Scotchegg
Well-known member
- Joined
- 14 Dec 2017
- Messages
- 13,546
it's not defeatist it's putting a considered balanced view on things, no point just focussing on just what we can do without looking at the bigger picture..as i've said this last month or so we have made things more difficult for ourselves and sadly we can't afford to drop many more pts and still have to hope that 2/3/4/ or even 5 slip up.
Think ahead to if you were Wycombe,Coventry,Pompey you would be very happy to take a pt against us which then makes it even harder with less games to go, so my friend it it is not just what we might get but more what we hope the others don't.
My little negative friend! You talk about putting a balanced view on things, but always put far greater emphasis on the worse case scenario, so whilst I may be optimistic there is nothing balanced about your view.
Rotherham and Coventry are averaging around 1.9 points per game and if they maintain that they'll be in the top 2.
Most of the teams around the playoff positions are averaging between 1.6 and 1.75 points per game. So if teams maintain the same kind of form they have you could expect to see the point total for 6th being around 72/73 points. This doesn't need teams to slip up, just continue as they have so far. Of course some could do better, some might do worse, only time will tell.
But the one thing we can focus on is our performance. We have 12 games to go, and many of these are very winnable.
Accrington, Southend, Shrewsbury, MK Dons should give 10-12 points.
Then Wycombe and Portsmouth. Let's say 2-4 points.
Follow this with Rochdale and Bristol Rovers where the target must be 4-6 points.
Coventry and Fleetwood are much harder and it could be a lose and a draw or maybe 2 draws. 1-2 points.
We then finish with Tranmere and Bolton and I'll take nothing less than 2 wins. 6 points.
So that is 23-30 points to play for. Giving us a total of 74-81 points. That's enough for play off places most seasons let alone a season with 2 games short.
So no guarantees, but absolutely no reason why we should throw the towel in already.