Sarge
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we need to tame the shrews and sink the pugwashes - up the Manor!
Matches Top 6 Race 2023/24
- Thread starter Steve Gilbert
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SirAndyOfCrosby
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Shrewsbury look rank (worse than Carlisle - for the PPG lovers out there!) and I expect Friday to be similar in performance and result to the Vale game.
Little more concerned by Fleetwood, who, after a slow start, have picked up considerably since Charlie Adam took over.
They've only lost twice in the last 12 (narrow defeats to Lincoln and Barnsley) and seem to have a bit of fight about them.
Don't get me wrong, I'm expecting 6 points from 6 - but I actually suspect that Fleetwood will be the tougher game.
Osleroad
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Exactly. As I have pointed out earlier!
Sheik djibouti
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Given Lincoln, Stevenage, Blackpool and Orients next two games, can you realistically see any of them bettering us on points over those games(assuming we perform as we feel we should, that is, which I think should be 4pts)?
IsleofWightYellow
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At what point did you fully expect to finish outside the playoffs - when Des took over?!
I’m pleasantly surprised that we are where we are too, but more so after the downturn in form we’ve had. Still, there’s signs of green shoots and that (whisper it) he might be starting to turn things around… two wins in the next couple of games would confirm that!
dickwalton1964
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If only it ran to form like that. This stage of the run in will see some of the most bizarre results of the season. Teams vying for the top will suddenly becoming edgy, teams fighting to stay up find an extra energy from somewhere. We will very likely drop points where you least think and likewise will probably win a couple that you’d predict might be a draw or defeat.
LowerSouth
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Back on topic and a bit of fun .
Steve Gilbert
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So you agree that there are still lots of twists and turns and since form goes out the window at this stage, we have a great chance to make the play offs.
Sheik djibouti
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Before the season started. And the first few games of the season did little to change my opinion either. The team then clicked, put together a good (exceptional) run of results before injuries started to take effect and we started losing momentum. Our paper thin squad could not maintain that level of performance (we had Alex Gorrin rushed back to the bench at one point for goodness sake!).
So I was pleasantly surprised that after an initial dodgy couple of games and a fairly indifferent pre-season (OK - nobody should set too much store by pre-season, should they?) that we found ourselves in the mix and pushing the automatics. I hoped it might last, but was never confident, having been enough times round the sun as an Oxford supporter to know how these things often play out. It would take an exceptional effort to maintain our exceptional early form IMHO.
Lo and behold a serious body blow to the club in November. All those from the top to the bottom of the club who'd bought in to the Manning project, who'd dare to hope that "just maybe" we'd be a contender this season, possibly ahead of schedule (certainly ahead of schedule from the majority of chat on here having just scraped survival in League 1 a few short months earlier) were probably seriously concerned about how sustainable it all was - there were after all several structural deficiencies in our squad and the cover behind the first choice 11 was nothing near adequate enough. And so it has proved, along with a number of factors, such as the lack of proper backroom support for an inexperienced manager but talented coach with bags of potential.
So, yeah (pulling it back to the topic), I remain pleasantly surprised that we are where we are with it all in our hands and all to still play for in the playoff shakedown.
Next 6 games are huuuge....and the next two (for all in playoff contention) will tell us an awful lot about our direction of travel. Bomb out badly over the next 6 and Buckingham won't last. In contention to the final day, but missing out, I think he'll get the summer. Top 6 finish, he'll possibly get until xmas, promotion and he'll get the keys to the city
Let's hope the club back him (not just with finds for players) if he warrants that investment.
I am genuinely looking forward to it!
Sheik djibouti
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Carlisle seeming to find some form from somewhere, meaning that Stevenage scraped a very spawny draw on Saturday, could help us out too. If they can maintain it whilst they scrap for their lives and do us a favour against Lincoln and Blackpool, it would be very much appreciated!
ZeroTheHero
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While hoping I am wrong...
