Matches Race, Limp or Crawl to Safety

[Carpy]

Position​	Team​	Form​	PPG Last 6​	Played​	Points​	GD​	26th April​	3rd May​
19​		WLWLWLD​	1.66​	44​	49​	-18​	Home​	Away​
20​		DLWLDLW​	1.33​	44​	48​	-9​	Home​	Away​
21​		WWLDDLW​	1.83​	44​	46​	-9​	Away​	Home​
22​		DWDDLWW​	2​	44​	46​	-23​	Home​	Away​
23​		DWDDLLD​	1.16​	44​	43​	-23​	Home​	Away​
24​		LDWLWLW​	1.66​	44​	43​	-37​	Away​	Home​

​

 

[tonyw]

Probably the best result for us would be for Derby and Luton to draw there game ?

That's fine too - the worst result is a Derby win.

 

[tonyw]

I like this format and have stollen it and updated @Steve Gilberts opening post

Probably worth putting Middlesborough in yellow, though?

If we think that West Brom have something to play for (and they do), then Boro are level with them on points!

 

[Londonroader1]

What a way to stay up beating Leeds on Friday night would be, live on prime time Sky, beating one of the two biggest teams in the division who are trying to win the league. Probably won’t happen but, as the biggest game of football on that day, the coverage we would get from that would be brilliant.

I really want us to take something from the Leeds game. Horrible f*ckers. Never liked Leeds.
OUFCX

 

[sideshowrob]

Did anyone see the Stoke winner at Cardiff? A hanball by the Stoke forward followed by a double ricochet past the keeper.

Cardiff 0-1 Stoke | Championship highlights

Highlights of the Sky Bet Championship match between Cardiff and Stoke.

www.skysports.com

 

[Foxy]

Hoping for the bottom 3 teams to lose on Friday. Then Plymouth would need to win all three of their last games. Luton too, would need to win all three of their last games. Cardiff would need to win two and draw the other game for all three of them to overtake us, if we were to lose all four of our remaining games. This is not going to happen of course, the odds would be astronomical.

 

[vcool]

4 final matches for us. H-A-H-A.

2 Home matches against top team, Leeds certainly want maintain their position as league leader and automatic promotion position. So draw is very good result here, Win is Fantastic. We certainly not a weak team when meet top teams, some results already shown, Sheffield United as latest one. Personally i want to see we can beat them, hate to see some comments in X from Leeds' fans....next we will get easy 3 points from OU....if they lose it will be big slaps to their faces !!! ( Realistic : 1 point )

The crucial is after that, meet Cardiff, bottom 5 teams still fight and each team still have chance for survive, i assume Sheffield United will beat them on week 43, so match between Cardiff - Oxford United is real showdown for justify. We win that match, we survive. The justify moment is on this match. ( Realistic : 3 points )

After that Home against Sunderland and our last league match this season, Away to Swansea. Both teams have no interest again. Sunderland already claimed playoff tickets, no matter what happen in their last 4 matches. Swansea same, already survive and nothing to fight again in their last match. ( Realistic : 1 point + 1 point )

So that's my calculation, week 44 is the key moment to declare the survive day. Could be happen in Week 43, anything is possible, but still realistic, draw is the best result.

IMO...We will end this season with 52-54 points.

 

[MarkG]

I like this format and have stollen it and updated @Steve Gilberts opening post

Hope @Steve Gilbert doesn’t mind ! I liked his

I like this format and have stollen it and updated @Steve Gilberts opening post

hope @Steve Gilbert doesn’t mind seeing as it was his thread and format to start with. I’ve had various versions of this for whether we might get relegated or make the play-offs in recent seasons.

Once I had found an excel that would do a league table if you input all and expected results but lost it. It obviously needed all fixtures being entered and can’t remember if it could deal with point deductions and also rearranged games.

 

[Foley]

Cardiff away to Sheffield Utd, Luton away to Derby and Plymouth away to Middlesborough on Good Friday. If all three of these fail to win, that should be job done before we play Leeds at 8 o'clock.

Not sure that is true.
A point at Cardiff should just about do it ( or a win somewhere.
If we were to lose to Cardiff ( assuming that we both lose Good Friday), then they will be 3 points behind with 2 games left. Both of their remaining games are winnable, against teams that gave virtually nothing to play for.

