Matches Race, Limp or Crawl to Safety

[Carpy]

Position​	Team​	Form​	PPG Last 6​	Played​	Points​	GD​	26th April​	3rd May​
19​		WLWLWLD​	1.66​	44​	49​	-18​	Home​	Away​
20​		DLWLDLW​	1.33​	44​	48​	-9​	Home​	Away​
21​		WWLDDLW​	1.83​	44​	46​	-9​	Away​	Home​
22​		DWDDLWW​	2​	44​	46​	-23​	Home​	Away​
23​		DWDDLLD​	1.16​	44​	43​	-23​	Home​	Away​
24​		LDWLWLW​	1.66​	44​	43​	-37​	Away​	Home​

​

 

[Steve Gilbert]

I wouldn’t be dismissive of Cardiff, if they beat us they could be 3 points or less behind at that point with a potentially better goal difference.

For me if we can avoid defeat at Cardiff then things look much rosier. Of course we both have games before then too that could impact the situation considerably, though both are very tough games.

It would not shock me if we got at least a point against Leeds. It won’t be pretty and it will be Rowett Ball at its best but if any manager can s**t house their way to a result against them then it will be our Gaz!

 

[holdsteady]

Lutons game against Derby this Friday is massive for the relegation battle but also absolutely huge for them, lose and they give a rival 3 points but also the next 3 games are all against teams battling to get in the play offs, they would probably need to win all 3 which is a hell of an ask from those fixtures. You can pretty much discount Luton and Plymouth if they lose on Friday, Some huge games with Sheffield United needing a win to stay in the automatic/title race against Cardiff desperate for something as well, a brilliant bank holiday of football with the double header fixtures having a huge effect all over the FL with so few games after.

 

[Jster]

Still better for us if Derby lose, I think, though a draw possibly optimum.

 

[Pompeyyellows]

The sooner 3 or more teams cant catch us the better

 

[holdsteady]

Still better for us if Derby lose, I think, though a draw possibly optimum.

Is it not better to keep the bottom 3 as far away as possible? Who cares how many points you are from 21st when it’s 22nd that gets you relegated? If Cardiff, Luton and Plymouth all lose them a draw on Monday keeps us up however we get on against Leeds later on Friday, so that’s what I will be hoping for.

 

[Jster]

Better to keep 4 sides down there, I think. Protects us more against the scenario where one of them goes on a sudden winning run, which can happen.

 

[OX14]

Better to keep 4 sides down there, I think. Protects us more against the scenario where one of them goes on a sudden winning run, which can happen.

A draw between Derby and Luton, Cardiff to lose at Sheffield United, Pompey to lose at Norwich, Plymouth to lose at Middlesbrough, Preston to lose at home to QPR, Stoke to lose at home to Sheffield Wednesday, Hull to lose away at Swansea. They would be the best results before kick off on Friday but you can bet atleast a couple of them won't go that way.

The positive is with 4 games to go we aren't just talking about the bottom 3 and us, there are another 5 teams not including us that aren't safe yet.

 

[Lost Marbles]

Is it not better to keep the bottom 3 as far away as possible? Who cares how many points you are from 21st when it’s 22nd that gets you relegated? If Cardiff, Luton and Plymouth all lose them a draw on Monday keeps us up however we get on against Leeds later on Friday, so that’s what I will be hoping for.

I'd completely agree with if we weren't playing Cardiff. I'd like another team down there just in case we lose that game. Cardiff is one game where a 0-0 draw will be celebrated like mad in the away end. But that would be a horrible watch, even more tense than the Peterborough away play off game.

 

[Ewes]

Championship - Table calculator

Championship Table calculator

www.worldfootball.net

This was the one put on here a few days ago.

I’ve calculated Us will finish 20th on 48 points, above Hull on 47, with Cardiff (45), Luton (41) and Plymouth (40) going down. Bristol City to pip Coventry to the final play-off place by 1 point.

I’m sure there will be twists & turns and the actual final places will differ to my predictions, but I have been quite conservative and not predicted any freak results.

 

[Scotchegg]

I’ve calculated Us will finish 20th on 48 points, above Hull on 47, with Cardiff (45), Luton (41) and Plymouth (40) going down. Bristol City to pip Coventry to the final play-off place by 1 point.

I’m sure there will be twists & turns and the actual final places will differ to my predictions, but I have been quite conservative and not predicted any freak results.

