Matches Race, Limp or Crawl to Safety

[Carpy]

Position​	Team​	Form​	PPG Last 6​	Played​	Points​	GD​	26th April​	3rd May​
19​		WLWLWLD​	1.66​	44​	49​	-18​	Home​	Away​
20​		DLWLDLW​	1.33​	44​	48​	-9​	Home​	Away​
21​		WWLDDLW​	1.83​	44​	46​	-9​	Away​	Home​
22​		DWDDLWW​	2​	44​	46​	-23​	Home​	Away​
23​		DWDDLLD​	1.16​	44​	43​	-23​	Home​	Away​
24​		LDWLWLW​	1.66​	44​	43​	-37​	Away​	Home​

​

 

[Steve Gilbert]

Position​	Team​	Form​	PPG Over Season​	PPG Last 6​	Played​	Points​	GD​	26th April​	3rd May​
19​		WLWLWLD​	1.11​	1.66​	44​	49​	-18​
20​		DLWLDLW​	1.09​	1.33​	44​	48​	-9​
21​		WWLDDLW​	1.04​	1.83​	44​	46​	-9​
22​		DWDDLWW​	1.04​	2​	44​	46​	-23​
23​		DWDDLLD​	0.97​	1.16​	44​	43​	-23​
24​		LDWLWLW​	0.97​	1.66​	44​	43​	-37​

​

Saturday 26th April
Luton vs Coventry (12.30pm KO)
Oxford vs Sunderland
Hull vs Derby
Cardiff vs West Brom
Preston vs Plymouth

Saturday 3rd May (all 12.30pm KO's)
Swansea vs Oxford
Pompey vs Hull
Derby vs Stoke
West Brom vs Luton
Norwich vs Cardiff
Plymouth vs Leeds

 

[Sarge]

I thought I would do a thread for our next 10 games along with the current bottom 5 and will update it each week. It will either help calm a few nerves or make it worse if we see teams start closing the gap!
Hull currently have the best form out of the 5 with Plymouth second averaging 1.5 points in the last 6 games. I can't see them keeping that form up though with the teams they have to play.

Oxford	Luton	Derby	Plymouth	Cardiff	Hull
Coventry (H)	Pompey (H)	Boro (A)	Hull (A)	Hull (H)	Cardiff (A)
Norwich (A)	Burnley (A)	Blackburn (H)	Sheff Weds (H)	Burnley (H)	Plymouth (H)
Hull (A)	Cardiff (A)	Coventry (H)	Pompey (A)	Sunderland (A)	Bristol (A)
Watford (H)	Boro (H)	Plymouth (A)	Derby (H)	Luton (H)	Oxford (H)
Boro (A)	Hull (A)	PNE (H)	Watford (A)	Blackburn (A)	WBA (A)
Sheff U (H)	Leeds (H)	Swansea (A)	Norwich (H)	Sheff Weds (H)	Luton (H)
QPR (H)	Stoke (A)	Burnley (H)	Swansea (A)	QPR (A)	Sheff Weds (A)
Sheff Weds (A)	Blackburn (H)	Pompey (A)	Sheff U (H)	PNE (A)	Watford (H)
Leeds (H)	Derby (A)	Luton (H)	Boro (A)	Stoke (H)	Coventry (H)
Cardiff (A)	Bristol (H)	WBA (A)	Coventry (H)	Sheff U (A)	Swansea (A)
Pts: 38	Pts: 28	Pts: 29	Pts: 30	Pts: 33	Pts: 33

Cheers @Steve Gilbert ...( no Stoke, Pompey or Swansea though? any of those 3 could be in the dog fight too IMO- and yes I've seen you've picked the current bottom 5 and us- with Stoke currently below us and Pompey & Swansea currently just above us)

 

[Steve Gilbert]

Cheers @Steve Gilbert ...( no Stoke, Pompey or Swansea though? any of those 3 could be in the dog fight too IMO- and yes I've seen you've picked the current bottom 5 and us- with Stoke currently below us and Pompey & Swansea currently just above us)

I went with those 5 as I believe it will be 3 out of those 5 although I think Hull might get out of it.
Having looked at the run of games the teams have I just can't see the bottom 3 getting enough points to climb out of trouble.

 

[Sir Winston]

@Steve Gilbert . Be great if you could keep this updated

 

[Sarge]

I went with those 5 as I believe it will be 3 out of those 5 although I think Hull might get out of it.
Having looked at the run of games the teams have I just can't see the bottom 3 getting enough points to climb out of trouble.

Fair enough- besides, tis your next ten game study of the current bottom 5 , plus us (7th from bottom- 3places above the drop zone,)- and its your prerogative what goes in and what doesnt too

 

[Steve Gilbert]

@Steve Gilbert . Be great if you could keep this updated

I will update each week.

 

[MarkG]

Is it good or bad that we only have one "six pointer" which is against Hull?

 

[Steve Gilbert]

Is it good or bad that we only have one "six pointer" which is against Hull?

Cardiff?

 

[MarkG]

Cardiff?

They've got to play Sheffield United according to your table.
Anyway, why not just make it the rest of the season?

I think I was just looking at the bottom three but still doesn't explain why i though Hull a six pointer but not Cardiff.

Anyway, I think those bottom five all have at least three six pointers compared to our two.

 

[BicesterU]

Cardiff?

Swansea, too? Perhaps not quite a six-pointer, but definitely a game we’re capable of getting points from.

I like that Cardiff and Hull’s games in hand are against each other on Tuesday, and Stoke’s is against Boro, also on Tuesday.

In an ideal world, Cardiff and Hull draw and Boro beat Stoke, meaning we go in to the final 12 games with an 8-point lead over 22nd, and 3 points ahead of 19th.

