Matches Top 6 Race 2023/24

sonofivan said:

In these days of digital data I do love some handwritten work on a bit of paper. And I enjoyed your visual summary - a fine piece of work sir!

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Why thank you squire!

Steve Gilbert said:

4 more points and we are in the play offs.

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5th could be achievable too, Barnsley have Pompey away and Blackpool away next. If they lose them and win on the last day against Northampton they will finish on 78 points. We only need 1 win and 2 draws to achieve 78 points and we would pip them to 5th on GD.

If we win Tuesday night against Lincoln they can't catch us and Blackpool would need to win both their remaining games and hope we lose both our remaining games while turning over a 7 goal deficit.

Table certainly looks alot more healthy compared to this morning

Steve Gilbert said:

4 more points and we are in the play offs.

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We are for sure.

3 more points will probably be enough with our current goal difference compared to Blackpool’s.

Yellow River said:

We are for sure.

3 more points will probably be enough with our current goal difference compared to Blackpool’s.

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This & after a long unbeaten run, Lincoln’s bubble may have burst. They will have to come and win the game, that will leave gaps.

Win Tuesday and it’s basically done barring a major goal turn around.

Barnsley also go to Portsmouth Tuesday before playing Blackpool away Saturday.

So 5th is massively on, if we can win Tuesday!

I know there are bigger fish to fry after today's results, and it's a bit silly for this to even register, but have to say I'm unreasonably pleased that today's loss means this man is almost certainly not getting playoffs this year. It would be harsh to say that Stevenage have 'bottled it' after an objectively very impressive first season back at this level, but 8 points in 10 games since the beginning of March (and, incidentally, since that infuriatingly stupid penguin dance linked above) is... pretty bad. You get the sense that, for them, they've thrown away probably the best chance they'll ever have of getting to the Championship. Oh well.

For us, though, you have to say playoffs should be all but nailed on now. Avoiding a loss on Tuesday would, I think, do it. Blackpool have, on paper, been on a decent run, with three consecutive wins. but I wouldn't say scraping 1-0 wins against one relegated side, one all-but-relegated side (Fleetwood) and one side who look to have just about avoided relegation through a good manager appointment in March (Cambridge) is particularly impressive. They'll probably have to get maximum points against Barnsley (admittedly, not looking too unlikely at the moment, but still a tricky game) and Reading (who, to their credit, have shown themselves to be a much more resilient outfit this season than many, myself included, expected them to be) to overtake us. Lincoln, as many predicted at the time, have not been able to maintain winning 5-0 every week off poor xG numbers, have hit a bit of a slump in form, and I doubt would pick up the 6 points from Cheltenham and Pompey needed to overtake us should they fail to win on Tuesday.

Leyton's fall away I've found, objectively, very disappointing. I thought they looked the real deal at our place, I was impressed. 11 points in 10 since suggests they couldn't build on it.

I do think though we shouldn't get carried away. We've had a ridiculous couple of weeks, with a literally (I think) unprecedented goal tally in Oxford United's history, but that is not going to last forever. We are not going to win each of our next three (/ six ) games 4+ goals to nil. We need to treat Lincoln, Stevenage and Exeter with the respect they deserve and focus on getting the points needed to guarantee playoffs. Hopefully that happens with a win on Tuesday.

(And once that happens, we can start thinking seriously about overtaking Barnsley..!)

If we do make the play-offs, it looks like Reading will have done us a huge favour by taking points off both Blackpool and Barnsley in recent games.

Hoping Pompey secure the title on Tuesday beating Barnsley and we beat Lincoln.

Would leave us safe in 6th unless Blackpool can overturn a +6GD in two games vs Cheltenham and Pompey.

MarkG said:

If we do make the play-offs, it looks like Reading will have done us a huge favour by taking points off both Blackpool and Barnsley in recent games.

Hoping Pompey secure the title on Tuesday beating Barnsley and we beat Lincoln.

Would leave us safe in 6th unless Blackpool can overturn a +6GD in two games vs Cheltenham and Pompey.

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Reading took points off Barnsley and Lincoln.

Blackpool have Barnsley and Reading away for their remaining games.

3 points on Tuesday will be enough in my opinion.

MarkG said:

If we do make the play-offs, it looks like Reading will have done us a huge favour by taking points off both Blackpool and Barnsley in recent games.

Hoping Pompey secure the title on Tuesday beating Barnsley and we beat Lincoln.

Would leave us safe in 6th unless Blackpool can overturn a +6GD in two games vs Cheltenham and Pompey.