Our two recent victories have been against Cheltenham and Port Vale, one of which is in the bottom 4 and the other of which hadn't won in this calendar year at the time we played them. Other recent games include draws against mid-table teams (Wycombe and Northampton) and a loss against another (Orient) and a couple of defeats against teams above us (Portsmouth and Bolton). So let's not pretend we have somehow suddenly come into a particularly rich vein of form. In my simplistic view, those results confirm that we are a mid-table team. On that basis the games to come (and what I expect to get out of them) are Shrewsbury (draw), Fleetwood (win), Burton (win), Peterborough (lose), Lincoln (draw - maybe a bit optimistic given their current form!), Stevenage (draw - maybe a bit pessimistic given their current form!), Exeter (draw). That's 10 points, which would take us to 73, unlikely to be enough (although 73 and 74 point have been enough a couple of times within the last five or six years).
We'll get all excited after the next three matches, and then frustratingly draw the last few to subside to a finish just outside the playoffs. Based on current form and points already won, you'd have to bet on it being the current top five plus Lincoln.
Our two recent victories have been against Cheltenham and Port Vale, one of which is in the bottom 4 and the other of which hadn't won in this calendar year at the time we played them. Other recent games include draws against mid-table teams (Wycombe and Northampton) and a loss against another (Orient) and a couple of defeats against teams above us (Portsmouth and Bolton). So let's not pretend we have somehow suddenly come into a particularly rich vein of form. In my simplistic view, those results confirm that we are a mid-table team. On that basis the games to come (and what I expect to get out of them) are Shrewsbury (draw), Fleetwood (win), Burton (win), Peterborough (lose), Lincoln (draw - maybe a bit optimistic given their current form!), Stevenage (draw - maybe a bit pessimistic given their current form!), Exeter (draw). That's 10 points, which would take us to 73, unlikely to be enough (although 73 and 74 point have been enough a couple of times within the last five or six years).
We'll get all excited after the next three matches, and then frustratingly draw the last few to subside to a finish just outside the playoffs. Based on current form and points already won, you'd have to bet on it being the current top five plus Lincoln.
I'm really excited about the remainder of the season, and I think it could go right to the wire.
But as has already been said, this is the time of the season for weird and wonderful results. Teams fighting at both ends of the table can react to the pressure in different ways - some will thrive, some will falter.
And the mid-table sides will be gloriously unpredictable, too - will they be on the beach already, or will the absence of any promotion pressure or relegation fears allow them to throw caution to the wind?
Every round of fixtures will be huge, starting with Friday. It's seems to me to be extremely likely that at least one, possibly two, and maybe all three of Lincoln (H- Orient), Stevenage (H - Bolton) and Blackpool (A - Derby) will drop points, so we've got - for what feels like the umpteenth time this season! - a potentially season-defining game.
In my wildest dreams we win, the other three lose, and we go into Monday's game against Fleetwood still in 6th but with a four-point cushion.
But as has already been said, this is the time of the season for weird and wonderful results. Teams fighting at both ends of the table can react to the pressure in different ways - some will thrive, some will falter.
And the mid-table sides will be gloriously unpredictable, too - will they be on the beach already, or will the absence of any promotion pressure or relegation fears allow them to throw caution to the wind?
Every round of fixtures will be huge, starting with Friday. It's seems to me to be extremely likely that at least one, possibly two, and maybe all three of Lincoln (H- Orient), Stevenage (H - Bolton) and Blackpool (A - Derby) will drop points, so we've got - for what feels like the umpteenth time this season! - a potentially season-defining game.
In my wildest dreams we win, the other three lose, and we go into Monday's game against Fleetwood still in 6th but with a four-point cushion.
SirAndyOfCrosby
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What is abundantly clear is that, even at this late stage, you can both win an unlikely play-off spot - or lose a probable one.
2020/21
- 56 points after 39 games
️
- Finished 6th on 74 points
️
2021/22
- 69 points after 39 games️
- Finished 8th on 76 points️
2023/24
- 63 points after 39 games
️
- Finished ? on ? points️
So we're currently 7 points better off than we were in 2020/21 - when we achieved a Top 6 finish. But we're 6 points worse off than we were in 2021/22 - when we finished 8th.
There is massive juxtaposition between those two seasons - a 13 point difference at this stage, and yet the weaker season (at this point) resulted in play-offs and the stronger did not, ultimately because of what was achieved in those final 7 games (18 points vs 7 points).
This season feels very much equidistant between the two - and so a reasonable (if unspectacular) 13 or 14 points should do it.
