Matches 74 points is the holy grail

sideshowrob said:
On FiveThirtyEight we have a 33% chance of making the play-offs. Two weeks ago it was 23%.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

League One Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's League One predictions
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com
Click to expand...
They also have neither us, Portsmouth or Charlton making 74 points which is crazy, no way at least 1 of us won't hit that in my mind
 
NorthWestOx said:
You're probably right, but Portsmouth and Charlton both need to improve their current PPG, to average 2 PPG, to get to 74pts.

We do too of course, but I think if we can get 2 wins to take us to 74pts, due to our better GD, unless they thrash a team, Portsmouth and Charlton will need to get 75pts.
To get 75pts, Portsmouth need 7pts from 3 games, 2 wins and a draw, they can't afford a defeat, hopefully Accy can do us a favour on Tuesday.
Charlton need 9pts from 4 games to get to 75, only 3 wins would be enough for them.
Click to expand...

So, praying we win both our games...

Portsmouth need to win both of their games.
Charlton would need to win all of their games, tough ask when you see their games.
 
sideshowrob said:
On FiveThirtyEight we have a 33% chance of making the play-offs. Two weeks ago it was 23%.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

League One Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's League One predictions
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com
Click to expand...
They now give us a 35% chance of making the play-offs with a 9% chance of being promoted. Interestingly they give Portsmouth a 46% chance of making the play-offs but only a 7% chance of being promoted. Must reflect Portsmouth's record of never having won a play-off game.
 
They have underestimated eveyone at the top. Not even Hull are predicted to win both of their remaining games. Somebody needs to have a word with Nate Silver.
 
Mike_H said:
They now give us a 35% chance of making the play-offs with a 9% chance of being promoted. Interestingly they give Portsmouth a 46% chance of making the play-offs but only a 7% chance of being promoted. Must reflect Portsmouth's record of never having won a play-off game.
Click to expand...

It's worth following this link just to see the nice tick in swindon's box.
 
Wallop said:
Why? Because with that total, a club has guaranteed a League One play-off place for the past 10 years. The average seems to be about 72.5 with Chesterfield securing 6th place with 69 points on one occasion BUT get 74 points and it appears to be a nailed on play-off place.

So we have 31 points from 21 games. To achieve the 74 total, we need to average 1.72 points per game for the rest of the season. That's a tall order but only 0.11 points more per game than the 1.61 you'd need from the start of the season per game to achieve 74 points. We have three of the more straightforward games coming up where we are playing the teams in 20th, 21st and 24th in the form table:

League One Form Table

The 2023-2024 League One Form Table showing a mini table of the latest football results for every team in the division
thefishy.co.uk thefishy.co.uk

If (and I know it's a big if) we can win all three, we'd have 40 points from 24 games played and suddenly the remaining points per game needed becomes 1.54 - pretty much win half your games territory.

Watch us lose the next three now........
Click to expand...
My original post.

I am so f*****g itk.

Boom - drop the mic.
 
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