This is all B*****s. Remember Charlie told us that league positions and budget go hand in hand duh.
The huge correlation is between the finishing position and average gate sizes. Generally very accurate although never a perfect science (Accrington, Shrews) Playing budget is often derived from gate and other revenues so it is loosely right, although as we saw last year, any team can hit a sweet spot/shocking momentum and go from top/bottom. Not sure I would back any of the teams coming down to win it next year despite their budgets, just because they have been so poor. Rather back a team with momentum.
I don’t buy the crowd size theory other than it generally correlates to squad budget if comparing to the rest of a league. Though I suppose there is the post factum effect , so if the team is doing well then crowds generally increase.
So I’d probably go for these factors for promotion :-
1. Squad budget
2. Director of Football ability to get the right players
3. Coach ability to get results on the pitch and to manage the players as the gaffer.
4. Players’ bonding to win games / not lose
5. Financial stability of the club.
Get 2-5 right and you should end up where 1 ranks you.
Get even one wrong and it could stuff the season up.
See getting it wrong Chesterfield (5). Oufc 2,3,4 perhaps 5. Bury 4 despite 2. Eastleigh 2,3,4. Forest green 2,3,4. Orient 5.
As predicted Wigan and Blackburn.
Unexpected Accrington probably got 2,3,4,5 right. In the past managers like Westley and Evans get 2,3,4 right with Stevenage and Crawley despite 1. But westley has struggled when players don’t buy into 3 and 4.
And for Sunderland they’ll have to turn around 2,3,4,5.