EFL The Relegation Thread

[Toe knee]

Who uses Dickon?

Strappa??

 

[NorthWestOx]

I thought I'd have a look at how relegated teams fared in Lge 1, the following season:

2019-20 Championship (Pos. in Lge 1 following season):
22 Charlton Athletic (7th)
23 Wigan Athletic (20th)
24 Hull City (1st)

2020-21 Championship:
22 Wycombe Wanderers (6th)
23 Rotherham United (2nd)
24 Sheffield Wednesday (4th)

2021-22 Championship:
22 Peterborough United (6th)
23 Derby County (7th)
24 Barnsley (4th)

2022-23 Championship:
22 Reading (17th)
23 Blackpool (8th)
24 Wigan Athletic (12)

2023-24 Championship:
22 Birmingham City (1st)
23 Huddersfield Town (10th)
24 Rotherham United (13th)

2024-25 Championship:
22 Luton Town (7th*)
23 Plymouth Argyle (8th*)
24 Cardiff City (2nd)
* 1 game to go.

Current history suggests that unless a relegated team is an absolute basket case when relegated (Wigan and Reading!), then the following season should be quite competitive.
Good Luck Leicester and Wednesday!

 

[Foley]

I thought I'd have a look at how relegated teams fared in Lge 1, the following season:

2019-20 Championship (Pos. in Lge 1 following season):
22 Charlton Athletic (7th)
23 Wigan Athletic (20th)
24 Hull City (1st)

2020-21 Championship:
22 Wycombe Wanderers (6th)
23 Rotherham United (2nd)
24 Sheffield Wednesday (4th)

2021-22 Championship:
22 Peterborough United (6th)
23 Derby County (7th)
24 Barnsley (4th)

2022-23 Championship:
22 Reading (17th)
23 Blackpool (8th)
24 Wigan Athletic (12)

2023-24 Championship:
22 Birmingham City (1st)
23 Huddersfield Town (10th)
24 Rotherham United (13th)

2024-25 Championship:
22 Luton Town (7th*)
23 Plymouth Argyle (8th*)
24 Cardiff City (2nd)
* 1 game to go.

Current history suggests that unless a relegated team is an absolute basket case when relegated (Wigan and Reading!), then the following season should be quite competitive.
Good Luck Leicester and Wednesday!

So of 18 teams:

4 have gone up automatically (22%)
4 to 5 will have been in the play offs (22%)
14 will have finished in the Top 10 (78%)
None have been relegated.

As you suggest only 'basket cases" generally don't finish in the top 10 and of the non basket cases, 50% get at least in the play offs

 

[holdsteady]

Has a team ever gone down from the third tier following on from being relegated from the 2nd the season before? Tried googling that and it didn't come up with anything and can't remember it ever happening.

 

[OUFCwaffle]

Has a team ever gone down from the third tier following on from being relegated from the 2nd the season before? Tried googling that and it didn't come up with anything and can't remember it ever happening.

Pompey?

 

[RgYellows]

Has a team ever gone down from the third tier following on from being relegated from the 2nd the season before? Tried googling that and it didn't come up with anything and can't remember it ever happening.

Southend 97-98
Luton 07-08
Portsmouth 12-13
Yeovil 14-15
Bolton 19-20

 

[holdsteady]

Pompey?

Had forgotten that, obviously should have remembered given the beating we gave them as a welcome. They definitely fall into the clubs in a mess category back then, they were close to going out of business.

 

[holdsteady]

Luton 07-08
Portsmouth 12-13
Bolton 19-20

Bit more than I thought then, but from memory these were all clubs in a right mess.

That should be enough to send the people on here prone to meltdowns into one though.

 

[RgYellows]

Bit more than I thought then, but from memory these were all clubs in a right mess.

That should be enough to send the people on here prone to meltdowns into one though.

Especially as I already thought of two more

 

[unification]

Southend 97-98
Luton 07-08
Portsmouth 12-13
Yeovil 14-15
Bolton 19-20

We were mighty close ourselves.

1998-99 Second tier (23rd)
1999-00 Third tier (20th)
2000-01 Third tier (24th)
2001-02 Fourth tier (21st)

In fact, staying up by the skin of our teeth in 1999-00 essentially meant the that we prevented the final season at The Manor overseeing our relegation to the Conference. If we had gone down in 2000, the 2000-01 vintage was so bad they would have been relegated from the EFL before 2006.

