The Karl Robinson years at OUFC are difficult to analyse.

[TailsWeWin]

After the day of the Taylor & Thorne signings, I dare say that a lot of us were dreaming of the Top Six. But a lot of that confidence and enthusiasm has certainly drained away over the past month.

Yes, we completely dominated and should have thumped Blackpool; the Rovers game was pretty even, and on another day we could have gotten something there.
But, from my perspective, we were very much second best against both Burton & Fleetwood, and were deservedly beaten by both of them.

If I was trying to look for something to mitigate the doom and gloom, I might point out that we've so far played the teams that lie 2nd, 4th, 6th, 8th, 9th, 10th & 13th in the table. It's been a tough start to the season and we probably haven't played any of the likely relegation candidates yet.
Three of our next four games are against teams that have struggled out the gate, so we'll have a much better idea of where we really stand when we reach the end of September.

However - if we've got any ambitions to even threaten the Top Six this season, then it goes without saying that we've got to be picking up more points against the division's good teams as well.

Meanwhile, only Southend and (for obvious reasons) Bolton have a worse defensive record than us so far - we're shipping on average more than two goals a game! Did we spend too much time and effort over the summer piecing together a deep and capable attack, but not enough time and effort piecing together a good League One-caliber rearguard?

Yes

 

[RyanioBirdio]

I have to say that I actually feel much better about this season than I did last. Not because I expect more good results than last time, or because I think we’ve got a much better squad (I don’t think we’ve replaced the likes of Nelson, Whyte or Browne with players as good as they were, but I also don’t think we had a striker as good as Taylor or a centre midfielder as good as Brannagan has seemingly become in the last few months either, so it’s swings and roundabouts).

It’s because there are now no excuses. Our owners and our manager have been here for 18 months, had more than 60 league games at the helm and three full transfer windows to sort the squad out. The club has also had half a dozen winding up petitions to learn from and finally got the training ground to a point where it isn’t a building site, which should have given us a much more peaceful pre-season with far better preparation environments. On the face of it, this season is geared up to be better than last in an awful lot of ways. We’ve had nothing thrown at us apart from reassuring statements and strong messaging affirming how everything is amazing and rosy, both from the club and their cheerleaders, and as such expectations are high. Why not? Let’s have a damn good go, I say. Even if we don’t finish top six, we should be in the top half of the table for virtually the entire season, you’d expect. There’s certainly no way a repeat of last season’s horrific start could be justified, nor another season where most of it is spent in and around the drop zone. The board have also given the manager a new three year contract, so seemingly we now know exactly where we are. Whatever anyone thinks of this, that or the other on any of the matters mentioned above, the club seems to be saying that it knows exactly what it wants, where it thinks it’s going and how it believes it’s going to get there. And the people involved have had enough time to not only be able, but probably to be expected, to know those things and start getting them right.

So I say to those concerned: crack on. Get on with it and show everybody how good you are, and how knowledgable you are. Prove that you know better than anybody else. Because if you do, it’s happy days for anybody who spends time, money and huge chunks of their own sanity following this football club. It’ll mean we’ve had some form of success, which is what we all hope for and spend our time and money hoping to see firsthand. But if you DON’T succeed, and we don’t move forward at all... well, the proof will be in the pudding, won’t it? And if that happens there’s nothing anyone in the stands can do about that, and therefore none of us should be that worried, because it’s completely on the people at the top. They’ve embarked on quite the campaign of PR leading up to this season, and they’ve set expectations high with their statements about a lot of the players they ended up bringing in, so it’s on them to deliver something that is a marked step forward on last time. There’s absolutely no justification for not at least improving on last term, when we finished 12th. That’s the minimum we can reasonably expect, because otherwise it’s a failure. Better facilities, more stability, another year of learning and experience, a load of players we were assured are so good we just had to keep waiting for them as we would never have got them otherwise... there’s no way we can finish lower than 12th, is there?

We’re in a position where it seems there’s at least a fairly decent squad on paper, there’s at least a fairly decent infrastructure and environment for the playing staff to exist within, and there’s been at least a fairly decent amount of money spent on sorting all of that out. So if it goes wrong? Well, it should be pretty fixable, shouldn’t it? There’s nothing wrong with the setup anymore if people are being honest and straight up - we can’t have any excuses about this or that being wrong behind the scenes, being too thin on the ground here, needing somebody in over there etc. If it doesn’t work it’s because the people charged with making it work haven’t done their job. If that happens then certain people will have to make changes, and if they make changes and everything is as solid as we’ve been assured off the pitch, and the team is as good as we’ve been told it is on paper, then it won’t be an issue finding somebody semi-competent to at least do a half-decent job of it.

