National News Lockdown

[MC Yellow]

That said the SA data looks promising.

Indeed.

So, do we monitor the situation hourly and proceed with caution? Or, ignore the early data and just stop families spending time with their loved ones.

 

[MC Yellow]

You wouldn't, would you?

So remind me.

 

[Essexyellows]

For Johnson it's 'better to be sorry than safe' as he doesn't do sorry.

That said the SA data looks promising.

Taking a middle path makes eminent sense based on what we know so far...... with the option to do more post-Christmas if needed.

 

[38yearsofpain]

Taking a middle path makes eminent sense based on what we know so far...... with the option to do more post-Christmas if needed.

All I heard is the planning is for 27th December curcuit breaker both inside and outside government. This has been the provisional plan since the back end of last week. I am sure there are many options. But the give the people Christmas and then react is the preferred option.

 

[Robie]

All I heard is the planning is for 27th December curcuit breaker both inside and outside government. This has been the provisional plan since the back end of last week. I am sure there are many options. But the give the people Christmas and then react is the preferred option.

Is that a red or white?

 

[QR]

Indeed.

So, do we monitor the situation hourly and proceed with caution? Or, ignore the early data and just stop families spending time with their loved ones.

Hum, I have suggested stopping 'families spending time with their loved ones'. I will be!

Others who analyse these things closely point to the dangers of drawings comparisons with the SA data. I hope it translates to other demographics on other continents I just wouldn't gamble mine or anyone else's life on it!

 

[Oxymoron]

With only a couple of days left until the celebrations begin, the chances of there being mass compliance with any household mixing style constraints must be virtually zero and I'm sure that is recognised by the govt.

Like countless other families with work commitments our gathering will be held on Boxing Day, so I didn’t expect any restrictions to be imposed before the 27th.

With no hard evidence to point the way, it's the pragmatic approach.

 

[Scotchegg]

Hum, I have suggested stopping 'families spending time with their loved ones'. I will be!

Others who analyse these things closely point to the dangers of drawings comparisons with the SA data. I hope it translates to other demographics on other continents I just wouldn't gamble mine or anyone else's life on it!

It's also worth looking at data coming from Denmark. They have a high vaccination rate but also one of the highest testing rates per capita in the world. It is showing similar trends to SA with omicron looking the spread exceptionally fast but to burn out relatively quickly.

It still very early to draw any long standing findings, but the hope is that we will not see the levels of hospitalisations and deaths of a year ago despite vastly increased infection rates. Whether that is down to a weakening virus or a result of vaccinations is hard to say, but the outlook is more positive than was feared a couple of weeks ago.

 

[MC Yellow]

Hum, I have suggested stopping 'families spending time with their loved ones'. I will be!

Others who analyse these things closely point to the dangers of drawings comparisons with the SA data. I hope it translates to other demographics on other continents I just wouldn't gamble mine or anyone else's life on it!

Neither would I.

But by the same token we are not going to let my mother or my wife’s parents spend Christmas day on her own.

We test, we monitor and we are all jabbed and had the booster. The science says that the booster offers 80% protection, I’ll accept those odds.

Of course I am no expert, but taking world data to date, the virus has seemed to act in a similar fashion across the globe, so there is hope that the SA data will translate.

As I said earlier, it is a roll of the dice as far as Boris is concerned, but rightly or wrongly it gives us all a choice to manage our own risk assessment.

Would I have gone to Portsmouth under normal circumstances, yes. Was I going this year, no.

Mingling and get togethers are off the agenda but we will be catching up with one or two friends and acting responsibly.

 

[gofish2]

It's not meaningless.

When deciding what measures to take against a disease, you have to take into account both its transmissibility and its deadliness.
If you only cared about deadliness, you'd have to lock down every year because of influenza (which kills 25-30k); if you only cared about transmissibility, then you'd have to lock down for any rhinovirus that goes round each year.

What has made Covid (both the original strains, and delta) 'special' is this combination - it's both incredibly contagious, and (compared to most common colds) extremely deadly, particularly to at-risk individuals.