You've predicted 4 straight defeats for us?

 

[holdsteady]

You've predicted 4 straight defeats for us?

Well he was quite conservative.

 

[Bigdwoolly]

Quick update on this. 38 games gone. Now, of the 60 teams in the relegation places at this stage, 53 of them end up relegated. And 2 of those are the weird covid season, which really I'm going to ignore from now on as it's an outlier and for good reason.

Encouraging stats - no team in 18th place at this point has ended up relegated.

Less encouraging stats - both Peterborough and Wolves in 2013 had 42 points at this stage of the season and went down - but both were already in the relegation places. This was the season Peterborough went down with 54 and Wolves with 51, so it wasn't even as if they fell off a cliff either.

Ok, final update on this. Ignoring the covid year - of the 57 teams in the relegation places after 42 games, 53 end up getting relegated so if you're in there now, it's looking very bleak.

In term of points only 2 teams with 48 or more points after 42 games have been relegated (in the same season 2013 - Wolves in 23rd, 48 and Peterborough in 21st with 50).

In terms of positions, no team in 17th after 42 games has been relegated. The closest is Gillingham in 2005, who were 18th with 47 points but ended up relegated with 52 points. At that point though, they were only 2 points clear of the bottom 3, not 6 like we are.

So, in conclusion, it's basically done - we're pretty much safe. I know there'll be some twitching about this, but it would take a very unusual set of results for us to get relegated from here.

 

[OtteryYellow]

Ok, final update on this. Ignoring the covid year - of the 57 teams in the relegation places after 42 games, 53 end up getting relegated so if you're in there now, it's looking very bleak.

In term of points only 2 teams with 48 or more points after 42 games have been relegated (in the same season 2013 - Wolves in 23rd, 48 and Peterborough in 21st with 50).

In terms of positions, no team in 17th after 42 games has been relegated. The closest is Gillingham in 2005, who were 18th with 47 points but ended up relegated with 52 points. At that point though, they were only 2 points clear of the bottom 3, not 6 like we are.

So, in conclusion, it's basically done - we're pretty much safe. I know there'll be some twitching about this, but it would take a very unusual set of results for us to get relegated from here.

I totally agree, I have stopped thinking about relegation as a prospect.

 

[ttg17]

Would be great to get it all wrapped up by Sunderland at home. Can just have a big old party and give the players a proper send off.

 

[SteMerritt]

I totally agree, I have stopped thinking about relegation as a prospect.

I wish I had. After Saturday I was nice and relaxed about it, thinking we were just about there. Now every time I see the table at the top of this thread's pages I get more jitty. We are so bloody close.

 

[Foley]

Ok, final update on this. Ignoring the covid year - of the 57 teams in the relegation places after 42 games, 53 end up getting relegated so if you're in there now, it's looking very bleak.

In term of points only 2 teams with 48 or more points after 42 games have been relegated (in the same season 2013 - Wolves in 23rd, 48 and Peterborough in 21st with 50).

In terms of positions, no team in 17th after 42 games has been relegated. The closest is Gillingham in 2005, who were 18th with 47 points but ended up relegated with 52 points. At that point though, they were only 2 points clear of the bottom 3, not 6 like we are.

So, in conclusion, it's basically done - we're pretty much safe. I know there'll be some twitching about this, but it would take a very unusual set of results for us to get relegated from here.

I think that we should be safe, but IF we were to lose to Cardiff, this would really open things up again.
Draw there and we should be just about safe.

 

[Ovaltoyou]

I've become a big WBA fan.

 

[Mateo Corbo's Tackle]

If we are still six points clear with three to go and so many teams below us still having to play each other, I very much look forward to the mess on here with people trying to figure out algorithms to see if we are definitely safe.

Those people will include me, for the record.

 

[MarkG]

So the Hull draw last night leaves them only needing three points to go ahead of us on goal difference. Friday afternoon's matches will be an interesting thread.

A Leeds supporter last night said that he thinks we will draw on Friday night after they only drew away at Luton the other week. Though after the fixture at Elland Road I'm not that confident.

 

[Scotchegg]

I think that we should be safe, but IF we were to lose to Cardiff, this would really open things up again.
Draw there and we should be just about safe.

Beat Leeds, lose to Cardiff then beat Sunderland to guarantee safety in front of another home sell out.

Its the Oxford way.

