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Peterdev

Active member
#1
Looking at the league table this morning looks for far more comfortable reading.
Already Northampton and MK Dons will finish below us and Bury are already relegated.
Games to come on Tuesday Oldham V Southend...And Rochdale v Plymouth
If Rochdale should lose and Plymouth have everything to play for that will leave them only able to catch us on points but with at least a four goal difference to make up in two games.
Next home game up for us against Rochdale, we could well send them down regardless of the result, but seems like a draw will be more than enough.
Looks like we should be guaranteed survival any time soon.
The work for next season begins soon.
There will be players leaving to be sure, and I think also there will be changes in the management structure as Karl Robinson prepares us for the demands of next season.
Will be difficult with the likes of Sunderland, Plymouth, Portsmouth, Bradford and Portsmouth all looking to get back where they feel belong.
A big welcome to Accrington, renewed rivalries with Luton, and a small feeling of regret at not seeing that seeing that small club from down the A420
 

Paul P

Active member
2018-19 shirt sponsor for Jamie Hanson
#2
Looking at the league table this morning looks for far more comfortable reading.
Already Northampton and MK Dons will finish below us and Bury are already relegated.
Games to come on Tuesday Oldham V Southend...And Rochdale v Plymouth
If Rochdale should lose and Plymouth have everything to play for that will leave them only able to catch us on points but with at least a four goal difference to make up in two games.
Next home game up for us against Rochdale, we could well send them down regardless of the result, but seems like a draw will be more than enough.
Looks like we should be guaranteed survival any time soon.
The work for next season begins soon.
There will be players leaving to be sure, and I think also there will be changes in the management structure as Karl Robinson prepares us for the demands of next season.
Will be difficult with the likes of Sunderland, Plymouth, Portsmouth, Bradford and Portsmouth all looking to get back where they feel belong.
A big welcome to Accrington, renewed rivalries with Luton, and a small feeling of regret at not seeing that seeing that small club from down the A420
Looks like it will be especially hard next season, we have to play Portsmouth four times! ;)
 
#4
I think Rochdale will go, people have been on about them being in a false position, that they were in good form and the cup distracted them, but they are still in the relegation positions and there next two games are Plymouth home and us away, I think they will lose both so will be praying to still be in with a chance on the last day. They are a poor team, that FA cup draw at home to spurs made them seem better than they are, you don’t spend most of the season in the bottom four if you are decent, they have.
 

Cass63

Active member
#5
Rochdale s result yesterday was a right kick in the bollox for them, without their main striker on Tuesday and the pressure off us they could be there for the taking.
 

Peterdev

Active member
#7
Not sure whether the pressure could be off us tomorrow night as I think whatever happens we will still be in the mix on Saturday.
I have a feeling eithe Gillingham or Walsall will end up as the last ones to go with Dons, Cobblers and the Shakers
 

yellowbow

Well-known member
2018-19 shirt sponsor for Jamie Hanson
#8
Not sure whether the pressure could be off us tomorrow night as I think whatever happens we will still be in the mix on Saturday.
I have a feeling eithe Gillingham or Walsall will end up as the last ones to go with Dons, Cobblers and the Shakers
Ah Don Cobbler and the Shakers.. I remember them. One hit wonder scouse band from the sixties
 

radicalox

Junior Member
#9
Northampton having a late resurgence helps us. They have Oldham and Walsall to play, can't catch us, but have a slither of a chance of staying up. They could cause trouble for the abovementioned.
 

Peterdev

Active member
#10
I’ve often found in the past a team that has just been relegated has a resurgence as the pressure is off.
I can’t see how Oxford can be relegated now unless we lose both games and the clubs below us all enjoy great results.
We could easily play Rochdale needing to lose 0-5 to go down. If that should happen, we will probably score in the last minute to stay up as we like to see our supporters on a cliff edge
 

Botox

Active member
#11
Also if Plymouth has any chance of reaching the playoffs they really need to beat Rochdale on Tuesday.
Which would massively take the pressure off, we would only need 1 point to be mathematically safe, or as said above lose to dale 5-0 to go down, if we end up on the same points as them.
 
