Fan's View Fan's View 21/22 - no.30 - Wycombe away

Oxford57

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Thank you , a very well written article , and full of some really valid points
 

Jon-ioualways

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Thank you , a very well written article , and full of some really valid points
I couldn't agree more.

Thanks so much for taking the time, Paul, week in and week out. It was depressing to read this week, but I wouldn't miss your write-ups for the world. And please don't feel the need to apologize for writing at length.
 

CheltenhamYellow

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Great to read another balanced report, without the tedious exclamations of those contributors on this forum who consistently maintain everything is fine really. And if you say otherwise you are a negative moaner.
There is plenty to be worried about currently and it’s hard not to conclude that our season has turned a corner (the Cheltenham match started this) and the rest will be an uphill struggle. No, we are not suddenly a poor team, but it is infuriating how naive KR can be with his tactics when a little more common sense and adaptation is required. We have played some lovely football this season, but always against weaker teams (again: when did we last beat a side above us in the table?!) and at our best are great to watch.
My biggest fear, though, is the transfer window and the lack of potential to improve the squad. I hope I’m wrong but KR seems to be suggesting not much will be happening in this respect. Pre-season we missed the opportunity to get in those players we needed (it doesn’t need me to repeat those positions) and January rarely brings necessary solutions. We will lose Cam almost certainly and possibly someone else, and (sorry Baz) there will be no prolific goalscorer to replace our two useless forwards, and complement Taylor.
I can’t help thinking KR has ensured another “what might have been” season.
I hope I’m wrong.
 

unification

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Fine read as always, Paul. It's good to see the pages of waffle on here condensed into a much shorter read even if you don't seem to think so.

What we should say about this season thus far is that is the first time we have lost back to back league games this season which is not too bad going. Even teams that win the league on occasion experience that. However, it's when a couple of defeats manifests itself into a 'block' of five to eight games that it becomes derailing for promotion hopes. I've posted our league form from 2019 onwards for each gameweek below and squared the bad patches.

Capture.JPG

Like in cricket you should never aim to lose wickets in clusters, you should never look to have spells of back-to-back defeats yet our last two playoff campaigns have seen such spells. Unsurprisingly, the spells of defeats were worse in 2020-21 when we finished 6th than in 2019-20 where we finished higher up in 3rd (4th after PPG recalculation) but have them we did. It's what separates us from the top two year on year. Hull last season had some wobbly moments including losing three league games in a row at one point but they also had four spells of winning four matches in a row - 16 of their wins came from unbeaten, one after the other wins. You have to be brutal and recover quickly from these rough patches. Under KR, they tend to fester for a few too many games.

Whilst a defeat at Wycombe won't define our season, I can see it being part of a typical-KR-style mini-slump that sees us out of the autos-race altogether. Once again, I repeat myself - KR is a good manager, not a great one and we need great in order to be promoted.
 

horseman

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Great to read another balanced report, without the tedious exclamations of those contributors on this forum who consistently maintain everything is fine really. And if you say otherwise you are a negative moaner.
There is plenty to be worried about currently and it’s hard not to conclude that our season has turned a corner (the Cheltenham match started this) and the rest will be an uphill struggle. No, we are not suddenly a poor team, but it is infuriating how naive KR can be with his tactics when a little more common sense and adaptation is required. We have played some lovely football this season, but always against weaker teams (again: when did we last beat a side above us in the table?!) and at our best are great to watch.
My biggest fear, though, is the transfer window and the lack of potential to improve the squad. I hope I’m wrong but KR seems to be suggesting not much will be happening in this respect. Pre-season we missed the opportunity to get in those players we needed (it doesn’t need me to repeat those positions) and January rarely brings necessary solutions. We will lose Cam almost certainly and possibly someone else, and (sorry Baz) there will be no prolific goalscorer to replace our two useless forwards, and complement Taylor.
I can’t help thinking KR has ensured another “what might have been” season.
I hope I’m wrong.
Not sure why certain things need repeating but you don't have to beat the teams above you to go up, it's about accumulating enough pts regardless of the opposition.just for the record we have beaten MK Dons away drawn with both Sunderland and Rotherham (umm so they haven't beat us either) but they've accumulated more pts. We lost to both Plymouth and Wigan in games that could have gone either way so it becomes a weak argument imho.

it amazes me that despite the wonderful football on show most weeks that some fans dismiss our wins with throw away comments like the opposition were shite.

Look at it how you wish but since the restructering of the game and introducing Play Offs you can be 20+ pts behind top 2 and still get promoted so it matters not how you got there.

The powers that be have introduced a system where winning something is no more different that not, the likes of Arsenal West Ham etc don't care that Man City or Liverpool walk away with the league just as long as they finish in at least 4th and get all that follows by doing so. You then have virtual the same scenario in every league below where winning the league brings the same as 2nd/3rd or via a play off.
 

horseman

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You do if you finish in the playoffs.
Depends which place you finish :unsure: a 3rd place finish you can only play those below. finish 4th you can beat 5th and 6th and 5th can beat 6th......either in semi or final.
 

Paul B

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Fine read as always, Paul. It's good to see the pages of waffle on here condensed into a much shorter read even if you don't seem to think so.

What we should say about this season thus far is that is the first time we have lost back to back league games this season which is not too bad going. Even teams that win the league on occasion experience that. However, it's when a couple of defeats manifests itself into a 'block' of five to eight games that it becomes derailing for promotion hopes. I've posted our league form from 2019 onwards for each gameweek below and squared the bad patches.

View attachment 7855

Like in cricket you should never aim to lose wickets in clusters, you should never look to have spells of back-to-back defeats yet our last two playoff campaigns have seen such spells. Unsurprisingly, the spells of defeats were worse in 2020-21 when we finished 6th than in 2019-20 where we finished higher up in 3rd (4th after PPG recalculation) but have them we did. It's what separates us from the top two year on year. Hull last season had some wobbly moments including losing three league games in a row at one point but they also had four spells of winning four matches in a row - 16 of their wins came from unbeaten, one after the other wins. You have to be brutal and recover quickly from these rough patches. Under KR, they tend to fester for a few too many games.

Whilst a defeat at Wycombe won't define our season, I can see it being part of a typical-KR-style mini-slump that sees us out of the autos-race altogether. Once again, I repeat myself - KR is a good manager, not a great one and we need great in order to be promoted.
A great post. I know from experience that this sort of analysis takes time to undertake. It's not just the form as defined by points lost but the way a team is playing and thus seems to be heading. I don't think we ever really looked like beating Lincoln or Wycombe. Cheltenham, perhaps in the last few minutes but given where each of us sits in the League it should never have got to that situation having to rely on an equaliser in the 82nd minute.
 

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