National News Official 2019 General Election Thread

[Yellow River]

General election poll tracker: How do the parties compare?

Our poll tracker measures how people say they are going to vote at the next general election.

www.bbc.co.uk

Latest BBC poll tracker shows 42% of voters favour Tories, 32% Labour, 14% LibDem. That doesn't suggest a working majority. The poll tracker also suggests Tory support is flat-lining, Labour's support increasing, mainly at expense of LibDems. I doubt Labour have given up yet, but if Kier Starmer were leader then Labour's position would be much healthier.

Interesting article on the possibility of Keri Starmer being the next Labour leader and the difficulty of the task.

Could Keir Starmer succeed as the next leader of the Labour party? | The Spectator

During his last days as manager of Manchester United it was widely thought that whoever came after Sir Alex Ferguson would have an impossible job. The same might be said of Jeremy Corbyn’s successor as Labour leader. For while Sir Alex won every trophy in club football and Corbyn has won...

blogs.spectator.co.uk

 

[Berliner]

Interesting article on the possibility of Keri Starmer being the next Labour leader and the difficulty of the task.

Could Keir Starmer succeed as the next leader of the Labour party? | The Spectator

During his last days as manager of Manchester United it was widely thought that whoever came after Sir Alex Ferguson would have an impossible job. The same might be said of Jeremy Corbyn’s successor as Labour leader. For while Sir Alex won every trophy in club football and Corbyn has won...

blogs.spectator.co.uk

If you just said "Well, my main quality is I'm not Jeremy Corbyn" you'd probably get a five point rise in the polls.

 

[Sarge]

Interesting article on the possibility of Keri Starmer being the next Labour leader and the difficulty of the task.

Could Keir Starmer succeed as the next leader of the Labour party? | The Spectator

During his last days as manager of Manchester United it was widely thought that whoever came after Sir Alex Ferguson would have an impossible job. The same might be said of Jeremy Corbyn’s successor as Labour leader. For while Sir Alex won every trophy in club football and Corbyn has won...

blogs.spectator.co.uk

its almost a given that Starmer will be elected into the Labour hot seat, irrespective of how Thursday's election goes .... Corbyn is now over 70, so, outside of the likes of Raab, Reeece-Mogg & Patel's most fantasist wet dreams of raising retirement age to 75!!, he's beyond retirement age..., IF there's a Labour government ( propped up by SNP and maybe others?) elected, I can see him stepping aside fairly soon following the promised peoples vote re soft ( Labour negotiated) Brexit deal/ Remain referendum

 

[Foley]

Yes. Personally I would have liked to see Starmer as Labour leader before Corbyn got the gig, but in terms of turning the crock of a party around going forward, that ship may well have sailed for many years to come.

Yes I agree.
The changes made in the Labour party have in all likelihood made them pretty unelectable for some years - until they remember that they do need to win votes from some of the central ground, rather than just make their members happy.
I am amazed that their polling is so awful based on the opposition they face and the fact that the Tories have been in so long.

 

[Sarge]

Tonights U30's QT election special (BBC1 early eve)could give a better 'guide' than any poll or political pundit can to the possible outcome of Thursday's GE ... Its specifically for U30s, notoriously apathetic when it comes to voting, however since Brexit referendum there a plethora of younger voters registered, even more in the run in to this GE, the U30s vote IMO could well hold the key to the GE outcome

 

[Sarge]

Former speaker of HoC Betty Boothroyd on Johnson and his ingnorance of and contempt for the young(er) citizens of the Uk ...

Betty Boothroyd: How society treats its young defines us – and Boris Johnson is stripping ours of their future

When I was growing up there was a sense the generations were all in it together and, like resting boats, would rise together when the tide came. Now society has stopped listening to its young – and Boris Johnson has punched a hole in their hull

www.independent.co.uk

 

[PottersRightBoot]

Tonights U30's QT election special (BBC1 early eve)could give a better 'guide' than any poll or political pundit can to the possible outcome of Thursday's GE ... Its specifically for U30s, notoriously apathetic when it comes to voting, however since Brexit referendum there a plethora of younger voters registered, even more in the run in to this GE, the U30s vote IMO could well hold the key to the GE outcome

Morning Sarge, you remind me of the knight in that Monty Python film that kept on fighting despite gradual disembowelment.
it's the North and Midlands Brexiteers who have decide d this election.

 

[Gary Baldi]

Morning Sarge, you remind me of the knight in that Monty Python film that kept on fighting despite gradual disembowelment.
it's the North and Midlands Brexiteers who have decide d this election.

100% agree. There was a theory floating around a month or two back that Tom Watson stepped down as a MP not for whatever reason he said, but because he knew his seat was at risk from the Tories after local polling and didn't want to be seen to lose.

Pinch of salt an all that.

 

[Gary Baldi]

I've been poking around the polling data in the past couple of days, and I've noticed how much concern there is on the left about the quality of the data and how wrong it is from what they hear on the doorstep. It's hard one to unpick but at times, highlights the echo chambers that some of the people exist in.

This is the latest poll from YouGov, and the persistent 10% gap remains and Labour's support seems to be stalled and the Tories wavers by a 1 to 2%:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1203711849453248512

It again persists, but with different figures:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1203826821361471500

The raw data for the Survation poll shows the Midlands issue for Labour and how they could be marginalised in the South.
Question: Now thinking about your own constituency and the candidates likely to stand, if the General Election were tomorrow, which party would you vote for? Normal weightings & likelihood to vote

	London	Midlands	North	South	England	Scotland	Wales
Unweighted Total	99	170	200	299	768	88	53
Weighted Total	123	143	216	291	774	82	44
Conservative	51	65	64	133	313	16	14
	41.1%	45.6%	29.8%	45.7%	40.5%	19.7%	30.5%
Labour	45	32	82	43	202	20	17
	36.2%	22.5%	37.8%	14.8%	26.1%	24.2%	37.7%

I can only reiterate it's a snap shot in time, but Labour should be bricking it in the Midlands right now and the figures don't get better for them.

