Where will the goals come from?

#1
So since everyone is going about getting a 20 goal striker (very far and few between) I thought i'd break down where I think the goals will come from this season?
I have looked at how many goals our players have scored for past clubs and used that as a rough guide.

Defenders:
Garbett - 5
Nelson - 3
Dickie - 3
Mousinho - 1
Raglan - 1
Norman - 0
McMahon - 1
Carroll - 0
Long - 0

Midfielders:
Ruffles - 3
Brannigan - 2
Browne - 7
Hall - 10
Caruthers - 4
Napa - 0
Baptiste - 0

Forwards:
Henry - 10
Obika - 12
Mackie - 8
Whyte - 10
James - 0

That gives us a total of 80 goals. Wigan scored 89 goals and won the league. Blackburn went up automatically scoring 82 goals. Play off teams scored 60, 73, 65 and 58.

I think our squad does have plenty of goals in it. Especially when you add in Garbett's free kicks who could score a fair few of them and the odd OG, I'm not too worried about who is getting the goals.

I'd much rather have goals spread across the whole team rather than have to rely on just one man to get them all.
 

ZeroTheHero

Active member
#2
Well, you've extrapolated some slightly optimistic figures IMO - how on earth are we to guess how many goals Browne (who has played virtually no senior football at all) or Whyte (never played in England at any level at all) will score? Mackie has scored 6 in his last 57 games, spread over 3 seasons, so 8 in 46 is a bit of a stretch.

However, your point is still valid to a large degree. But we know that Obika is very likely to break down during the season, and even if he doesn't (and starts the season in the goal scoring form he has hit in pre-season) all strikers go through barren patches. So while I agree that you might not need a 20 goal a season striker, you certainly need at least one other who can score at least as many as your Obika figure above and probably 2 - or one injury and you are down to just one central striker. An uncomfortable place to be.

So yes, goals all over the pitch is a good thing (and much harder to defend against) but that doesn't take the pressure of the next few days as far as recruitment is concerned.
 
#3
Strange choice to create an entirely imaginary set of data and then compare it to actual historical data. Nelson could end up with 10, Obika could get 5, Hall could be out injured all season. Not to mention we still have more signings to come.
 
#4
Well, you've extrapolated some slightly optimistic figures IMO - how on earth are we to guess how many goals Browne (who has played virtually no senior football at all) or Whyte (never played in England at any level at all) will score? Mackie has scored 6 in his last 57 games, spread over 3 seasons, so 8 in 46 is a bit of a stretch.

However, your point is still valid to a large degree. But we know that Obika is very likely to break down during the season, and even if he doesn't (and starts the season in the goal scoring form he has hit in pre-season) all strikers go through barren patches. So while I agree that you might not need a 20 goal a season striker, you certainly need at least one other who can score at least as many as your Obika figure above and probably 2 - or one injury and you are down to just one central striker. An uncomfortable place to be.

So yes, goals all over the pitch is a good thing (and much harder to defend against) but that doesn't take the pressure of the next few days as far as recruitment is concerned.
Mackie's goals have come at championship or above so you would think he would score at this level. Obika and Hall score 1 in 4 so IF fit then i think 12 and 10 is fair. Whyte scored 21 goals last season, no reason why he wouldn't get half that in league 1. Browne I think will be our right footed free kick taker so will get a few that way. Like wise with Garbs. Henry is more than capable of getting 10 goals when played through the middle.
Yes it is all guess work right now and we will be bringing other players in before the window shuts but it was merely pointing out that IMO we have plenty of goals in us all over the pitch.

People are expecting Beeks to break down sooner or later but even Robinson has pointed out that he hasn't missed a minute of training so far in pre season. Last season when KR came in he barely completed more than 1 session.
 

McXal

Junior Member
#5
To be fair - people expecting Obika to succumb to injury at some stage this season isn’t negative, and I don’t think most are saying it to criticise the man himself.

It is, however, an entirely reasonable assertion to make based on his career to date - particularly the last three years where both Swindon and Oxford have struggled to keep him on the pitch regularly.

