Have been having a play around this morning with some hypothetical scouting...for left back. Seeing if there is any possibility of us finding someone that is an upgrade on ruffels. Caveat: in no way am I a pro at this and I'm sure that there is plenty wrong, but thought it would be fun to find a *logical* process using numbers.
Firstly...what is the Oxford style of play under Robinson? In short: ball carrying!
Whyte (7.99 p90)/Browne (8.96 p90)/Holmes (8.76 p90) in the top 15 ball carriers in the league add to this that Baptiste is in top 20 for successful dribbles (off 638 minutes - limited data so alway cautious) shows that we have a preferred style. Add to this Holmes/Browne/Baptiste/Norman in top 10 for fouls suffered p90 - enforces above teams have opted to take us down in the dribbling situations.
Next...what do the ball carriers do aside from running with it?
From the right, Whyte/Henry/Mcmahon are (were!) prevalent crossers…from the left rely on crosses from Holmes (only played 48% of available minutes). Both Holmes and Browne have high volume shots (3.24 & 2.56 per game with xG p90 of 0.23 & 0.19 respectively).
So we have a direct, ball carrying style that from the right usually results in a cross, from the left results in shots/attempts.
So, whats the role of the LB in the above?
To get the ball to the wingers! If they can also join the attacks with overlaps/crosses/dribbles also then bonus time.
Lets go shopping:
Firstly, some filters. I initially filtered by players in league 1 and 2 that have played over 900 minutes so far this season including the left back role - total being 113.
Next, to filter by age. Full backs peak at the age of 26 and with shorter contracts being the norm in the lower leagues is sorted by 26 and under. We were left with 40 players:
View attachment 995
Now, to further filter I started looking at those that crop up regularly on the Passes p90, Crosses p90 and Dribbles p90. Players that appeared in all 3:
- Pickering
- Butler
- Benning
- Smith-Brown
- Borthwick-Jackson
- Bola
From here, the next logical step seemed to be checking the availability.
- Pickering - contract until 2021
- Butler - Contract expires summer 2019
- Benning - Contract expires summer 2019
- Smith-Brown - just signed for Plymouth
- Borthwick-Jackson - on loan from Man Utd..possible contract until 2021
- Bola - summer 2019 wit 1 year extension
So the options we have: Pickering the best of the bunch at 20, but the expensive option. Borthwick-Jackson and Smith-Brown ruled out, Bola cheaper than Pickering, Butler and Benning could possibly obtain on a pre-contract.
Here is the Dan Butler chart
View attachment 996
In the top 85% (out of the 40 players assessed) for xA, Passes p90, Crosses p90 and Cross success %. Also rating highly on dribble metrics.
Obvious concern around the level, if this could translate to league 1, the defensive elements (haven't looked much in to this).
I would imagine this could be used along with traditional scouting, references, watching the player etc...but a fun way of finding those players that could possibly fit in to the squad.