 

[Steve McAvoy]

I was just thinking back to the penultimate game at Forest Green a couple of seasons back. All around me people were debating whether we were close to being safe, even at 3-0 ahead. Fans can get very jittery; I’m pretty certain we were already clear of relegation but it isn’t straightforward.

 

[SteMerritt]

I was just thinking back to the penultimate game at Forest Green a couple of seasons back. All around me people were debating whether we were close to being safe, even at 3-0 ahead. Fans can get very jittery; I’m pretty certain we were already clear of relegation but it isn’t straightforward.

Wasn't that the game where Northampton capitulated late on at home to secure our safety? Think they were a couple of goals up, but then blew up ensuring our safety. Had they not, we would have needed something against Accrington on the last day of the season.

Sliding Doors moment.

 

[Ewes]

Well he was quite conservative.

Yes, I’ve predicted Sunderland, Swansea & Cardiff all beat Us 2-1, and Leeds win 2-0.

I realise the Cardiff prediction might be wildly out or at least not something everyone agrees with, but they’re fighting for survival, will be their final home game and I’d expect CO’D to be influential in a fierce game. Just my view.

I can’t see us getting any points from the Leeds or Sunderland matches, and Swansea are coming into form and when we play them it’ll be their final home game and Sheehan will probably be announced as their new manager.

Will be relieved and ecstatic if my predictions turn out to be wrong but you only have to look at our inconsistent form and the loss of Brown to worry how we’ll perform.

 

[holdsteady]

Yes, I’ve predicted Sunderland, Swansea & Cardiff all beat Us 2-1, and Leeds win 2-0.

I realise the Cardiff prediction might be wildly out or at least not something everyone agrees with, but they’re fighting for survival, will be their final home game and I’d expect CO’D to be influential in a fierce game. Just my view.

I can’t see us getting any points from the Leeds or Sunderland matches, and Swansea are coming into form and when we play them it’ll be their final home game and Sheehan will probably be announced as their new manager.

Will be relieved and ecstatic if my predictions turn out to be wrong but you only have to look at our inconsistent form and the loss of Brown to worry how well perform.

But our inconsistent form has seen us win/draw games? Its inconsistent not terrible, how many 4 game losing runs have we gone on under Rowett?

 

[Left Wing Cross]

But our inconsistent form has seen us win/draw games? Its inconsistent not terrible, how many 4 game losing runs have we gone on under Rowett?

We haven't lost 4 games in a row all season

 

[Jaboysmith]

Wasn't that the game where Northampton capitulated late on at home to secure our safety? Think they were a couple of goals up, but then blew up ensuring our safety. Had they not, we would have needed something against Accrington on the last day of the season.

Sliding Doors moment.

And the season after that, they would score late on the final day to send us 5th, avoiding a Bolton double-header.

 

[OX14]

But our inconsistent form has seen us win/draw games? Its inconsistent not terrible, how many 4 game losing runs have we gone on under Rowett?

Not just that but everyone seems to be forgetting the previous 42 games played this season. We are 6 points clear of Cardiff, 8 clear of both Luton and Plymouth. Cardiff 1 PPG and both Luton and Plymouth 0.95 PPG from the previous 42 games. I know they're fighting but they would have to turn their ppg for the last 4 games into promotion form to get out of it.

And the season after that, they would score late on the final day to send us 5th, avoiding a Bolton double-header.

Another example of a team on the beach taking points from a team playing for something.

 

[QR]

We haven't lost 4 games in a row all season

DOOOOOOON'T!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Big Ron]

Yes, I’ve predicted Sunderland, Swansea & Cardiff all beat Us 2-1, and Leeds win 2-0.

I realise the Cardiff prediction might be wildly out or at least not something everyone agrees with, but they’re fighting for survival, will be their final home game and I’d expect CO’D to be influential in a fierce game. Just my view.

I can’t see us getting any points from the Leeds or Sunderland matches, and Swansea are coming into form and when we play them it’ll be their final home game and Sheehan will probably be announced as their new manager.

Will be relieved and ecstatic if my predictions turn out to be wrong but you only have to look at our inconsistent form and the loss of Brown to worry how well perform.

That's the spirit! All out negativity does it for me every time.

 

[Scotchegg]

I realise the Cardiff prediction might be wildly out or at least not something everyone agrees with, but they’re fighting for survival, will be their final home game and I’d expect CO’D to be influential in a fierce game. Just my view.

Not the greatest prediction based on them playing at home to West Brom 5 days later!