it a 4% decline on GDP if my memory is right) and also the IFS. These are pretty heavyweight organisations saying exactly that Brexit has had a negative impact. You can make a sovereignty argument for Brexit but not an economic one.
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Course you can!

Look at the way the major European economies are performing compared to Uk. ( Germany is in recession.)

Look at the dozens and dozens of trade deals that have been signed with the developing world .

Look at what’s been signed off with Nissan Sunderland just last night.

Etc etc.,
 
PottersRightBoot said:
Course you can!

Look at the way the major European economies are performing compared to Uk. ( Germany is in recession.)

Look at the dozens and dozens of trade deals that have been signed with the developing world .

Look at what’s been signed off with Nissan Sunderland just last night.

Etc etc.,
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No, you cant make comparisons with other European countries in that way. Germany isnt in recession because of Brexit or because the UK left the EU. The Nissan Sunderland announcement (great news by the way) wasn't made because of Brexit.

Germany has a completely different economic make up to the UK. It has a much bigger manufacturing base and its decline is because people and businesses are buying less stuff. Supply chains are messed up because of global conflict which disproportionately impacts manufacturing. Germany was more reliant on Russian gas for its energy supply so was affected much more by the Ukraine invasion. None of this to do with Brexit.

It's similarly complex in the UK. Brexit isnt responsible completely for the situation we find ourselves in. The UK economy is in complete stagnation and will be for a long time. One of the correct points you made was that the biggest factor of this was Covid and the debt created from furlough and other measures. It would be wrong to say that the UK economy is a mess purely because of Brexit just as it would be to say that Brexit has been a success because we arent in recession and Germany is.

So to say that Brexit was a success because we arent in recession and German is in recession is completely wrong. It's much more complex.

Basically - not every UK success is because of Brexit and not every failure is because of Brexit.

But what is absolutely indisputable is that Brexit has made our economy less resilient and made us poorer. Here is the evidence from the latest independent OBR report:
1700831123636.png
 
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Eric Blair said:
No, you cant make comparisons with other European countries in that way. Germany isnt in recession because of Brexit or because the UK left the EU. The Nissan Sunderland announcement (great news by the way) wasn't made because of Brexit.

Germany has a completely different economic make up to the UK. It has a much bigger manufacturing base and its decline is because people and businesses are buying less stuff. Supply chains are messed up because of global conflict which disproportionately impacts manufacturing. Germany was more reliant on Russian gas for its energy supply so was affected much more by the Ukraine invasion. None of this to do with Brexit.

It's similarly complex in the UK. Brexit isnt responsible completely for the situation we find ourselves in. The UK economy is in complete stagnation and will be for a long time. One of the correct points you made was that the biggest factor of this was Covid and the debt created from furlough and other measures. It would be wrong to say that the UK economy is a mess purely because of Brexit just as it would be to say that Brexit has been a success because we arent in recession and Germany is.

So to say that Brexit was a success because we arent in recession and German is in recession is completely wrong. It's much more complex.

Basically - not every UK success is because of Brexit and not every failure is because of Brexit.

But what is absolutely indisputable is that Brexit has made our economy less resilient and made us poorer. Here is the evidence from the latest independent OBR report:
View attachment 16927
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So the fact that Britain has been out performing its European rivals economically since 2020 is absolutely nothing to do with Brexit.

Partcularly, because a think tank - with dubious rate of predictive success - says so.

And we’re not allowed to make comparisons with other countries.

Hmm.

British big advantage is the whole business world speaks English. And Brexit, my view, allows us a better platform to develop that advantage. And I’ve seen this happen practically with clients in last six month.

Nice speaking to you Eric. No relation to Tony are you?
 
PottersRightBoot said:
So the fact that Britain has been out performing its European rivals economically since 2020 is absolutely nothing to do with Brexit.

Partcularly, because a think tank - with dubious rate of predictive success - says so.

And we’re not allowed to make comparisons with other countries.

Hmm.

British big advantage is the whole business world speaks English. And Brexit, my view, allows us a better platform to develop that advantage. And I’ve seen this happen practically with clients in last six month.

Nice speaking to you Eric. No relation to Tony are you?
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The OBR isn't a think tank. It's an independent financial body set up by the UK government.

Of course you can make comparisons with other countries but you have to admit that there are lots of reasons why countries do well and lots of reasons why they don't. You need to look at evidence which isolates cause and effect. That's why economic growth or contraction isnt a good indicator as it encompasses lots of things like covid, Ukraine invasion - all of which impacts individual countries in individual ways.

This is a genuine question: I've shown you independent evidence published by probably the UK's leading economic authority showing you that Brexit has had a negative impact on the UK economy. Surely this carries weight with you? And you cant dismiss it? Can you show me evidence that it has had a positive impact? Specifically Brexit and specifically economic growth. If you can't then I dont think your argument has much validity.
 
Eric Blair said:
The OBR isn't a think tank. It's an independent financial body set up by the UK government.

Of course you can make comparisons with other countries but you have to admit that there are lots of reasons why countries do well and lots of reasons why they don't. You need to look at evidence which isolates cause and effect. That's why economic growth or contraction isnt a good indicator as it encompasses lots of things like covid, Ukraine invasion - all of which impacts individual countries in individual ways.

This is a genuine question: I've shown you independent evidence published by probably the UK's leading economic authority showing you that Brexit has had a negative impact on the UK economy. Surely this carries weight with you? And you cant dismiss it? Can you show me evidence that it has had a positive impact? Specifically Brexit and specifically economic growth. If you can't then I dont think your argument has much validity.
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I kinda like the cut of your jib Eric, and I've read most of your books but I'm starting to think you're far too reasoned and unemotional for this forum.😁😉
 
QR said:
I kinda like the cut of your jib Eric, and I've read most of your books but I'm starting to think you're far too reasoned and unemotional for this forum.😁😉
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Thank you sir! That’s too kind.

And I know this is off topic for this thread but let’s have a massive win tomorrow!
 
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Wallop said:
He can't use a hammer, he can't use a chip and pin machine - what a man of the people he really is........
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If I was as a rich as him I wouldn’t do anything for myself either though, that would include being prime minister as well though as there must be more fun things to do when you are loaded than hanging around with politicians.
 
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