Basically, if everything is exactly as we’ve been told, it’s only the manager failing to perform who can make this season a shocker. And if that happens it’s really easy to sort out, because there’s absolutely no doubt that will be the main source of underperformance if it goes wrong. And if he’s as good as a lot of people say he is, it won’t be a problem anyway. Either we’re in for a decent season, or we’re in a position to know exactly how to fix it if it all goes tits up. We’ve got what we’ve been told is a solid plan, and as a result everybody can see where the escape pods are in case it goes wrong.

So what’s to worry about?

 

[yellowbow]

I have to say that I actually feel much better about this season than I did last. Not because I expect more good results than last time, or because I think we’ve got a much better squad (I don’t think we’ve replaced the likes of Nelson, Whyte or Browne with players as good as they were, but I also don’t think we had a striker as good as Taylor or a centre midfielder as good as Brannagan has seemingly become in the last few months either, so it’s swings and roundabouts).

It’s because there are now no excuses. Our owners and our manager have been here for 18 months, had more than 60 league games at the helm and three full transfer windows to sort the squad out. The club has also had half a dozen winding up petitions to learn from and finally got the training ground to a point where it isn’t a building site, which should have given us a much more peaceful pre-season with far better preparation environments. On the face of it, this season is geared up to be better than last in an awful lot of ways. We’ve had nothing thrown at us apart from reassuring statements and strong messaging affirming how everything is amazing and rosy, both from the club and their cheerleaders, and as such expectations are high. Why not? Let’s have a damn good go, I say. Even if we don’t finish top six, we should be in the top half of the table for virtually the entire season, you’d expect. There’s certainly no way a repeat of last season’s horrific start could be justified, nor another season where most of it is spent in and around the drop zone. The board have also given the manager a new three year contract, so seemingly we now know exactly where we are. Whatever anyone thinks of this, that or the other on any of the matters mentioned above, the club seems to be saying that it knows exactly what it wants, where it thinks it’s going and how it believes it’s going to get there. And the people involved have had enough time to not only be able, but probably to be expected, to know those things and start getting them right.

So I say to those concerned: crack on. Get on with it and show everybody how good you are, and how knowledgable you are. Prove that you know better than anybody else. Because if you do, it’s happy days for anybody who spends time, money and huge chunks of their own sanity following this football club. It’ll mean we’ve had some form of success, which is what we all hope for and spend our time and money hoping to see firsthand. But if you DON’T succeed, and we don’t move forward at all... well, the proof will be in the pudding, won’t it? And if that happens there’s nothing anyone in the stands can do about that, and therefore none of us should be that worried, because it’s completely on the people at the top. They’ve embarked on quite the campaign of PR leading up to this season, and they’ve set expectations high with their statements about a lot of the players they ended up bringing in, so it’s on them to deliver something that is a marked step forward on last time. There’s absolutely no justification for not at least improving on last term, when we finished 12th. That’s the minimum we can reasonably expect, because otherwise it’s a failure. Better facilities, more stability, another year of learning and experience, a load of players we were assured are so good we just had to keep waiting for them as we would never have got them otherwise... there’s no way we can finish lower than 12th, is there?

We’re in a position where it seems there’s at least a fairly decent squad on paper, there’s at least a fairly decent infrastructure and environment for the playing staff to exist within, and there’s been at least a fairly decent amount of money spent on sorting all of that out. So if it goes wrong? Well, it should be pretty fixable, shouldn’t it? There’s nothing wrong with the setup anymore if people are being honest and straight up - we can’t have any excuses about this or that being wrong behind the scenes, being too thin on the ground here, needing somebody in over there etc. If it doesn’t work it’s because the people charged with making it work haven’t done their job. If that happens then certain people will have to make changes, and if they make changes and everything is as solid as we’ve been assured off the pitch, and the team is as good as we’ve been told it is on paper, then it won’t be an issue finding somebody semi-competent to at least do a half-decent job of it.

Basically, if everything is exactly as we’ve been told, it’s only the manager failing to perform who can make this season a shocker. And if that happens it’s really easy to sort out, because there’s absolutely no doubt that will be the main source of underperformance if it goes wrong. And if he’s as good as a lot of people say he is, it won’t be a problem anyway. Either we’re in for a decent season, or we’re in a position to know exactly how to fix it if it all goes tits up. We’ve got what we’ve been told is a solid plan, and as a result everybody can see where the escape pods are in case it goes wrong.

