SirAndyOfCrosby
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- 6 Apr 2022
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Plenty of discussion during the seasons as to the relative merits of Eastwood vs Stevens (and the odd suggestion that we need someone new), so felt it was worth looking at this area in isolation as to what we do this Summer.
Looking at the stats (yes, I know – not definitive) for last season, it doesn’t make for pleasant reading. As we know, we conceded 59 goals in 46 League games (joint 12th in the table) - too many for a promotion-chasing side. The ‘good’ news it at that our Expected Goals Against (xGA) ended up 6th best in League One.
So, on the face of it, it appears not necessarily to be an issue with conceding opportunities (which have fairly been attributed to factors such as a lack of CDM/replacement for Gorrin or the formations/lack of Full-Backs – and certainly worth acting and improving on), but more that we concede too many of the relatively few chances that we do give up (i.e. it’s Goalkeeping that is the issue).
Looking at the incumbents individually:
Eastwood – 14 League games, 16 goals conceded. 1.14 goals per game.
Stevens – 30 games, 42 conceded. 1.4 goals per game.
Not an awful lot in it, but Eastwood works out as 53 goals conceded over a whole season and Stevens at 64 - vs the actual of 59 in total (1 from Trueman).
Looking at the xGA at an individual level:
Eastwood – 16 goals conceded, xGA is 12.7. So he conceded 3 more goals than you would 'expect', across those 14 games (one 'extra' goal every 4.7 games).
Stevens – 37 goals conceded (these stats don’t include the 5 penalties faced – all scored), against a xGA of just 27.1. Therefore, by the stats alone, Jack conceded TEN more goals than you would have expected this season across 30 League games – so 1 extra goal in every 3 games. This is quite alarming. Only 2 Keepers sit below him in the stats for League One, and both had to face a significantly higher number of shots (so you could argue in their defence that the sheer volume of shots faced meant that they slipped up more than they ‘should’ have).
Putting it bluntly, Stevens record this season (judging by the Opta Stats) is quite simply – didn’t have an unreasonable amount to do, but didn’t do that particularly well (Eastwood stats don’t cover him in glory either).
It’s a difficult situation. Do we think Stevens can recapture his form of 2020/21? If not, we may well struggle to push on next season.
As I see it we have 3 likely options:
- 1. Persevere with Stevens in the hope he recaptures his previous form (which I’m sure is the preferred option for most on here).
- 2. As above, but more reliant on Eastwood (i.e. a bit of chopping and changing, in the hope they push each other on). Quite possibly ends up with Eastwood as No.1.
- 3. New GK in, cashing in on Stevens and having Eastwood as back-up.
Place your bets! I suspect KR hopes for 1, could end up going with 2, but ultimately it may need to be 3 for promotion.
Oh, and for anyone who doubts the quality of these stats I give you Michael Cooper at Plymouth, the man getting all the plaudits and the League One GK of the year.
Plymouth conceded the 5th fewest goals in League One. However, their xGA was 20th. A lack of OGs and Penalties (only 2 given away, 1 of which was scored) has helped here (as these are not included in the stats), but he was still ‘expected’ to concede 3 more goals than he did over the season – and he played every League game.
Looking at the stats (yes, I know – not definitive) for last season, it doesn’t make for pleasant reading. As we know, we conceded 59 goals in 46 League games (joint 12th in the table) - too many for a promotion-chasing side. The ‘good’ news it at that our Expected Goals Against (xGA) ended up 6th best in League One.
So, on the face of it, it appears not necessarily to be an issue with conceding opportunities (which have fairly been attributed to factors such as a lack of CDM/replacement for Gorrin or the formations/lack of Full-Backs – and certainly worth acting and improving on), but more that we concede too many of the relatively few chances that we do give up (i.e. it’s Goalkeeping that is the issue).
Looking at the incumbents individually:
Eastwood – 14 League games, 16 goals conceded. 1.14 goals per game.
Stevens – 30 games, 42 conceded. 1.4 goals per game.
Not an awful lot in it, but Eastwood works out as 53 goals conceded over a whole season and Stevens at 64 - vs the actual of 59 in total (1 from Trueman).
Looking at the xGA at an individual level:
Eastwood – 16 goals conceded, xGA is 12.7. So he conceded 3 more goals than you would 'expect', across those 14 games (one 'extra' goal every 4.7 games).
Stevens – 37 goals conceded (these stats don’t include the 5 penalties faced – all scored), against a xGA of just 27.1. Therefore, by the stats alone, Jack conceded TEN more goals than you would have expected this season across 30 League games – so 1 extra goal in every 3 games. This is quite alarming. Only 2 Keepers sit below him in the stats for League One, and both had to face a significantly higher number of shots (so you could argue in their defence that the sheer volume of shots faced meant that they slipped up more than they ‘should’ have).
Putting it bluntly, Stevens record this season (judging by the Opta Stats) is quite simply – didn’t have an unreasonable amount to do, but didn’t do that particularly well (Eastwood stats don’t cover him in glory either).
It’s a difficult situation. Do we think Stevens can recapture his form of 2020/21? If not, we may well struggle to push on next season.
As I see it we have 3 likely options:
- 1. Persevere with Stevens in the hope he recaptures his previous form (which I’m sure is the preferred option for most on here).
- 2. As above, but more reliant on Eastwood (i.e. a bit of chopping and changing, in the hope they push each other on). Quite possibly ends up with Eastwood as No.1.
- 3. New GK in, cashing in on Stevens and having Eastwood as back-up.
Place your bets! I suspect KR hopes for 1, could end up going with 2, but ultimately it may need to be 3 for promotion.
Oh, and for anyone who doubts the quality of these stats I give you Michael Cooper at Plymouth, the man getting all the plaudits and the League One GK of the year.
Plymouth conceded the 5th fewest goals in League One. However, their xGA was 20th. A lack of OGs and Penalties (only 2 given away, 1 of which was scored) has helped here (as these are not included in the stats), but he was still ‘expected’ to concede 3 more goals than he did over the season – and he played every League game.