2020/21
- 56 points after 39 games
️- Finished 6th on 74 points
️2021/22
- 69 points after 39 games
️- Finished 8th on 76 points
️2023/24
- 63 points after 39 games
️- Finished ? on ? points
️So we're currently 7 points better off than we were in 2020/21 - when we achieved a Top 6 finish. But we're 6 points worse off than we were in 2021/22 - when we finished 8th.
There is massive juxtaposition between those two seasons - a 13 point difference at this stage, and yet the weaker season (at this point) resulted in play-offs and the stronger did not, ultimately because of what was achieved in those final 7 games (18 points vs 7 points).
This season feels very much equidistant between the two - and so a reasonable (if unspectacular) 13 or 14 points should do it.
Eric Blair
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Really good summary @Sheik djibouti . It's been a weird season. I still have hope. IN FOOTBALL, ANYTHING IS POSSIBLEBefore the season started. And the first few games of the season did little to change my opinion either. The team then clicked, put together a good (exceptional) run of results before injuries started to take effect and we started losing momentum. Our paper thin squad could not maintain that level of performance (we had Alex Gorrin rushed back to the bench at one point for goodness sake!).
So I was pleasantly surprised that after an initial dodgy couple of games and a fairly indifferent pre-season (OK - nobody should set too much store by pre-season, should they?) that we found ourselves in the mix and pushing the automatics. I hoped it might last, but was never confident, having been enough times round the sun as an Oxford supporter to know how these things often play out. It would take an exceptional effort to maintain our exceptional early form IMHO.
Lo and behold a serious body blow to the club in November. All those from the top to the bottom of the club who'd bought in to the Manning project, who'd dare to hope that "just maybe" we'd be a contender this season, possibly ahead of schedule (certainly ahead of schedule from the majority of chat on here having just scraped survival in League 1 a few short months earlier) were probably seriously concerned about how sustainable it all was - there were after all several structural deficiencies in our squad and the cover behind the first choice 11 was nothing near adequate enough. And so it has proved, along with a number of factors, such as the lack of proper backroom support for an inexperienced manager but talented coach with bags of potential.
So, yeah (pulling it back to the topic), I remain pleasantly surprised that we are where we are with it all in our hands and all to still play for in the playoff shakedown.
Next 6 games are huuuge....and the next two (for all in playoff contention) will tell us an awful lot about our direction of travel. Bomb out badly over the next 6 and Buckingham won't last. In contention to the final day, but missing out, I think he'll get the summer. Top 6 finish, he'll possibly get until xmas, promotion and he'll get the keys to the city
Let's hope the club back him (not just with finds for players) if he warrants that investment.
I am genuinely looking forward to it!
Steve Gilbert
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4 wins and 2 draws should be enough IMO.What is abundantly clear is that, even at this late stage, you can both win an unlikely play-off spot - or lose a probable one.
2020/21
- 56 points after 39 games
- Finished 6th on 74 points
2021/22
- 69 points after 39 games
- Finished 8th on 76 points
2023/24
- 63 points after 39 games
- Finished ? on ? points
So we're currently 7 points better off than we were in 2020/21 - when we achieved a Top 6 finish. But we're 6 points worse off than we were in 2021/22 - when we finished 8th.
There is massive juxtaposition between those two seasons - a 13 point difference at this stage, and yet the weaker season (at this point) resulted in play-offs and the stronger did not, ultimately because of what was achieved in those final 7 games (18 points vs 7 points).
This season feels very much equidistant between the two - and so a reasonable (if unspectacular) 13 or 14 points should do it.
TailsWeWin
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At least it all lends the end of season some real interest.
Even if the thought of playing Bolton twice in the semi final scares the sh*t out of me.
Even if the thought of playing Bolton twice in the semi final scares the sh*t out of me.
Mojofilter
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Oh is that all...
dickwalton1964
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We have a chance, yes, but I wouldn't say a great chance. Quite simply, I don't trust the players and I don't trust Des. Nothing personal, nothing hateful, just an opinion on what I have witnessed to date. Can Des deliver when he really has to? I really hope he can, I'm just unconvinced he will. Does that view make me some sort of stand alone lunatic with this wildly, way out perspective of Des and the current Oxford United? So be it if it does.
holdsteady
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I don't think its your views that make you stand out, considering how the season has gone I should imagine they are shared by a decent number of people, its just that you keep repeating it.
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