Paul Cannell
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- Joined
- 7 Dec 2017
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Tonight's win changed our outlook completely.
I'll say, in more than 1 respect.
Tonight's win changed our outlook completely.
Not quite, you are forgetting Cambridge have an extra game (v Burton a week today). If we win, they win, and MK win, we could still go down.Beat Forest Green on Saturday and we're as good as staying up, aren't we?
That would see us on 47 points. Even if MK Dons beat Barnsley, Morecambe beat Lincoln and Accrington beat Cambridge (which would relegate Cambridge), the table would look like this (assuming each team won 1-0):
19 Oxford 47pts GD -8
20 MK Dons 46pts GD -21
21 Morecambe 44pts GD -30
22 Accrington 44pts GD -36
23 Cambridge 40pts GD -29
24 Forest Green 27pts GD -53
So as long as we didn't lose to Accy 14-0 (with MK Dons at least drawing and Morecambe winning by a big margin) then we should be as good as up.
Actually I had assumed that Cambridge would simply forfeit that game as the shock of our resurgence would be too much for them to handle.Not quite, you are forgetting Cambridge have an extra game (v Burton a week today). If we win, they win, and MK win, we could still go down.
I went to an FGR game as a neutral and they felt as good as on the beach even when they weren't mathematically down (they were as good as).Beat Forest Green on Saturday and we're as good as staying up, aren't we?
That would see us on 47 points. Even if MK Dons beat Barnsley, Morecambe beat Lincoln and Accrington beat Cambridge (which would relegate Cambridge), the table would look like this (assuming each team won 1-0):
19 Oxford 47pts GD -8
20 MK Dons 46pts GD -21
21 Morecambe 44pts GD -30
22 Accrington 44pts GD -36
23 Cambridge 40pts GD -29
24 Forest Green 27pts GD -53
So as long as we didn't lose to Accy 14-0 (with MK Dons at least drawing and Morecambe winning by a big margin) then we should be as good as up.
We could even draw on Saturday and be safe before the final day...
...if Morecambe lose on Saturday, Accrington and Cambridge draw, and then Cambridge fail to win on Wednesday
Accy v Cambridge will be very interesting as a draw may be a terrible result for both teams and Accy could even be relegated on the day. A draw would be perfect for us but those teams will probably have to step it up and throw everything they've got until a winner is scored. Cambridge have a game in hand to fall back on but that's definitely not a gimme either. As long as we get the job done though, I couldn't care less!I can actually see Accrington and Cambridge being a draw, but no way do you want to rely on it, we have only won 10 games all season, let’s put this poor season to bed with a couple more wins.
We simply must win at FGR. No excuses. It's in our hands.Accy v Cambridge will be very interesting as a draw may be a terrible result for both teams and Accy could even be relegated on the day. A draw would be perfect for us but those teams will probably have to step it up and throw everything they've got until a winner is scored. Cambridge have a game in hand to fall back on but that's definitely not a gimme either. As long as we get the job done though, I couldn't care less!
I think that it is around 48 pointsSorry for being too lazy to look this up, but does anyone know what the average amount of points you need to stay in L1 is, and whether this season is more or less than that average?
Thanks in advance to anyone who knows as this interests me for some reason. It feels like a weaker season to me, but I don't know if in terms of points that's true?
49 is the official average over recent seasons, I think. Saw it on OM the other day (if that can be trusted). 50pts is generally looked at as our equivalent of the Premier League's infamous 40pt mark for guaranteed safety.I went to an FGR game as a neutral and they felt as good as on the beach even when they weren't mathematically down (they were as good as).
We must target this game with an attacking line-up, they could put together some sequences going forward but seemed vulnerable at the back. Peart-Harris looked ok and I wouldn't mind us taking a look at him for next season.
Last 10 seasons - 40, 48, 35 (shortened season), 50 (3 teams separated by goal difference), 51, 50, 50, 52, 50, 51 pts49 is the official average over recent seasons, I think. Saw it on OM the other day (if that can be trusted). 50pts is generally looked at as our equivalent of the Premier League's infamous 40pt mark for guaranteed safety.
its simple isnt it, win our last two games then there's nothing to worry about