The fact that they have won one game in the last 6 does suggest that we are just about there, but I just want us to get there as soon as possible

 

[OtteryYellow]

Not sure that is true.
A point at Cardiff should just about do it ( or a win somewhere.
If we were to lose to Cardiff ( assuming that we both lose Good Friday), then they will be 3 points behind with 2 games left. Both of their remaining games are winnable, against teams that gave virtually nothing to play for.

The fact that they have won one game in the last 6 does suggest that we are just about there, but I just want us to get there as soon as possible

I think it's because there are so many teams below us and the combination of games between them means we are mathematically pretty much safe already. I haven't worked this out but statman said so after the QPR game on watg and who am I to argue with a statman!

 

[WRox]

Not sure that is true.
A point at Cardiff should just about do it ( or a win somewhere.
If we were to lose to Cardiff ( assuming that we both lose Good Friday), then they will be 3 points behind with 2 games left. Both of their remaining games are winnable, against teams that gave virtually nothing to play for.

The fact that they have won one game in the last 6 does suggest that we are just about there, but I just want us to get there as soon as possible

In my head it’s a point at Cardiff or two points from the other games.

Avoid defeat at Cardiff and someone would need incredible form out of nowhere. Lose both this weekend though and they’ll only be three points behind us even if they lose to Sheffield United.

I wouldn’t be surprised if they sacked Riza this week and appointed Aaron Ramsey or someone like that as a final roll of the dice either.

 

[holdsteady]

Key​

Top 6​

Something Still to Play For​

Relegation Rivals​

​

Position​	Team​	Form​	Played​	Points​	GD​	14-Apr​	18-Apr​	21-Apr​	25-Apr​	26-Apr​	03-May​
17​		LWLWLW​	42​	48​	-17​	-​	Leeds (H)​	Cardiff (A)​	-​	Sunderland (H)​	Swansea (A)​
18​		WLWDDW​	42​	47​	-11​	-​	Sheff Wed (H)​	Leeds (A)​	Sheff Utd (H)​	-​	Derby (A)​
19​		LLWLLD​	42​	46​	-16​	-​	Norwich (A)​	Watford (H)​	-​	Sheff Wed (A)​	Hull (H)​
20​		DWDLWL​	41​	44​	-9​	Coventry (H)​	Swansea (A)​	Preston (H)​	-​	Derby (H)​	Pompey (A)​
21​		WWWLDD​	42​	43​	-10​	-​	Luton (H)​	West Brom (A)​	-​	Hull (A)​	Stoke (H)​
22​		LWDDDL​	42​	42​	-21​	-​	Sheff Utd (A)​	Oxford (H)​	-​	West Brom (H)​	Norwich (A)​
23​		WDWDDL​	42​	40​	-26​	-​	Derby (A)​	Bristol City (H)​	-​	Coventry (H)​	West Brom (A)​
24​		WLDWLW​	42​	40​	-36​	-​	M'boro (A)​	Coventry (H)​	-​	Preston (A)​	Leeds (H)​

The form of everyone in the bottom 8 apart from Pompey is surprisingly good, 7 of the 8 teams running at a point a game or more over the last 6, not that many L and plenty of Ws. Just shows how you can't get to complacent when the teams who are safe are on the beach and the teams at the top get put under pressure at this stage, you get strange results. Pompey must be worried.

 

[Foley]

The form of everyone in the bottom 8 apart from Pompey is surprisingly good, 7 of the 8 teams running at a point a game or more over the last 6, not that many L and plenty of Ws. Just shows how you can't get to complacent when the teams who are safe are on the beach and the teams at the top get put under pressure at this stage, you get strange results. Pompey must be worried.

The trouble is that teams at the bottom need more than a point a game.
So Cardiff's 6 points in 6 games is not good enough ( 46 points over the season comparatively)
Pompey have a relatively easy run in ( Watford and Hull at home and Norwich/ Sheff W away).
They will be worried, but I can't see them not getting the points they need.

 

[holdsteady]

The trouble is that teams at the bottom need more than a point a game.
So Cardiff's 6 points in 6 games is not good enough ( 46 points over the season comparatively)
Pompey have a relatively easy run in ( Watford and Hull at home and Norwich/ Sheff W away).
They will be worried, but I can't see them not getting the points they need.

Probably right.

