Matches Mackem back in town

[Sinner]

Having had a chance to look at the FiveThirtyEight data, it doesn't add up anyways - their latest "simulated season" sees us on 8th with 77 points, but the data shows probable wins against Sunderland, Fleetwood and Doncaster, a probable draw against MK and a defeat to Rotherham, which makes 79, neither of which are the 80 points in the first prediction - I can only think the Sunderland Echo trawled it's article from the stats before we played Morecambe.

Sunderland Echo not renowned for forensic attention to detail. Best to ignore.

 

[Essexyellows]

Sunderland Echo not renowned for forensic attention to detail. Best to ignore.

Is it a Reach (aka Retch) publication? They seem to own all the local rags and spend most of their time using FB group posts as "headlines", closely followed by an inane question like "How has the new bike line changed your life?" in a vain attempt to get people to visit their advert infested web page.

Local media eh?

 

[SirAndyOfCrosby]

Having had a chance to look at the FiveThirtyEight data, it doesn't add up anyways - their latest "simulated season" sees us on 8th with 77 points, but the data shows probable wins against Sunderland, Fleetwood and Doncaster, a probable draw against MK and a defeat to Rotherham, which makes 79, neither of which are the 80 points in the first prediction - I can only think the Sunderland Echo trawled it's article from the stats before we played Morecambe.

Yes, but in terms of total points you have to multiply all of those 'probable' wins together. For example, it's saying 45% chance of beating Sunderland and 54% chance of beating Fleetwood. You've taken that as 6 points (because in both games it is the most likely result according to them - a larger percentage chance than either a draw of defeat). However, in reality those figures suggest (more or less) a 50/50 chance of victory in each game and so statistically, by their calculations, it is more likely that we will only win 1 of them.

If it's 50/50 that you flip a coin and it is Heads once, that doesn't mean that it is 50/50 that if you flip it 3 times it will be Heads x3.