Data bits

Shosho

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A few bits to catch up on:

Having not been able to travel to Peterborough we looked to match them. Dembele looked to be the key player offensively for Peterborough...he is one of the top ball carriers in the league along with Marcus Browne and Onyedinma (I seem to remember us being linked with him?).

I have been down playing peterbrough for a while as their conversion has been ridiculous along with generally conceding a higher xG and more shots. However, for Oxford to go behind twice and come back is a good result. The link between Ruffels and Browne continues to grow with Brannagan instrumental in picking the ball up off the CBs/Mousinho. To my mind, Brannagan/Mousinho and Henry are instrumental in our turn in form.

Have already talked up Brannagan with is passing, however Mousinho has now established himself as one of the top defensive midfielders in the league.

Mousinho has won nearly 33% of his defensive duels (most in the league), he's involved in nearly 10 aerial duels per 90mins (3rd most in the league), winning 61% (5th in the league) along with 6 interceptions per match (14th best in the league). All of the above are based on Centre midfielders that have played over 1000 minutes this season.

Mousinho doesn't simply defend with 38 passes a match, 16 of which forwards. Mousinho is instrumental in breaking up play and progressing the ball (mostly to Brannagan).

Secondly, James Henry. Obviously on a pretty hot streak at the minute, however the numbers show how influencial he is. 0.27 non penalty goals per 90, an xG per 90 of 0.39, 2.39 shots per 90 and 0.12 xA (expected assists) per 90. All of the above put Henry in the top 10 for attacking midfielders in league 1. Twin the above with Henry's defensive numbers and the fact he has started to play more of a midfield role and he is looking impressive (aside from being handy on penalties!)

Finally Blackpool. Instead of looking at the style etc I will look at players that could possibly be good acquisitions for Oxford (the excitement of January transfers!! (HMRC etc aside).

Curtis Tilt:
Preparing for Nelson possibly leaving, Tilt looks like a sensible addition. 27, out of contract in the summer and plays left side CB. Comes high on pretty much every defensive metric, aerially, interceptions etc (Dickie performs well here also). He has the highest xG for CBs in the league (Nelson in second!), so is an attacking threat too. Tilt looks a good replacement for Nelson should he leave.

Marc Bola:
21, out of contract in the summer, LB. Looking at a Ruffels upgrade, Bola looks to be a good prospect. Currently at 0.15 xA per 90 (more than James Henry) and 9th for crosses per 90 along with 2.3 dribbles per 90. Bola is clearly a good attacking LB, however defensively he looks to intercept rather than defend 1v1. Will be a good battle against (presumably, Whyte).

Jordan Thompson:
21, out of contract in 2020, represented by New Era, attacking midfielder. A good xG per 90, however looks to be one of the best midfield creators in the league. Certainly looks to be the primary attacking threat with Bola and Turton (plays RB).

All 3 of the above will be worth watching and look to be solid acquisitions in positions we require from a squad building perspective.
 

Foley

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So....Blackpool are doing pretty well.
Thoughts on that game?
 

Shosho

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So....Blackpool are doing pretty well.
Thoughts on that game?
Have taken a quick look!

Firstly, Blackpool 'should' have conceded more than they have (only conceded 19, third best in the league behind Sunderland and Barnsley). That certainly goes some way to a good league position...in terms of numbers they are pretty average on most metrics, slightly high on conversion (around 32% of shots on target scored).

Primarily playing 4-2-3-1, however in the last 3 games have played 3 at the back with a 3-5-2 or 3-4-1-2.

Bola playing wing back, with Thompson playing behind the strikers. In terms of attacking creativity Thompson, Bola and Delfouneso have the most xA, with Delfouneso, Gnanduillet, and Thompson having the highest xG (CB, Tilt in 4th!).

Style of play - having not seen Blackpool play and going purely off numbers, it looks they like to go long!

Gnanduillet competes in nearly 20 headers a match, with 8 players having an average pass length over 20m...the GK (Howard) has an average pass length of nearly 50m!

In the last 5 matches the most common forward pass has been from Howard to Gnanduillet...I think that highlights how Blackpool might play!

If the ball is on the floor Thompson is the player that makes them tick, Spearing will have a good battle in the midfield! I would expect our CBs to have a good fight with Gnanduillet, Dickie in particular in one of the best defenders aerially in the league.

As above, Bola, Tilt and Thompson will be worth a watch...both Bola and Tilt in position we may need strengthening. Heneghan at the back will also be interesting after being highly rated in Scotland and moving to Sheffield United....is decent in the air but could expose him for pace if we can get Browne/Whyte up against him.
 
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Shosho

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So, something slightly different. Have seen a few bits online and primarily taken from statsbomb, some radars.

