Tories need to get the right candidate for this as its theirs to win. They got 33,000 votes and 72% of the vote in 2019. In 2024, those voters were split with 21,000 voting Fagage and 12,000 staying with the Tories.
Farage will still hold a core vote, but I would bet on a big chunk of those who ticked his box in 2024 going back to the Tories this time round. Then you've got the 11,000 or so that voted Labour, Lib Dems and Green.
If they go with "anyone but Farage", Restore drag some further to the right, and the Tories put up someone credible, then Farage is toast.
I think a Tobias Ellwood would absolutely walk this and probably kill Reform off for good.