 

[NorthWestOx]

Southend 97-98 - TAKEN ON A JOURNEY BY THEIR 'OWNERS'
Luton 07-08 - IN ADMINISTRATION
Portsmouth 12-13 - IN ADMINISTRATION
Yeovil 14-15 - DID WELL TO GET TO LGE1 REALLY
Bolton 19-20 - IN ADMINISTRATION

 

[holdsteady]

Especially as I already thought of two more

We are pretty much nailed on to go down again then

 

[holdsteady]

We were mighty close ourselves.

1998-99 Second tier (23rd)
1999-00 Third tier (20th)
2000-01 Third tier (24th)
2001-02 Fourth tier (21st)

In fact, staying up by the skin of our teeth in 1999-00 essentially meant the that we prevented the final season at The Manor overseeing our relegation to the Conference. If we had gone down in 2000, the 2000-01 vintage was so bad they would have been relegated from the EFL before 2006.

We were on a journey.

 

[Orkney Islands Yellow]

So of 18 teams:

4 have gone up automatically (22%)
4 to 5 will have been in the play offs (22%)
14 will have finished in the Top 10 (78%)
None have been relegated.

As you suggest only 'basket cases" generally don't finish in the top 10 and of the non basket cases, 50% get at least in the play offs

Interesting, let's hope it's the playoffs at least for us too.

Can Bloomfield pick the players up? He couldn't at Luton earlier this season.

 

[Kernow Yellow]

Especially as I already thought of two more

Bristol City and Wolves - both early 80s

 

[NorthWestOx]

Bristol City and Wolves - both early 80s

<Checking Bristol City and Wolves financial troubles>...

 

[NorthWestOx]

Bristol City and Wolves - both early 80s

In 1980, the City team went back to the Second Division in the first of three relegations, their debt mounted and their financial losses increased, with two successive relegations following. Thus, in 1982, they fell into the Fourth Division, and were declared bankrupt.

The multi-million pound rebuilding of the Molineux Street Stand in 1979 was the catalyst for the club's near-financial ruin during the next decade. Plunging match attendances in the early 1980s,<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolverhampton_Wanderers_F.C.#cite_note-27"><span>[</span>27<span>]</span></a> at least partly due to recession in both the national and local economies, and consequent difficulties in repaying the loans taken out to fund the new John Ireland Stand, led the club to receivership and relegation in 1982.

 

[OUFCGav]

I think it is true that most supporters of relegated clubs think they will be very much near the top of the league below the next year.

That is wrong much more often than not - the relegated teams of one division are maximum mid-table standard of the one beneath in many, many cases.

Relegated Championship Teams → Next Season League One Finish​

Championship Season	Relegated Team	Next Season (League One)	Final Position
2014/15	Wigan Athletic	2015/16	1st (Promoted)
2014/15	Millwall	2015/16	4th (Playoffs)
2014/15	Blackpool	2015/16	22nd (Relegated)
2015/16	Charlton Athletic	2016/17	4th (Playoffs)
2015/16	MK Dons	2016/17	16th
2015/16	Bolton Wanderers	2016/17	2nd (Promoted)
2016/17	Blackburn Rovers	2017/18	2nd (Promoted)
2016/17	Wigan Athletic	2017/18	1st (Promoted)
2016/17	Rotherham United	2017/18	4th (Promoted via playoffs)
2017/18	Barnsley	2018/19	2nd (Promoted)
2017/18	Burton Albion	2018/19	9th
2017/18	Sunderland	2018/19	5th (Playoffs)
2018/19	Rotherham United	2019/20	1st (Promoted)
2018/19	Bolton Wanderers	2019/20	23rd (Relegated)
2018/19	Ipswich Town	2019/20	11th
2019/20	Charlton Athletic	2020/21	7th
2019/20	Wigan Athletic	2020/21	20th
2019/20	Hull City	2020/21	1st (Promoted)
2020/21	Wycombe Wanderers	2021/22	6th (Playoff final)
2020/21	Rotherham United	2021/22	2nd (Promoted)
2020/21	Sheffield Wednesday	2021/22	4th (Playoffs)
2021/22	Peterborough United	2022/23	6th (Playoffs)
2021/22	Derby County	2022/23	7th
2021/22	Barnsley	2022/23	4th (Playoff final)
2022/23	Reading	2023/24	17th
2022/23	Blackpool	2023/24	8th
2022/23	Wigan Athletic	2023/24	12th
2023/24	Birmingham City	2024/25	1st (Promoted)
2023/24	Huddersfield Town	2024/25	10th
2023/24	Rotherham United	2024/25	20th

---

Key Takeaways​

• Immediate promotion rate is high
  12 of 30 teams (40%) were promoted straight back (top 2 or playoffs).
• Top-half finishes are common
  ~60% finished in the top 6 or playoffs, showing a strong bounce-back trend.
• But failure isn’t rare
  • 3 teams (10%) were relegated again (Blackpool, Bolton, Wigan)
  • Several others finished mid-table or worse.
• Rotherham & Wigan pattern
  These clubs appear multiple times—highlighting “yo-yo” instability between divisions.