With Omicron, we don't have the data yet. We do know it's absurdly contagious. We don't yet know how deadly it is. My understanding is that there have not yet been enough hospital cases to draw any statistically significant conclusions.

So whilst I can absolutely understand countries taking precautionary lockdown measures whilst we wait for that data to come in......when we do have the data, then mortality rate has to be one of the factors that helps determine what countermeasures are appropriate.

I broadly agree except that Flu is endemic and we have a very great deal of understanding about the ways in which that virus behaves with a well established annual vaccination programme, should people choose to use it. As far as 'deadliness' is concerned, this of course is highly relevant by the virtue of the fact that this is not the only concern as the global responses demonstrate. Death, is the worst possible outcome of course, but the myriad related outcomes of this illness we haven't yet begun to understand. And, it is the capacity to consider that we don't know which is so important.
My reference to comments regarding death rates are focussed entirely upon those who regard this as the only marker of seriousness. I completely agree with your comments about data and that we clearly do not have enough yet.
In the meantime, keeping an open mind (not aimed at you) at what we don't know, yet, is vital.

 

[PottersRightBoot]

Mayor declares ‘major incident’ as the Omicron variant surges

Sadiq Khan has today declared a ‘major incident’ due to the rapid spread of the Omicron variant across the capital.

www.london.gov.uk

"It means that coordination arrangements between key public services will be further stepped-up with the re-establishment of the Strategic Coordinating Group, which will have a Government representative enabling London to seek further support from government to address the pressures facing the city."

Aka give us your money.

 

[PottersRightBoot]

Early U.K. data is now coming out re Omicron. It is looking like the peak infection date was 15th December. Not that you would hear or see this on the Beeb.

Two of my daughters caught the virus on 11th. They live in SE London. Caught it at a local party. So apparently did everyone else. No one has thankfully been more than mildly ill. (Omicron has spread like wildfire in Southwark and Lambeth. ) The issue with Khan’s ‘major incident’ is that many 20 and 30 year olds work for NHS/public sector and many of them have been off work. Hence the potential ‘breakdown in civilisation’.

We live in SW London. We have a decent circle of friends and acquaintances. We have heard of no one over 40 who’s caught the latest wave. It’s all twenty somethings.

All I’m saying is that it’s not Shaun of the Dead here.

 

[werthersoriginal]

Early U.K. data is now coming out re Omicron. It is looking like the peak infection date was 15th December. Not that you would hear or see this on the Beeb.

Two of my daughters caught the virus on 11th. They live in SE London. Caught it at a local party. So apparently did everyone else. No one has thankfully been more than mildly ill. (Omicron has spread like wildfire in Southwark and Lambeth. ) The issue with Khan’s ‘major incident’ is that many 20 and 30 year olds work for NHS/public sector and many of them have been off work. Hence the potential ‘breakdown in civilisation’.

We live in SW London. We have a decent circle of friends and acquaintances. We have heard of no one over 40 who’s caught the latest wave. It’s all twenty somethings.

All I’m saying is that it’s not Shaun of the Dead here.

That’s good input. I guess as someone said elsewhere the fear is of things no longer functioning if a lot of the most active workers are off. Hopefully things will improve as more people get boosted.

 

[greatunclekip]

The mood amongst the researchers and data analysts at work is certainly a lot more upbeat than a few weeks ago when there were genuine fears it could actually be an apocalypse scenario (no exaggeration)

It's seemingly based on 3 factors

- it infects the bronchus rather than the carnage caused in the lung

- boosters still protect!

- it's quite simply not putting as many people in hospital- though lots of work still to do to figure out why.

The big worry at the moment is the sheer numbers and the opportunity for further mutation with which we may not be so lucky.

So with that in mind, sensible restrictions for a couple of weeks do seem sensible. If Boris hadn't been breaking rules left right and centre it would be a done deal.

 

[m]

Not much talk of long COVID recently.

 

[Essexyellows]

Not much talk of long COVID recently.

Not on the "national news"...... but...

