I wouldn't be surprised to see Reform collapse before the next election. Farage will be found out and has pretty much gone into hiding ahead of an important by-election.
Far too many skeletons in his closet and his narcissistic greed has pissed off too many people. Rupert Lowe and Restore are an absolute disgrace, but they have grown out of a collective hatred for Farage. It won't be long before he presents himself as the victim in all of this and jumps before all of his deals are laid open for all to see.
Others will be smelling blood and we're already seeing a power play between Jenrick and Yusef, and it won't be long before the likes of Braverman start making a play for control, whilst others like Pochin and Anderson go rogue.
The Tories couldn't unite the right or their party, and we will see the same with those further to the right.
I said back in June that Reform would collapse before the next election, and it looks like its happening already.
Farage hasn't gone, but he has been weakened significantly by the £5m stuff and the farce of the by-election. Yes, he will maintain his core vote. Like Trump supporters, the more dodgy he looks, the more they like him. But these core voters were never enough for victory at a GE.
And instead of winning over Tories or disaffected Labour supporters, he is now seen by many as a grifter, a liar and a joke. His weekly press conferences have disappeared, as has his frequent spots on every TV channel. GB news and Talk TV have questioned his explanation for his £5m gift, and right wing papers including the Times, the Telegraph and the Mail have run repeated stories against him.
Collectively, they now see Kemi Badenoch as the one most likely to become the next PM from the right.
It's only a matter of time before Farage quits to make a s**t tonne more money without any of the scrutiny that comes with it.
And Reform senior figures know this and smell blood. Zia Yusuf (possibly the single most odious individual in UK politics) is pulling the strings from Reform HQ and directly challenging Robert Jenrick (the second most odious) in what is looking like a battle for future leader. Neither have any of the charm or presence that Farage possesses, and neither have any hope of growing support for Reform. Yusuf is hated by the racist element of Reforms base, and is politically naive. Jenrick is hated by Tories and those that hate the Tories!
And beyond this you've got the likes of Richard Tice, Lee Anderson, Sarah Pochin and Suella Braverman who no one takes seriously anymore.
I said they'd collapse by the next election, I now think they'll be behind Labour and the Tories in the polls by the end of the year, and will barely see out the next 12 months as a party with credible GE ambitions.