I dont want to worry anyone but.....

#1
I've run some predictions using FM, used some player updates and form adjustements....

Its a worrying run in..UNLESS our form changes dramatically. Perhaps someone at OUFC spotted the trend too, but here it is.

We should win games vs Brizzle, Plymouth, Northampton and Oldham.

we're likely to get draws vs Charlton, Wimbledon, Peterborough and Doncaster.

We're also likely to lose the following remaining games. Blackburn, Wigan, Rochdale, Shrewsbury, Scunthorpe, Portsmouth, Fleetwood and Rotherham

With a level of adjustement on a few of these results Oxford, in this model, end up with between 13 and 16 more points.

It's all what ifs, hows and maybes - forecasting is never an exact science BUT, unless we'd had that management change, a finishing range of 51 to 54 points is not a comfortable place for us to be at the end of the season.

If we can gain a few bonus results in draws or wins vs the predicted losses, we will be in a better place.
 
#3
I had my concerns 3 months ago & wrote the following on the old forum 4th November.


When we're good we're very good, and when we're bad we're horrid.

Mid table team at best, not enough pace in the team, too much quantity and not enough quality in the squad.

I'll be glad when we reach the 50 plus points mark.



I’m not trying to be clever, but even I ( just a fan) could see that the squad was too big, unbalanced & lacking in pace, & quality back in the beginning of November, talk of play-offs back then (even now:rolleyes:) was & is fantasy. I wonder when the alarm bells started to go off in the boardroom?

To see Appleton’s team completely dismantled & sold off is such a shame.
 
#4
I had my concerns 3 months ago & wrote the following on the old forum 4th November.


When we're good we're very good, and when we're bad we're horrid.

Mid table team at best, not enough pace in the team, too much quantity and not enough quality in the squad.

I'll be glad when we reach the 50 plus points mark.


I’m not trying to be clever, but even I ( just a fan) could see that the squad was too big, unbalanced & lacking in pace, & quality back in the beginning of November, talk of play-offs back then (even now:rolleyes:) was & is fantasy. I wonder when the alarm bells started to go off in the boardroom?

To see Appleton’s team completely dismantled & sold off is such a shame.
You should do the national lottery this weekend , you are bound to win.
 
#5
It’s not a kind run of fixtures, with the way we are playing at the moment it’s hard to see us picking up many points at all so the opening poster could be accused of being kind. But with a new manager in and a couple of new signings, plus hopefully get a couple of players back from injury we should still be able to stay up.

The important thing on the player recruitment for me is to bring in quality players in the right positions, I would rather bring in a good quality, mobile right back and a good quality mobile left winger and do a Clotet and bring in loads of s**t players where we already have them. The reason we can’t even field a team that makes sense at the moment is we don’t have players for those two positions, the side has no balance. If we could turn a huge weakness into a strength we might be able to put out a side with some shape and balance, while also adding width to a side that has none.
 
#8
I've run some predictions using FM, used some player updates and form adjustements....

Its a worrying run in..UNLESS our form changes dramatically. Perhaps someone at OUFC spotted the trend too, but here it is.

We should win games vs Brizzle, Plymouth, Northampton and Oldham.

we're likely to get draws vs Charlton, Wimbledon, Peterborough and Doncaster.

We're also likely to lose the following remaining games. Blackburn, Wigan, Rochdale, Shrewsbury, Scunthorpe, Portsmouth, Fleetwood and Rotherham

With a level of adjustement on a few of these results Oxford, in this model, end up with between 13 and 16 more points.

It's all what ifs, hows and maybes - forecasting is never an exact science BUT, unless we'd had that management change, a finishing range of 51 to 54 points is not a comfortable place for us to be at the end of the season.

If we can gain a few bonus results in draws or wins vs the predicted losses, we will be in a better place.
Thanks for this SwissYellow. I'll let you into a secret, I was already ch*ffing worried...
 
#9
I've run some predictions using FM, used some player updates and form adjustements....

Its a worrying run in..UNLESS our form changes dramatically. Perhaps someone at OUFC spotted the trend too, but here it is.

We should win games vs Brizzle, Plymouth, Northampton and Oldham.

we're likely to get draws vs Charlton, Wimbledon, Peterborough and Doncaster.

We're also likely to lose the following remaining games. Blackburn, Wigan, Rochdale, Shrewsbury, Scunthorpe, Portsmouth, Fleetwood and Rotherham

With a level of adjustement on a few of these results Oxford, in this model, end up with between 13 and 16 more points.

It's all what ifs, hows and maybes - forecasting is never an exact science BUT, unless we'd had that management change, a finishing range of 51 to 54 points is not a comfortable place for us to be at the end of the season.

If we can gain a few bonus results in draws or wins vs the predicted losses, we will be in a better place.
What about Southend (H) and Rochdale (H) ? Both have poor away records, so should be ....? ....? ...
Also still got Rotherham (A)
 

Oldham

Well-known member
#17
For all the dross we’ve served up thus far we are actually joint 5th top scorers! However that obviously counts for nothing considering the amount of goals we’ve conceded. If the teams below us all win their games in hand we will be right in the dog fight and that is when we need strong characters to shine through on the pitch, so stand up er, um, oh dear!....
 

Gary Baldi

Well-known member
#18
For all the dross we’ve served up thus far we are actually joint 5th top scorers! However that obviously counts for nothing considering the amount of goals we’ve conceded. If the teams below us all win their games in hand we will be right in the dog fight and that is when we need strong characters to shine through on the pitch, so stand up er, um, oh dear!....
Perception vs reality right there!
 
#19
Update on this is that

We didnt beat Brizzle or Plymouth but beat Charlton, this gives us 9 more points from our closing games giving us a total of 50 points.

Here was the prediction from a month ago:

We should win games vs Brizzle, Plymouth, Northampton and Oldham

we're likely to get draws vs Charlton, Wimbledon, Peterborough and Doncaster.

We're also likely to lose the following remaining games. Blackburn, Wigan, Rochdale, Shrewsbury, Scunthorpe, Portsmouth, Fleetwood and Rotherham
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I re-did the prediction today and it came out as follows:

Win: Rochdale & Oldham

Draw Northampton, Wimbledon, Peterborough, Doncaster, Pompey and Fleetwood

Losing: Blackburn, Wigan, Shrews and Scunny

12 points and 53 in total, which should be safe.
 
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