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 Match Preview - Oxford vs MK Dons

Overview
Oxford return to League One action, after a two year absence, by hosting newly-promoted and relatively local side, MK Dons. For new manager Aaron Ramsey, it is a chance to write the wrongs of his first competitive match in charge of the U's, with his first league game providing an opportunity to start on the front foot and set the tone for the upcoming season, in spite of the off-the-pitch issues. His side will be backed by a bumper crowd in OX4, of over 11,000, including a sold out MK Dons away end; with expectations rife amongst both sets of supporters going into this game.

This will undoubtedly be a tough test for Oxford, coming up against an experienced and physical MK Dons outfit led by League One specialist Paul Warne. There should and won't be any complacency going into this game in regards to facing a team who played League Two football last campaign.

Being at home gives us a real opportunity to put in a front-footed, aggressive display; ultimately providing us with the chance to get off to a winning start, which feels much needed amongst the squad and the wider club itself, to settle any nerves on the pitch going into this season.

Predicted line-up
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One change to the back line from the defeat at Leyton Orient sees Michal Helik come in for Sam Long at centre half.
With MK Dons being a very physical side, the added height and aerial prowess of Helik could be useful and he was much missed in last Saturday's defeat, in that capacity. Sam Long also looked fairly uncomfortable in possession, so Ramsey may see that as a reason to change things up in this position.

Midfield three stays the same, mainly due to the lack of options in that department. In order to control the game, we will need to get Brannagan on the ball much more, whilst McDonnell will be our key to winning the ball back out of possession, as ever.
Tyler Goodrham had a few decent touches and picked up some nice positions at Orient on occasion, but struggled to influence the game too much. He keeps his place on sheer attacking quality.

In the forward line, the wingers remain unchanged: Siriki Dembele had a really promising first half on Saturday and will clearly play a big part this season, whilst Aidomo Emakhu keeps his place simply due to the lack of other options on the right wing, with Stan Mills, who I will come on to, seemingly unlikely to play.
Perhaps the most interesting discussion is who starts up front. I've gone with Gatlin O'Donkor on the basis that, again, he adds physicality and pace against a very tall MK Dons back line. Additionally, Mark Harris had a pretty poor game at Brisbane Road, and with O'Donkor's strong form throughout pre-season, probably hasn't justified keeping his place ahead of this one.

The Opposition
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I expect MK Dons to stick with the 3-5-2 system that got them promoted out of League Two this season, especially with it being a formation used throughout the majority of manager Paul Warne's career.

As has been mentioned a lot throughout, they are a very physical, fit and well-drilled team, as to be expected under Warne's leadership. However, they also have plenty of quality sprinkled throughout the midfield and forward areas.

The three 'key players' highlighted are a shining example of the talent MK Dons possess.
In Ryan Wintle, there is a player that may well be known to many Oxford fans in recent weeks, given we were heaving linked with him before the embargo. Having won Cardiff's Player of the Season award last season, this signing is a huge coup for 'the Dons' and an example of the financial muscle they have despite their small stature. Wintle will aim to dictate the tempo of the game and get on the ball in deep areas,
Dan Barlaser is another new signing considered to be a bit of a reach from MK Dons. Having played a fair amount of games for Middlesbrough in recent seasons, he was expected to and likely did garner lower end Championship or top end League One interest. This shows their ambition, adding a hard-working and tidy player to their ranks.
Sam Nombe is the Franchise's big money signing of the summer. He is a proven goalscorer at this level, notching 12 for a relegated Rotherham side last season; he signed for a reported 7 figure fee and will undoubtedly provide us with some questions defensively, with a keen eye for the back of the net.

Overall, MK Dons are a side who will want to challenge for the top 6, similarly to us, but maybe with a fall-back expectation of top 10. They are not a typical newly-promoted side, and were almost operating as a mid table League One outfit last season, with the improvements to their squad propelling them up the table.
Their fans will come to the Kassam with an air of cautious optimism, knowing their side have the ability to cause us problems.

Tactical setup
I would anticipate MK Dons will operate in a 'mid block', meaning they will likely sit off Oxford in possession and aim to frustrate us by being very tactically astute in their out of possession set up, but with the potential to hit us on the break. They will, however, almost certainly, have periods of dominance in the game, with their midfield three able to control the pace of the game and retain possession well.

They will look to hurt us by using their wing backs to get high and wide on the break, providing quality crosses into two brilliant first-time finishers in Sam Nombe and Aaron Collins. This may well cause us problems, given our weakness in defending balls into the box, and ultimately conceding both goals from crosses at Leyton Orient.

For us, we will likely look to exploit the space in behind the wing backs when they get too high, by using the pace of both Emakhu and O'Donkor and pushing Jack Currie forward in order to give us an outlet on the left hand side, with Dembele often drifting inside. However, if we try to play a centralised, midfield-heavy game, MK Dons will probably come out on top, given their physical presence in that area and the fact they will have an extra man in there.

Additional bits
Given they have been the biggest talking point in recent weeks, Brian de Keersmaecker and Stan Mills were eventually going to have to be discussed.

Whilst Ramsey's excuses for both of their absences are running thin, the season is ever approaching, meaing at least in de Keersmaecker's case that he will only miss more and more football due to a lack of match fitness.

Frankly, the constant talk around both players is pretty tedious and it needs to be resolved one way or another. Whilst I don't believe Ramsey is outright lying to the fans regarding the two's non-appearances and the reasons for it, the repetitive "illnesses" to both understandably feel quite convenient. I have no interest in speculating on what is going on with these two behind the scenes, because the constant rumours without evidence only increases toxicity and therefore are unnecessary. Instead, I'll stick to talking about the likelihood of either featuring on Saturday, purely from a footballing perspective rather than a speculative one.

Providing he's still contracted to the club come Saturday's game, if Stan Mills has returned to training today like Ramsey said he would, then there's no reason why he shouldn't feature against MK Dons, unless of course he contracts something else. However, again, I'm not going to comment on the personal feelings of Stan himself, but I suspect that with the transfer speculation around him, Aaron Ramsey may opt not to include him in the squad until his future is resolved one way or the other, hence why I have left him out of the predicted line-up.
As for Brian de Keersmaecker, purely from a fitness point of view, there is a very slim chance he features in the near future for Oxford, given he hasn't played a minute of football in 7 months, and hasn't featured in any of United's pre season fixtures. It will be about gently adding him back into the team and nursing him through his first few games, if, of course, he remains at the club beyond September 1.


This is the first of weekly match previews and reports for each league game this season and I'd love to get feedback on the format of it and any improvements, and of course, your thoughts ahead of this game!
Many thanks for taking the time to read!
 
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