So what’s to worry about?

As has been said before, Robinson has the safest job in football, he’s totally bomb proof. He’s far more involved than a mere first team coach/manager. He’s part of the clubs infrastructure. He’s practically a part of the board in all but name, to me he seems closer to the owners than the MD, or at least on a par. They’ve entrusted him with the task of totally restructuring and developing the football side of the club. Quite simply Robinson HAS to get it right as there’s no alternative.

 

[Manorlounger]

And this is what makes the trepidation of failure so much more acute. Only a few weeks ago we (Mrs Lounger & I) were telling each other how upbeat we were feeling about the season ahead, how much more condident we felt. Now, here we are discussing the eventuality of another season of disappointment with the odd cheer in between.
The information from the boardroom level has been tuned to a much better standard this season with Zak providing a welcome change to the less articulate, but excitable Tiger and the awful management speak from McWilliams. At the outset even KR was managing his interviews in a more realistic manner.
If we are to face another season of mediocre, low mid table or, heaven forbid, relegation battle then, repercussions must happen and responsibility accepted.

 

[yellowbow]

And this is what makes the trepidation of failure so much more acute. Only a few weeks ago we (Mrs Lounger & I) were telling each other how upbeat we were feeling about the season ahead, how much more condident we felt. Now, here we are discussing the eventuality of another season of disappointment with the odd cheer in between.
The information from the boardroom level has been tuned to a much better standard this season with Zak providing a welcome change to the less articulate, but excitable Tiger and the awful management speak from McWilliams. At the outset even KR was managing his interviews in a more realistic manner.
If we are to face another season of mediocre, low mid table or, heaven forbid, relegation battle then, repercussions must happen and responsibility accepted.

I know Robinson is a very self-confident fella but even when things are going wrong his persona oozes self-assured confidence as if he knows he’ll never be held to task for it. I think he will turn it round though - at least I hope he does. Behind all the chatter I do think there is a competent coach there ?

 

[Bigfella72]

TEAM	FROM	TO	GAMES	WON	DRAWN	LOST
Oxford	22 Mar, 2018	Present	79	28	22	29

By my reckoning (near enough without the decimal points) that's a 35% win ratio (28% draws, 37% losses)

Which (of our recent managers who have done more than a few games) is better than Clotet at 33% (close though!), but both Wilder and Appleton are up around the 45% mark and even Darren Patterson is up over 40%.

(table from Soccerbase, other stats from Wiki)

I’d be interested to see stats of other managers in this league right now, Sunderland managers win % can’t be that great as they draw so many.
Also as someone else has stated lots of those games were in a different league although I doubt anyone would argue that Wilder & Appleton were/are very good managers.
How do other ex oxford managers stats stand up? Smithx2, Horton, Kemp ?

 

[Millman]

I am not sure we can say there are no excuses for being successful this season but I would agree there should be far less than last season. There will always be a turn of fate that can make or break a club like us who do not have the larger resources of the bigger clubs.

As for KR I am still not convinced. I think he may be a good coach, but as for a manager I am not sure he is flexible enough. One thing looks almost certain though is that here he is very overstretched adding in everything else he seems to do. Although we have bought a lot of players I am still not sure we have bought that well in a couple of areas. I think the biggest misses this season is Kashi and Nelson. Hopefully like last season KR realizes his problems and puts Mous into Midfield to cover the back four. I still think we should have gone for an experienced center back (as well as Moore) an old head to organize our young players and get them into shape allowing us to bring in Moore more gradually.

Currently its all a little groundhog day. We built the squad way too late, with too many players not fully fit. We then have made way to many changes from a solid team last season and are currently still trying to do the preseason work of shaping the team and getting everyone fit and playing together.
I do think its all fixable I just wonder how long it will take a stuborn man like KR to fix it (it took him until Jan last season). This will be the key to this season sort the conceding of goals and we should be a solid mid table (at least) team.