#12
Also if Plymouth has any chance of reaching the playoffs they really need to beat Rochdale on Tuesday.
Which would massively take the pressure off, we would only need 1 point to be mathematically safe, or as said above lose to dale 5-0 to go down, if we end up on the same points as them.
Rochdale only need to beat us 2-0 to improve their goal difference over us, don’t they?
 

Botox

Active member
#13
You could be right, cant get my head around it.

They are on -8 we are on -5 if they lose on Tuesday I'm assuming they will be -9 or more and for them gain a better goal average over us they would need to score a good few goals to put us down ?
 

radicalox

Junior Member
#14
You could be right, cant get my head around it.

They are on -8 we are on -5 if they lose on Tuesday I'm assuming they will be -9 or more and for them gain a better goal average over us they would need to score a good few goals to put us down ?
It is because we are playing them. So every goal they score against us is -1 for our GD and +1 for them. So effectively every goal is worth double to GD.
 
#15
Also if Plymouth has any chance of reaching the playoffs they really need to beat Rochdale on Tuesday.
Which would massively take the pressure off, we would only need 1 point to be mathematically safe, or as said above lose to dale 5-0 to go down, if we end up on the same points as them.
Plymouth were poor at Northampton - very poor from many accounts I have read.

Argyle fans saying that Ryan Taylor was missed up front.

 

MJB

Well-known member
#16
Also if Plymouth has any chance of reaching the playoffs they really need to beat Rochdale on Tuesday.
Which would massively take the pressure off, we would only need 1 point to be mathematically safe, or as said above lose to dale 5-0 to go down, if we end up on the same points as them.
Plymouth were poor at Northampton - very poor from many accounts I have read.

Argyle fans saying that Ryan Taylor was missed up front.

Such a shame Taylor can’t remain fit for longer periods. A very useful player.
 

tonyw

Active member
#17
For us to go down from here, all of the following would have to happen:

a) We'd have to lose both games
b) Gillingham would have to take at least two points from their last two (they haven't won since March 10th, and have scored 1 goal in 6 April games)
c) Wimbledon would have to take four points from their last three (one of which is away to Wigan)
d) Walsall would need to win two of their last three (they've only won one of their last eight, and that was home against Bury)
e) Oldham would need to win two of their last three (they've only won one of their last nine)
f) Rochdale would need to win two of their last three (though obviously one would be the game against us)

Basically we'd need for five teams that have been bad all season to suddenly all turn it around at the same time.

So whilst we're not mathematically safe yet, it's probably a 1 in a thousand shot from here (even most of the bookies have us at 66-1 for relegation now)
 

Sarge

Well-known member
2018-19 shirt sponsor for Jamie Hanson
#18
For us to go down from here, all of the following would have to happen:

a) We'd have to lose both games
b) Gillingham would have to take at least two points from their last two (they haven't won since March 10th, and have scored 1 goal in 6 April games)
c) Wimbledon would have to take four points from their last three (one of which is away to Wigan)
d) Walsall would need to win two of their last three (they've only won one of their last eight, and that was home against Bury)
e) Oldham would need to win two of their last three (they've only won one of their last nine)
f) Rochdale would need to win two of their last three (though obviously one would be the game against us)

Basically we'd need for five teams that have been bad all season to suddenly all turn it around at the same time.

So whilst we're not mathematically safe yet, it's probably a 1 in a thousand shot from here (even most of the bookies have us at 66-1 for relegation now)
some bookies have us at over 80-1 for relegation currently :eek:
 

Yellow River

Active member
2018-19 shirt sponsor for Jamie Hanson
#19
For us to go down from here, all of the following would have to happen:

a) We'd have to lose both games
b) Gillingham would have to take at least two points from their last two (they haven't won since March 10th, and have scored 1 goal in 6 April games)
c) Wimbledon would have to take four points from their last three (one of which is away to Wigan)
d) Walsall would need to win two of their last three (they've only won one of their last eight, and that was home against Bury)
e) Oldham would need to win two of their last three (they've only won one of their last nine)
f) Rochdale would need to win two of their last three (though obviously one would be the game against us)

Basically we'd need for five teams that have been bad all season to suddenly all turn it around at the same time.

So whilst we're not mathematically safe yet, it's probably a 1 in a thousand shot from here (even most of the bookies have us at 66-1 for relegation now)

Thanks for posting this Tony, nice and clear.

Still ain’t counting my chickens though!;)
 
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