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Beating Lincoln and Barnsley losing will leave us 5th.

OX14 said:

Reading took points off Barnsley and Lincoln.

Blackpool have Barnsley and Reading away for their remaining games.

3 points on Tuesday will be enough in my opinion.

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ok - i knew it was two of our play-off rivals.

The euphoria of Saturday has fully worn off now. Started worrying about finding ourselves up against it on Tuesday and wishing we'd kept a couple of the Peterborough goals in reserve. Something to do with supporting OUFC for nearly 60 years I guess.

Barbadosyellow said:

The euphoria of Saturday has fully worn off now. Started worrying about finding ourselves up against it on Tuesday and wishing we'd kept a couple of the Peterborough goals in reserve. Something to do with supporting OUFC for nearly 60 years I guess.

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Well, we hit the post twice, missed an absolute sitter and let a few other excellent chances go begging.
I'd snap your hand off for a 1-0!

MarkG said:

If we do make the play-offs, it looks like Reading will have done us a huge favour by taking points off both Blackpool and Barnsley in recent games.

Hoping Pompey secure the title on Tuesday beating Barnsley and we beat Lincoln.

Would leave us safe in 6th unless Blackpool can overturn a +6GD in two games vs Cheltenham and PoPompey.

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If we beat Lincoln it will be a minimum +7GD Blackpool will have to overturn. But then obviously this also means we also lose our final two so it would be at least two fewer than that

.... beat Lincoln by one goal, lose both of our last two by two goals and Blackpool win both their two by two goals, means they overtake us!

ljs said:

If we beat Lincoln it will be a minimum +7GD Blackpool will have to overturn. But then obviously this also means we also lose our final two so it would be at least two fewer than that

.... beat Lincoln by one goal, lose both of our last two by two goals and Blackpool win both their two by two goals, means they overtake us!

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Yes, the last couple of weeks have shown that goal difference is almost meaningless. A couple of freak results can change everything.

The easiest way to look at it is that we need 4 points from these next two home games. If Lincoln don't beat us they can only a maximum of 75 points, and Blackpool can only get 76. We'll have 77 and no other results will matter.

Scotchegg said:

Yes, the last couple of weeks have shown that goal difference is almost meaningless. A couple of freak results can change everything.

The easiest way to look at it is that we need 4 points from these next two home games. If Lincoln don't beat us they can only a maximum of 75 points, and Blackpool can only get 76. We'll have 77 and no other results will matter.

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I would hate to rely on goal difference when Blackpool play Reading - we all know how the last day of the season can turn up strange scores.

ljs said:

If we beat Lincoln it will be a minimum +7GD Blackpool will have to overturn. But then obviously this also means we also lose our final two so it would be at least two fewer than that

.... beat Lincoln by one goal, lose both of our last two by two goals and Blackpool win both their two by two goals, means they overtake us!

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Bloody hell reading that last paragraph has made me worry now lol it would be typical Oxford to score 13 goals in 3 games to then still miss out on play offs

Anyways positive hat on we will win both games this week and go marching on to Wembley

I have a feeling it will be us against Bolton in the final ( my son was playing Fc24 and he was in the play off final against Barnsley is that a coincidence or can that game read the future )

oufc1991 said:

Bloody hell reading that last paragraph has made me worry now lol it would be typical Oxford to score 13 goals in 3 games to then still miss out on play offs

Anyways positive hat on we will win both games this week and go marching on to Wembley

I have a feeling it will be us against Bolton in the final ( my son was playing Fc24 and he was in the play off final against Barnsley is that a coincidence or can that game read the future )

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Put it another way - so long as we don't lose to Lincoln, 4 points will be enough to take us into the play offs. So win 1, draw 1, lose 1 will be enough.
Hopefully we go into the play offs in better form than that though....

Blackpool are on a funny old run…

In their last eight games their fans have only seen six goals in total! You’re seeing 0.75 goals a game as a Blackpool fan in that run! Six 1-0s and two 0-0s (Oxford fans have witnessed 28 goals in the same period, nearly 5 times as many!)

They’ve scored 4 goals in 8 games but only conceded 2. Making a late run for the playoffs built on a solid defence but not much in attack! Much prefer the way we’re going about things…

Friday huge now.

Win that and it piles pressure on Lincoln. Cheltenham winning last night really helpful - they’ll be desperate for a win and can match Lincoln physically at least.

Barnsley and Blackpool can’t both win.

We love to make it hard for ourselves though
Stevenage would love to draw and leave us at the mercy of Exeter. Not looking forward to a thrilling end of the season