The bottom 3 obviously are the favourites to go, this double header Easter weekend is massive for them if they are going to stay up, especially with only two games left after.

 

[MarkG]

Luton and Plymouth effectively need three wins each to get past us with goal difference and I don't see that happening.

 

[Left Wing Cross]

Luton and Plymouth effectively need three wins each to get past us with goal difference and I don't see that happening.

Luton's longest positive league runs all season is 2 wins and have had a 5 game unbeaten run (2W + 3D)

Plymouth: 2W and unbeaten in 3 (1W + 2D)

They're going to have to be better than those.

Edit:
I've added a few more:
Cardiff - 2W and 7 (3W + 4D)
Derby - 4W (and best unbeaten)
Hull - 3W and 4 (2W + 2D)

 

[WRox]

Coventry v West Brom will be one to keep an eye on. WBA lose on Friday and they’ll be pretty much on the beach for Derby, Cardiff and Luton. If they get any sort of result then those 3 will probably be up against a side chasing down a top 6 spot.

Oxford’s last hurdle will be Cardiff away if we get at least a draw there, but there is a scenario where we only have a 3 point lead over them on Monday evening (less potentially) and they have a slight fixtures advantage.

 

[Ewes]

Does anyone know of an online score predictor where we can enter the remaining results and see where we’d finish (based on our guesses)?

For all teams and games in the division, not just ours. Thanks

 

[Jaboysmith]

Does anyone know of an online score predictor where we can enter the remaining results and see where we’d finish (based on our guesses)?

For all teams and games in the division, not just ours. Thanks

Championship - Table calculator

Championship Table calculator

www.worldfootball.net

This was the one put on here a few days ago.

 

[OX14]

Coventry v West Brom will be one to keep an eye on. WBA lose on Friday and they’ll be pretty much on the beach for Derby, Cardiff and Luton. If they get any sort of result then those 3 will probably be up against a side chasing down a top 6 spot.

Oxford’s last hurdle will be Cardiff away if we get at least a draw there, but there is a scenario where we only have a 3 point lead over them on Monday evening (less potentially) and they have a slight fixtures advantage.

It depends what Coventry do tonight though. Also even if Coventry did win their next 2 including beating West Brom that wouldn't mean west Brom would be on the beach as they would only be 8 points behind with 9 to play for. Also West Brom are only 4 points behind Bristol city in 5th (bristol city still have Sunderland, Preston at home and Leeds and Luton away to play)

Also don't get the Cardiff's last 2 fixtures are easier claim. West Brom will likely still be hanging on with a chance of the a play off spot and will likely go down to last game of the season and Norwich away is a bloody hard place to get a result. Where for us Sunderland at home are guaranteed 4th and Swansea away are Cardiff's rivals.

Let's not forget the teams also in this fight as it isn't a two horse race to avoid relegation.

 

[tonyw]

Also don't get the Cardiff's last 2 fixtures are easier claim. West Brom will likely still be hanging on with a chance of the a play off spot and will likely go down to last game of the season and Norwich away is a bloody hard place to get a result. Where for us Sunderland at home are guaranteed 4th and Swansea away are Cardiff's rivals.

Let's not forget the teams also in this fight as it isn't a two horse race to avoid relegation.

Agree with that - given the circumstances, I would rather have Sunderland (H), Swansea (A) than WBA (H), Norwich (A).
At worst, it's a wash, but given the "Don't want to get injured before the playoffs" combined with the "Fans cheering for the relegation of their rivals" combo, I think ours are easier.

Would still rather get a point in Cardiff, however, so that it's all academic anyways!

 

[WRox]

It depends what Coventry do tonight though. Also even if Coventry did win their next 2 including beating West Brom that wouldn't mean west Brom would be on the beach as they would only be 8 points behind with 9 to play for. Also West Brom are only 4 points behind Bristol city in 5th (bristol city still have Sunderland, Preston at home and Leeds and Luton away to play)

Also don't get the Cardiff's last 2 fixtures are easier claim. West Brom will likely still be hanging on with a chance of the a play off spot and will likely go down to last game of the season and Norwich away is a bloody hard place to get a result. Where for us Sunderland at home are guaranteed 4th and Swansea away are Cardiff's rivals.

Let's not forget the teams also in this fight as it isn't a two horse race to avoid relegation.