 

[NorthWestOx]

Blackpool were under Oyston's control when they went down twice.

As long as Erick remains committed, we should be OK.

 

[chuckbert]

He hasn't even started yet

 

[Kernow Yellow]

Blackpool were under Oyston's control when they went down twice.

As long as Erick remains committed, we should be OK.

Yep, luckily for Us there's no historical precedent of OUFC being relegated from this league with a long-planned stadium on the horizon which hasn't actually been built yet and mounting debts...

 

[Foley]

Yep, luckily for Us there's no historical precedent of OUFC being relegated from this league with a long-planned stadium on the horizon which hasn't actually been built yet and mounting debts...

Mmm.
Not sure it is remotely comparable.
Thohir has invested heavily in the Academy, thd back room staff, the team and for a gigh quality stadium.
About as far away from Kassam as couod ge possible ( assuming you were comparing the two eras?)

 

[Kernow Yellow]

Mmm.
Not sure it is remotely comparable.
Thohir has invested heavily in the Academy, thd back room staff, the team and for a gigh quality stadium.
About as far away from Kassam as couod ge possible ( assuming you were comparing the two eras?)

I thought Kassam took over the following season, so was talking more about Robin Herd et al, but in hindsight Firoz might already have been in place for the Championship relegation, just.

Anyway, I wasn't being entirely serious, just pointing out the stadium parallels. When we started building our current ground no-one thought we'd be down in Div 4 by the time it opened. Let's hope history doesn't repeat.

 

[Marked Ox]

Southend 97-98
Luton 07-08
Portsmouth 12-13
Yeovil 14-15
Bolton 19-20

Is that when Southend got their personal parking spot at the High Court and HMRC put in a bespoke 'Southend United' phoneline to speed the process up?

 

[Northstandboy]

Can you give some examples?

Not everyone uses X, Facebook etc...

 

[Orkney Islands Yellow]

 

[MJB]

 

[NorthWestOx]

Your first mistake was not blocking the fail and their 'reporters'.

 

[Ewes]

Mmm.
Not sure it is remotely comparable.
Thohir has invested heavily in the Academy, thd back room staff, the team and for a gigh quality stadium.
About as far away from Kassam as couod ge possible ( assuming you were comparing the two eras?)

Are you training to be a ventriloquist?

 

[maidenheadox]

Maybe it's because I'm old, but I guess I see this relegation as one of those things that happens from time to time, rather than a big failure, heads must roll etc. etc.

I also don't particularly blame any of the three managers we've had over the past couple of seasons as I don't think they've had the players to work with. Des eventually ran out of ideas, same with Rowatt.

When we were promoted I remember thinking that Cam, Long, Brown, Tyler, Sparky etc. should all be struggling to get into the team if we're to be competitive in the Championship. This clearly hasn't been the case, and I think it's fair to say that our recruitment hasn't gone as well as we'd have liked. It seems like we went for quantity over quality, in the hope of unearthing a couple of gems. Maybe we should have signed fewer and dropped 4-5 million each on a couple of players. There's a lot of risk in that strategy as well though. Ultimately a lot of disappointments (El Miz, Sibley. Dembele, Phillips, Kioso) players that haven't done that much (Prelec, Vaulks) and disappointing loan signings (Scarlett, Davies). Many others as well.

For all the talk of strikers and wingers, I think our biggest problem has been playing and keeping the ball. Our centre halfs are not good with the ball at their feet and our midfield surrenders possession far too easily. These are the areas where we really needed to upgrade and have struggled to recruit effectively. 30% possession every game is going to catch up with you in the end. Again, not a massive criticism. It's hard to recruit when you're perceived as being the smallest club in the division and operating under FFP. You are going to have to gamble. We were nearly relegated the season before we went up, and were starting from a long way back.

Onto next season and I hope Bloomfield sticks around. He seems invested and passionate about the project, and he at least got us back to a point where the season was interesting again. Also without BDK for most of his time who is the best player we have. Rowatt always struck me as a bit mercenary which can have its own advantages, but is not what I want as a fan. It looks like the teams coming down with us have all sorts of problems so no reason why we can't be in the mix.

Personally I'm looking forward to seeing us create a few more chances and winning a few more games. Also looking forward to games against Reading and Wycombe. I've loved being in the Championship and want to get back as soon as possible, but it has been really tough to watch for a lot of the time!