I absolutely understand some of the nervousness about our recent form, but as I’ve said elsewhere there are half a dozen other clubs who’d bite our hands off if you offered them the position we’re in.

It may still be touch and go whether we stay up, but I don’t think it was ever very likely that we’d be comfortably safe anything other than quite late in the season.

And I still think it’d be a hell if an achievement to stay up, whether we win our next three and cruise to the end of the season, or stay up on goal difference in the last game.

 

[Essexyellows]

Just win them all and its job done.

Eternal optimist me.

 

[Carpy]

Just win them all and its job done.

Eternal optimist me.

@Scotchegg is driving though, not sure he'd let you on

 

[Steve Gilbert]

They've got to play Sheffield United according to your table.
Anyway, why not just make it the rest of the season?

I think I was just looking at the bottom three but still doesn't explain why i though Hull a six pointer but not Cardiff.

Anyway, I think those bottom five all have at least three six pointers compared to our two.

I have edited it to include all remaining games and highlighted the 6 pointer games.

 

[oufc1991]

I have edited it to include all remaining games and highlighted the 6 pointer games.

Needs changing again you’ve got us playing Hull twice

 

[Steve Gilbert]

Needs changing again you’ve got us playing Hull twice

Which ever mod has edited it has got the 3 teams at the top which are the games in hand, out of line.

 

[Carpy]

Which ever mod has edited it has got the 3 teams at the top which are the games in hand, out of line.

It was already like that, I just coloured the ones marked as bold, I will let you sort

 

[SteMerritt]

Can you colour code the games against the top 4 in Orange so they stand out as well? Not Red, that colour has no place on here.

 

[Foxy]

I am hoping that 9 more points will be enough to stay up ? Watford H, QPR H, Cardiff A. would that be enough if we won those 3 games ?

 

[Steve Gilbert]

Can you colour code the games against the top 4 in Orange so they stand out as well? Not Red, that colour has no place on here.

I have gone with blue as orange will be used when a team draws, green for losing a game, red for a defeat.

 

[Steve Gilbert]

I am hoping that 9 more points will be enough to stay up ? Watford H, QPR H, Cardiff A. would that be enough if we won those 3 games ?

I think 2 wins and 2 draws will be enough however I think we will do better than that....QPR & Cardiff wins, draws against Coventry, Hull, Watford and Swansea.

 

[Foley]

I am hoping that 9 more points will be enough to stay up ? Watford H, QPR H, Cardiff A. would that be enough if we won those 3 games ?

2 wins and 4 draws should be enough.
Maybe 1 win and a few draws.
It is looking as if 45/46 could be enough this season ( possibly less if the bottom 3 carry on the way that they are)

 

[Essexyellows]

View attachment 25655

@Scotchegg is driving though, not sure he'd let you on

Takes one look at the driver and decide to get on the next one................

 

[Foxy]

Over the last 10 seasons, the points total needed to stay up has been.
2023 - 2024 pts needed = 51
2022 - 2023 pts needed = 49
2021 - 2022 pts needed = 41
2020 - 2021 pts needed = 44
2019 - 2020 pts needed = 49
2018 - 2019 pts needed = 41
2017 - 2018 pts needed = 43
2016 - 2017 pts needed = 51
2015 - 2016 pts needed = 49
2014 - 2015 pts needed = 46

The 10 year average pts needed to stay up = 46.7 pts

 

[Up The Manor]

I will update each week.

Are you doing a spreadsheet for our road into the play offs ???

 

[Steve Gilbert]

Are you doing a spreadsheet for our road into the play offs ???

That pipe dream disappeared after yesterday's defeat unfortunately.

 

[Scotchegg]

View attachment 25655

@Scotchegg is driving though, not sure he'd let you on

Sorry, no room!!

 

[East Stand Fan]

The way the league is going, we may only need 45 to stay up but even that would be an optimistic target considering how we are playing and who we have to play. Teams around and below will play each other (Cardiff v Hull on Tuesday for starters) and all it will take is a win here and a win there and the gap will start to close if we fail to start getting points on the board. Derby probably have the most ideal fixtures and Hull look best placed to get points on the board. We are playing 9 straight playoff and promotion contenders before a crucial game against Cardiff alone! 4pts out of the next 3 is desperately required and even that will only take us to 42. It's a relief that Watford did the job against Luton today and the home game against them will be another must-win at this rate.

 

[MarkG]

I have edited it to include all remaining games and highlighted the 6 pointer games.

Thanks, would make sense to put us on the RHS side of the fixtures as the sides are otherwise in the current order of the table from left to right. Then rearrange the table if a team moves up or down the table. Or in the situation arises and someone else drops into our play-off rivals (eg Stoke go above Pompey)

 

[Steve Gilbert]

Thanks, would make sense to put us on the RHS side of the fixtures as the sides are otherwise in the current order of the table from left to right. Then rearrange the table if a team moves up or down the table. Or in the situation arises and someone else drops into our play-off rivals (eg Stoke go above Pompey)

No pleasing some people!

I have kept us on the left because we are the best team (in the world) and rather than move each team around I will do what I have done now so the ones in the bottom 3 will have their points total in red.

 

[BicesterU]

Over the last 10 seasons, the points total needed to stay up has been.
2023 - 2024 pts needed = 51
2022 - 2023 pts needed = 49
2021 - 2022 pts needed = 41
2020 - 2021 pts needed = 44
2019 - 2020 pts needed = 49
2018 - 2019 pts needed = 44
2017 - 2018 pts needed = 43
2016 - 2017 pts needed = 51
2015 - 2016 pts needed = 49
2014 - 2015 pts needed = 46

The 10 year average pts needed to stay up = 46.7 pts

Would be interesting to see the bottom 6 sides and their points tallies after 34 games for each of theses seasons.