When looking at Prime Minister, the Corbyn factor is stark outside of London, Scotland and NI.
Question: Which of the following party leaders do you think would make the best Prime Minister?

	London	Midlands	North	South	England	Scotland	Wales	NI
Unweighted Total	105	190	216	328	839	94	56	23
Weighted Total	133	162	236	320	850	85	48	28
Boris Johnson	42	80	97	151	370	19	16	7
	31.5%	49.5%	41.3%	47.1%	43.5%	22.7%	33.9%	25.8%
Jeremy Corbyn	50	24	63	46	183	34	14	12
	38.0%	14.6%	26.6%	14.5%	21.5%	40.3%	28.0%	42.5%

In terms of truth, this again is interesting

Question: Out of the following, who do you trust the most to tell the truth?

	London	Midlands	North	South	England	Scotland	Wales	NI
Unweighted Total	105	190	216	328	839	94	56	23
Weighted Total	133	162	236	320	850	85	48	28
Boris Johnson	38	41	67	85	231	12	14	2
	28.7%	25.2%	28.3%	26.7%	27.2%	14.2%	29.7%	8.0%
Jeremy Corbyn	40	22	57	40	159	17	12	8
	30.5%	13.4%	24.2%	12.6%	18.7%	19.9%	24.9%	29.7%

Boris is Mr 8% in NI, I wonder why...

That snapshot for the moment in time exposes where some of Labours issues are, and who the issue maybe. One for the Corbynistas to chew on.

 

[Canterburyexile]

Morning Sarge, you remind me of the knight in that Monty Python film that kept on fighting despite gradual disembowelment.
it's the North and Midlands Brexiteers who have decide d this election.

I’d say it’s a combination of north & midlands brexiteers, minority voters, lib dem swingers and new voters.

my view is that the tories will achieve a very narrow majority that will most likely collapse within 2 years.

which serves no-one.

 

[Sarge]

think its fair to say that few , if any, of the party leaders have anything much in the way of appeal to many voters

it'd be refreshing if, if that is, and a big IF at that, in this GE votes were cast on policies not personalities

unlikely though it is, I do live in hope

 

[Gary Baldi]

think its fair to say that few , if any, of the party leaders have anything much in the way of appeal to many voters

it'd be refreshing if, if that is, and a big IF at that, in this GE votes were cast on policies not personalities

unlikely though it is, I do live in hope

If you look at the data I posted above, Boris seems to be far more popular than any of us on here perceive him to be, certainly against the other options available..

 

[Gary Baldi]

From a different poll, it rather contradicts some perceptions on here:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1204013334674202627

Another different coloured brick in a larger wall.

 

[Gary Baldi]

And this almost highlights the problem with Jeremy:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1203788778814476290

 

[Sarge]

whereas Johson really doesnt give a flying fcuk about real people who are suffering after nearly a decade of tor rule... as demonstrated earlier today....

Boris Johnson refuses to look at photo of child on hospital floor, takes reporter's phone and puts it in his pocket

Jeremy Corbyn said the exchange showed Mr Johnson ‘just doesn’t care’ after PM took more than a minute to address picture in interview

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Sarge]

Blimey ! When NI's DUP turn on Johnson n his cohorts that speaks volumes IMO ...

Arlene Foster turns on Boris Johnson, saying she will never take him at his word again

DUP leader says customs officials told her there would have to be checks at Irish Sea, contrary to Boris Johnson's promises

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Belgium Yellow]

That was really embarrassing. He clearly didn't want to acknowledge that particular circumstance, and doubtless will claim it's a rarity, the NHS is safe in Tory hands and funded better than ever before. Oh, and let's get Brexit done. Keep going @Sarge. Not sure how many people are reading your links, but while you still have limbs to be severed, keep going.

It also shows him as an idiot if he thinks that taking the reporter's phone will shut him up. Had the opposite effect, as he suddenly realises and has to backtrack

 

[tonyw]

The changes made in the Labour party have in all likelihood made them pretty unelectable for some years - until they remember that they do need to win votes from some of the central ground, rather than just make their members happy.

Aye. There is an absolute yawning chasm in the centre of British politics at the moment. The Tories have lurched to the right (mostly....although it is a Trump-esque populist kind of Conservatism), and Labour have lurched to the left, and they've both left the centre ground entirely unoccupied.

The Lib Dems should have done a better job of filling it - but the polls suggest they clearly haven't, which is mostly down to Swinson's entirely lackluster leadership (as well as, to a point, the British public's inability to look beyond the two traditional options.....a trend that probably won't change until we have PR).

Historically, the last time this happened post-Thatcher and post-Kinnock, Labour unearthed Tony Blair, won three consecutive elections and were in power for 13 years.
And for all that his foreign policy was a disaster, domestically and economically his record was decent.

The problem is that they may have now set their voting mechanism up in such a way that they will never anoint the next Blair - it will be Ed Millibands and Jeremy Corbyns for ever more.

As much as the UK needs an electable party in the centre-left.......I'm not sure where we're going to find one any time soon.

 

[Steve Gilbert]

If Labour had a better leader they would win this election hands down but unfortunately they have Corbyn! This election is like asking Turkey's to vote for christmas.

 

[Sarge]

If Labour had a better leader they would win this election hands down but unfortunately they have Corbyn! This election is like asking Turkey's to vote for christmas.