It’s great that he’s looking fitter and stronger than ever. I’m sure Kieron Dyer looked fit and strong during some pre-seasons too. But history suggests that Obika’s body may struggle with the rigours of playing every game in the fixture heavy schedule clubs at our level have. As a club I’m quite sure we will take steps to mitigate that - both in terms of managing his fitness and bringing in adequate resource to cover him. But to expect him to play week in week out when 3-5 years of history suggest otherwise would, in my view, be unwise
 

Gary Baldi

Well-known member
#8
To be fair to Mackie, he was playing as a winger at QPR for a lot of the time. It does depend on where KR will play him this season
 

beyondthefourth

Active member
2018-19 shirt sponsor for Jamie Hanson
#10
Garbutt getting 5 surprises me. McMahon is more.pikely to be on set pieces I'd have thought. Though Kane got 3 in under 20 games (and one on his debut for Hull), so it's possible.

Like someone else said, it's all a bit abitrary assigning anticipated goals totals to players at this stage. Could understand a percentage system perhaps, goal threat likelihood.
 

Millman

Junior Member
#11
I think Henry if played regularly in a similar position to last season will score more than Obika. I worry about Hall's fitness I reckon we will be lucky for him to last a full season so maybe his goal tally is overrated. Likewise I am not sure just how much Mackie will play so again his total maybe optimistic. On the whole I think these figures are a bit on the high side.

Currently with the lack of out an out strikers we have I wonder just how versatile we will be. After a month or so teams learn who the danger man is and tend to mark then out of the game. At this point you need the ability to vary things a bit in certain games or during a game to get the result. At the moment I don't think we have the firepower up front to do that. I can see us struggling by Jan unless we add another couple of players.

I still think we need 2 more strikers, one of which can be a young talent to break into the team the other a more recognized striker (posibily a big man to hold up the ball). I also think we may need a decent holding midfielder for games where we are on the back foot. So to me the next signings are the key.
 

The Hawk

Active member
#14
The definition of optimism

You’ve got Obika, Henry, hall and Mackie all improving on gpg data in their careers

If each of them Play every game (which they won’t)...

Obika 10.6
Henry 7.3
Mackie 6.5
Hall 7.7

As for Whyte. Well, if he notched that many he’ll be the best player to come across the Irish Sea since George Best.

That Irish league is a joke. How many did Hoban score?
 

Marked Ox

Well-known member
#15
The definition of optimism

You’ve got Obika, Henry, hall and Mackie all improving on gpg data in their careers

If each of them Play every game (which they won’t)...

Obika 10.6
Henry 7.3
Mackie 6.5
Hall 7.7

As for Whyte. Well, if he notched that many he’ll be the best player to come across the Irish Sea since George Best.

That Irish league is a joke. How many did Hoban score?
Whyte and Hoban didn't play in the same league. Whyte played in Northern Ireland and Hoobs played in the Republic of Ireland.
 
#16
Whyte and Hoban didn't play in the same league. Whyte played in Northern Ireland and Hoobs played in the Republic of Ireland.
To be fair, all you've done here is point out that Hoban played in a better division than Whyte. Republic league is generally slightly above the standard of Northern.

As for the original post, I think there is more like 50-55 league goals in the current squad. We only scored a few over 80 league goals in the season we were promoted from L2, and look at the players we had and who they were going up against. All for a bit of optimism but 80 goals just is not going to happen.
 

Salaghaf

Active member
2018-19 shirt sponsor for Jamie Hanson
#17
Dickie will get 6 or 7 this season. He looked the most likely to score at set pieces towards the end of last season.
Agree that most of the other players figures are too high.
 

Marked Ox

Well-known member
#18
To be fair, all you've done here is point out that Hoban played in a better division than Whyte. Republic league is generally slightly above the standard of Northern.

As for the original post, I think there is more like 50-55 league goals in the current squad. We only scored a few over 80 league goals in the season we were promoted from L2, and look at the players we had and who they were going up against. All for a bit of optimism but 80 goals just is not going to happen.
My post was just pointing out they didn't play in the same league, not about the relative merits of them.
 
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