I hear what you’re saying, but I’d rather three of our relegation rivals played a team that a) was in prime position to make the playoffs after two big victories, than b) one in 9th, with 1 win in 7 games, that needs to make up at least two wins on promotion contenders in the last fortnight of the season.

So I do think it’s a team to keep an eye on that will influence how many points it takes to stay up this season.

 

[OX14]

I hear what you’re saying, but I’d rather three of our relegation rivals played a team that a) was in prime position to make the playoffs after two big victories, than b) one in 9th, with 1 win in 7 games, that needs to make up at least two wins on promotion contenders in the last fortnight of the season.

So I do think it’s a team to keep an eye on that will influence how many points it takes to stay up this season.

Teams won't be on the beach just yet, players are playing for contracts and also those teams are playing with zero pressure on the game.

Remember Accrington beating Pompey away a few years ago in the last game of the season when Pompey were trying to hold on to a play off spot or last season when already promoted Pompey beat Play off chasing Lincoln away.

Strap in for the last 4 hills on the rollercoaster of a season.

 

[Mateo Corbo's Tackle]

Did anyone see the Stoke winner at Cardiff? A hanball by the Stoke forward followed by a double ricochet past the keeper.

Cardiff 0-1 Stoke | Championship highlights

Highlights of the Sky Bet Championship match between Cardiff and Stoke.

www.skysports.com

The absolute sitter missed by Isaak Davies for Cardiff earlier on was a belter, even more so than Matt’s Clarke’s miss for Derby against Burnley.

It definitely feels like fortune has turned in our favour.

Bottom three all lose on Friday, and we are pretty much there.

 

[WRox]

Teams won't be on the beach just yet, players are playing for contracts and also those teams are playing with zero pressure on the game.

Remember Accrington beating Pompey away a few years ago in the last game of the season when Pompey were trying to hold on to a play off spot or last season when already promoted Pompey beat Play off chasing Lincoln away.

Strap in for the last 4 hills on the rollercoaster of a season.

True, but I think Saturdays a good example of what can happen to a team. Sure there’s still the same professional pride, but suddenly it makes perfect sense for them to play their own players over loanees like Beadle and Shea Charles, makes sense for them to rotate their squad around and rest anyone with a slight niggle. Hence they’ve gone from playoff chasers to no wins in five.

Hopefully it’s just one or two more hills and we don’t need to speculate much longer on motivation and rotation anyway!

 

[Mike_H]

Hull 0 Coventry 1 Sky Blues take the lead at start of 2nd half

 

[Steve Gilbert]

Agree with that - given the circumstances, I would rather have Sunderland (H), Swansea (A) than WBA (H), Norwich (A).
At worst, it's a wash, but given the "Don't want to get injured before the playoffs" combined with the "Fans cheering for the relegation of their rivals" combo, I think ours are easier.

Would still rather get a point in Cardiff, however, so that it's all academic anyways!

If we match Cardiff’s result on Friday and then we draw against on Monday, we still wont be mathematically safe. I don’t think we will be mathematically safe until we’ve played Sunderland at home.
It will mean a nice relaxing game in South Wales on 3rd May though!

 

[tonyw]

If we match Cardiff’s result on Friday and then we draw against on Monday, we still wont be mathematically safe. I don’t think we will be mathematically safe until we’ve played Sunderland at home.
It will mean a nice relaxing game in South Wales on 3rd May though!

Unless us matching Cardiff's result on Friday means that we've both won!

4 points from the next two, and there's numerous scenarios under which we could be safe already.

 

[Steve Gilbert]

Unless us matching Cardiff's result on Friday means that we've both won!

4 points from the next two, and there's numerous scenarios under which we could be safe already.

At this stage, being 6 points clear I’m very much taking the approach of let’s look after ourselves and not worrying too much about what others do. 1 point is needed from 4 games IMO.
We have 1 foot in the Championship for next season.

 

[Steve Gilbert]

Latest odds with Bet365. Looks like they very much think it is between Derby or Cardiff for the final relegation place.

 

[Chippy]

I wouldn’t be dismissive of Cardiff, if they beat us they could be 3 points or less behind at that point with a potentially better goal difference.

For me if we can avoid defeat at Cardiff then things look much rosier. Of course we both have games before then too that could impact the situation considerably, though both are very tough games.