 

[Peterdev]

Maybe we will be like Barnsley when they were bottom at Christmas and ended up promoted.
I see Portsmouth are also stuck near the bottom.
I agree we have got to see how Agyei and Taylor do. I believe Woodburn will come good too and we have much to be optimistic about this season.
There are some very strong teams up there.
Fleetwood although disappointing was not surprising given we’ve not beaten them in the league before and they’re unbeaten at home for so many games.
Burton will do better and have played at higher level too.
I’m sure we will be up in the top half before too long and not be struggling near the bottom.
Only three places for relegation. I’d be surprised if Bolton start winning any time soon. Southend will probably break their duck against us but they are well and truly in the mire even at this early stage.
I also see Wimbledon finding it tough again

 

[ZeroTheHero]

How do other ex oxford managers stats stand up? Smithx2, Horton, Kemp ?

Just Google 'List of Oxford United Managers' in Wiki if you want to look at them all. He's got a better record than the various caretaker managers (I guess you'd expect that, since they were stuck with a team who'd just got the last bloke fired!), marginally better than Horton, quite a lot better than Kemp (unsurprisingly). But then if you say that managers playing in lower divisions (L2, Conference) should have their records downgraded, you'd also have to say that those in charge when we were in the top two should have their records adjusted upwards?

 

[horseman]

I am not sure we can say there are no excuses for being successful this season but I would agree there should be far less than last season. There will always be a turn of fate that can make or break a club like us who do not have the larger resources of the bigger clubs.

As for KR I am still not convinced. I think he may be a good coach, but as for a manager I am not sure he is flexible enough. One thing looks almost certain though is that here he is very overstretched adding in everything else he seems to do. Although we have bought a lot of players I am still not sure we have bought that well in a couple of areas. I think the biggest misses this season is Kashi and Nelson. Hopefully like last season KR realizes his problems and puts Mous into Midfield to cover the back four. I still think we should have gone for an experienced center back (as well as Moore) an old head to organize our young players and get them into shape allowing us to bring in Moore more gradually.

Currently its all a little groundhog day. We built the squad way too late, with too many players not fully fit. We then have made way to many changes from a solid team last season and are currently still trying to do the preseason work of shaping the team and getting everyone fit and playing together.
I do think its all fixable I just wonder how long it will take a stuborn man like KR to fix it (it took him until Jan last season). This will be the key to this season sort the conceding of goals and we should be a solid mid table (at least) team.

comes back to relying on Loans, i keep saying it build a squad of our players with the odd tweak here or there for 2/3 seasons and have a good go at it.
Stop the nicey nicey of training and giving game time to other clubs players and all this give us a year and we'll help further your career.
i'm still convinced that breaking up the squad every summer has contributed to 2 struggling seasons.

Having a reputation for developing other clubs players is all well and good but where has it got us !

 

[Bigfella72]

Just Google 'List of Oxford United Managers' in Wiki if you want to look at them all. He's got a better record than the various caretaker managers (I guess you'd expect that, since they were stuck with a team who'd just got the last bloke fired!), marginally better than Horton, quite a lot better than Kemp (unsurprisingly). But then if you say that managers playing in lower divisions (L2, Conference) should have their records downgraded, you'd also have to say that those in charge when we were in the top two should have their records adjusted upwards?

More interested in the managers in our league tbh as most of us could guess what certain managers stats are and tbh not sure it’s really a good guide to whether a manager is any good or not as lots of variables to why a season panned our like it did.

 

[AbbeyOx]

comes back to relying on Loans, i keep saying it build a squad of our players with the odd tweak here or there for 2/3 seasons and have a good go at it.
Stop the nicey nicey of training and giving game time to other clubs players and all this give us a year and we'll help further your career.
i'm still convinced that breaking up the squad every summer has contributed to 2 struggling seasons.

Having a reputation for developing other clubs players is all well and good but where has it got us !

have we not done that this season - 3 year contracts to several players.
next season hopefully we’ll have the majority still here (and looking like good players) plus the quality youngsters coming through, so not needing the major rebuild again

 

[Millman]

have we not done that this season - 3 year contracts to several players.
next season hopefully we’ll have the majority still here (and looking like good players) plus the quality youngsters coming through, so not needing the major rebuild again

I agree this for me one one of the positives this year was the reduced reliance on loans. We do have to keep in mind though we are a selling club. The club just to survive has to sell one or two player each year (we should not complain about the selling of White because a look at the books means this is the least we needed to do). The thing is by the end of the season to be at a point where the replacments are almost ready to take over. I think we are going to be closer to this this year than last year.

 

[ZeroTheHero]

More interested in the managers in our league tbh as most of us could guess what certain managers stats are and tbh not sure it’s really a good guide to whether a manager is any good or not as lots of variables to why a season panned our like it did.