Long Covid patients still affected one year after discharge, study finds

New research finds people with long Covid lasting months after hospital treatment are still suffering.

www.bbc.co.uk

£8.4m for new COVID-19 research | University of Leicester

PHOSP-COVID is the first UK wide study to assess the health impacts of COVID-19 on patients and their rehabilitation.

le.ac.uk

PHOSP

 

[m]

Not on the "national news"...... but...

Long Covid patients still affected one year after discharge, study finds

New research finds people with long Covid lasting months after hospital treatment are still suffering.

www.bbc.co.uk

£8.4m for new COVID-19 research | University of Leicester

PHOSP-COVID is the first UK wide study to assess the health impacts of COVID-19 on patients and their rehabilitation.

le.ac.uk

PHOSP

Thanks.

I guess I'm curious about the possibility and probability of long COVID cases in a high transmission/low hospitalisation scenario as we seem to be in now.

Specifically, risks of long COVID from the omicron variant.

There can't be any meaningful data yet I would think.

 

[Sarge]

Not on the "national news"...... but...

Long Covid patients still affected one year after discharge, study finds

New research finds people with long Covid lasting months after hospital treatment are still suffering.

www.bbc.co.uk

£8.4m for new COVID-19 research | University of Leicester

PHOSP-COVID is the first UK wide study to assess the health impacts of COVID-19 on patients and their rehabilitation.

le.ac.uk

PHOSP

I've a work colleague who contracted covid last year, which subsequently was diagnosed as long covid, she tried to ease back into work on a part-time basis, but eventually, it proved to be, even on part-time hours, working from home, was too much for her to cope with. She's been off long term sick for nearly 6 months now, it'll be a year since she first contacted covid, mid Feb next year

 

[RyanioBirdio]

Not much talk of long COVID recently.

Mate in his late twenties still suffering 18 months on. Was fit as a flea and still can’t even go for a mild jog on a cold day because the air stings his lungs too much. For the first year he couldn’t even vacuum the house without taking a break and when it was cold he couldn’t even go for a walk, let alone anything more. This guy regularly used to do a 5k on his lunch break when we worked together, cos why not, and was what I can only describe as “ripped”. Teetotal, never smoked - arguably the healthiest guy I know.

I was in New York in early March 2020 right when covid was starting to kick off there. I left to come home on the Saturday and by the following Wednesday the streets were empty. About a week after I got back I lost most of my hearing. I had around 10% in my left ear and maybe 25% tops in my right. There was no identifiable infection, no build-up of wax or other such attractive bodily substances etc. Ear drops and antibiotics did nothing. This lasted for a good 3/4 weeks, and when my hearing returned it did so with reasonably severe tinnitus. Despite spending most of my adult life working in music and going to gigs I had always looked after my ears and never had a problem, but ever since I lost my hearing and it returned there is never a moment when I hear silence. Sometimes I don’t notice it for periods (usually during the day / when I’m out or very busy) but it’s always there. As soon as I notice and tune back into it that’s it, and I couldn’t tell you what it’s like to lay in bed at night and hear nothing anymore. There have been more and more reports over the last year or so of people experiencing hearing loss / damage on the back of contracting covid, which would certainly tally up with what I experienced, especially given where I was and when etc. I can only speculate, but I reckon that’s reflective of much of ‘long covid’ as a whole. Not only are we still learning as more time passes but we’re kind of starting blind, because when most people came down with it nobody was testing them or examining them in person outside of hospitals and ICUs. It was mostly telephone calls and video calls, and that means we would’ve lost the ability to gather a lot of hard data from people. Not much could be done about that, though.

It’s the school kids I’m most worried about, who have spent a lot of time during this pandemic mixing together all day, every day, catching it and spreading it about etc. Especially secondary school kids, who until recently had absolutely zero protection as they weren’t allowed even a single shot. We assume that they won’t suffer from long-term issues or side effects and that the virus doesn’t seem to bother them much, but we really don’t know that for sure. Nor will we for a good while yet. We’re merely hoping for the best.

 

[Jerome'SAle]

I have also had tinnitus since having a fever in march 2020