I agree to a certain extent (although certainly as useful as the possession percentage and pass completion stats that current day managers are so keen on!) - there will always be variables, even in the same division it *should* be easier to win as Sunderland manager than as the current Bolton manager! But in the absence of any other metric, I guess it's the best we've got if we want to compare the records of managers.

 

[tonyw]

Just Google 'List of Oxford United Managers' in Wiki if you want to look at them all. He's got a better record than the various caretaker managers (I guess you'd expect that, since they were stuck with a team who'd just got the last bloke fired!), marginally better than Horton, quite a lot better than Kemp (unsurprisingly). But then if you say that managers playing in lower divisions (L2, Conference) should have their records downgraded, you'd also have to say that those in charge when we were in the top two should have their records adjusted upwards?

I mean that has to be the case, doesn't it?

Maurice Evans had a win % of 29.3% in his main spell as manager. But that was spent exclusively in the first division playing against teams with vastly greater resources than us.

Darren Patterson had a win % of 40.7% in his main spell as manager. But that was spent exclusively in the conference playing against teams with vastly less resources than us.

Is there anyone who would like to claim that Patto was the more successful/better Oxford manager of the two??!?

 

[holdsteady]

According to Wikipedia (so probably wrong) it’s Robinson’s 500th game as a manager on Saturday, hell of an achievement for a 38 year old. Most of the league games in those 500 have been at league one level, so despite his young age he is very experienced at this level, so much so that you would expect the year and a half he has had here to be enough to build a team, but for whatever reason that doesn’t seem to have happened yet.

We went for a young but very experienced league one manager which you would think to be ideal, but it isn’t working out yet.

 

[uptheus]

I’m still not convinced we have the right playing personnel in terms of depth and shape. And our biggest loss is pace closely followed by width.

 

[Bigfella72]

Slow day so I’ve been looking at all managers in division 1 and their win percentages.
5 or 6 names are at the top for average career, highest career and current team percentage.

1) 57.1% Darren Moore has got off to a very good start at Donny but also was harshly sacked by WBA.
2) 53.3% Danny Crowley who is now at Huddersfield is an obvious one as virtually all his games have been at a lower level in charge of a team fighting for promotion.
3) 52.6% Brian Barry-Murphy of Rochdale is the surprise package as he carries on as he left of last season but has only managed in 19 games so early days.
4) 50.72% Jack Ross again probably no surprise as Sunderland are a big fish in a small pond
5) 50.41% Kenny Jackett (see above) this is actually his best spell as a manager

Micky Mellon (tranmere)appears in top 5 best average and highest career when manager of Fleetwood but again his Tranmere stats are boosted by two promotions

On an average 39% is the middle ground for managers in Div 1 so yes KR falls short at present but he did hit 42.5% at MK so there is hope still.

 

[LondonRoader]

I know Robinson is a very self-confident fella but even when things are going wrong his persona oozes self-assured confidence as if he knows he’ll never be held to task for it. I think he will turn it round though - at least I hope he does. Behind all the chatter I do think there is a competent coach there ?

I'm not so sure on that opening line.

 

[Benox]

It is very disappointing that after some positive performances to start we seem to have started the season in the same manner as last year results wise. I don’t feel as worried as last season, probably for a number of reasons. The way we turned things around last year being one, the reduced threat of relegation after the Bury & Bolton situations and the greater feeling of positivity around the club.

On a positive side, at least we have players like Agyei, Moore, Gorrin & Fosu who will be here next year. So likely less squad disruption & rebuilding that we had last summer. If Taylor & Agyei prove to be successful I think we could have more options than we did last year with just Mackie & Sinclair.

The frustration is that many of them were signed too late (I appreciate deals can take a while but other teams do manage it) and are still not fit enough to make an impact, so it looks like another season of catch up until we finally find a formula that works. Can’t help but feel if we’re to actually have a truly successful season we need to have a squad in place by game 1, not 20% into the season. I don’t recall us having these problems in previous years (perhaps I’m just not recalling them), so I’m not sure why we struggle so much now. Perhaps just a case of us targeting players who have more options where a deal takes longer.

Definitely big games for us against Tranmere & Bolton where we could restore some good feeling with 2 wins. I feel we have a good squad, but we haven’t come across the key dependencies of the squad yet, like last year where Mous in front of the back 4, Garbutt on the wing etc seemed to turning points. Let’s hope it doesn’t take us that long to work out what this squad needs.