They are floored, however as a visual aid are pretty decent to see how individuals are performing. Initially, I've compared our 3 main wide players, Browne (yellow), Whyte (Black), Holmes (Blue). It's pretty handy to see where an individuals strengths are, also areas where they don't contribute. Pretty handy if you are looking at recruitment for a particular playing style and comparing players...

combine_images.jpg

We have 3 wingers that love to carry the ball! Homes the most successful along with the highest shot volume of the three. That being said, he has the lowest conversion so would indicate being a poor finisher, or attempting frequent shots from poor locations.

The other stand out is the difference in crossing. Holmes is the most frequent crosser, probably due to set pieces, however Browne has considerably less. This highlights when Browne gets the ball, he either attempts shots from good locations, or passes to players that then attempt shots from a good location (xA).

Not sure if anyone will find it interesting, but you can start to see differing styles in our wingers!
 

Shosho

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Cheers all. From getting in to the above in the summer I certainly look at matches differently.

No longer do I shout SHOOOOOOOT from 35 yards 🙈.

I might use some radars as possible scouting things to play about with coming up to January. Will also see how Graham compares to the above (with the limited minutes he has!)
 

MJB

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Cheers all. From getting in to the above in the summer I certainly look at matches differently.

No longer do I shout SHOOOOOOOT from 35 yards .

I might use some radars as possible scouting things to play about with coming up to January. Will also see how Graham compares to the above (with the limited minutes he has!)
So are you the lone voice I can hear in amongst the ‘Shooooooot’s who’s shouting ‘Before you shoooooot, first consider your options to retain possession and some triangle link up play to get a clearer sight of the taaaaarget’?
 

Shosho

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Ok, so have been off the grid a little over Christmas but saw the home matches, watched Plymouth on iFollow and was at Brentford so have seen a fair bit of our ropey form.

Firstly, our first team, as expected, has been run into the ground...especially Browne/Mackie/Whyte/Henry and probably points a fair bit towards the drop in form.

Screenshot 2019-01-07 at 13.16.40.png

The first 11 picks itself from Hanson up...Mackie, I'm sure wasn't bought in to play so many minutes and be the primary striker. This is obviously in part to the Obika injury, but also due to Smith not being fancied (correct decision? Look below...). Whyte has also accrued heavy minutes for his first season full time. Once again, I'm sure the intention wasn't to rely so heavily.

Holmes is the only player, on loan (aside from Browne) that has built serious minutes. Twin this with players we have signed, Mcmahon and Norman, and the squad is pretty thread bare.

The real concern now, and has been throughout the season is the lack of quality chances that we create. This has been shown up over Christmas. When was the last time we scored a tap in? Many of the goals we scored prior to Christmas have been from range, carrying low probabilities...rather unsurprisingly this has dried up.

Secondly, below is the xG and xA for each player at the club per 90. This may be an unpopular opinion however the minutes Obika played amassed some decent chances (need to look at how this was distributed). You can see the reliance on Henry both from a goal scoring perspective along with a creative one. The burn out of Henry has obviously been detrimental based on his hot form prior to Christmas.

The other thing to note is the contribution of Holmes. When playing, Holmes gains and creates chances. Other take aways include:

- Both Carruthers and Norman contribute creatively
- Smith had a better xG per 90 than Mackie
- Baptiste will be influential when fit (sad face)
- Browne is having big season...Whyte isn't far off.
- nelson has the highest xG of all CBs in the league. If he leaves, we not only lose a decent defender, but also an attacking threat.

Screenshot 2019-01-07 at 13.27.27.png

Something a bit different, hopefully it makes sense (yay for excel)
 

AscotYellow

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this is great, can i ask if this is just league games or is Smith Checkatrade games included?
 

Shosho

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Have been having a play around this morning with some hypothetical scouting...for left back. Seeing if there is any possibility of us finding someone that is an upgrade on ruffels. Caveat: in no way am I a pro at this and I'm sure that there is plenty wrong, but thought it would be fun to find a *logical* process using numbers.

Firstly...what is the Oxford style of play under Robinson? In short: ball carrying!
Whyte (7.99 p90)/Browne (8.96 p90)/Holmes (8.76 p90) in the top 15 ball carriers in the league add to this that Baptiste is in top 20 for successful dribbles (off 638 minutes - limited data so alway cautious) shows that we have a preferred style. Add to this Holmes/Browne/Baptiste/Norman in top 10 for fouls suffered p90 - enforces above teams have opted to take us down in the dribbling situations.

Next...what do the ball carriers do aside from running with it?
From the right, Whyte/Henry/Mcmahon are (were!) prevalent crossers…from the left rely on crosses from Holmes (only played 48% of available minutes). Both Holmes and Browne have high volume shots (3.24 & 2.56 per game with xG p90 of 0.23 & 0.19 respectively).

So we have a direct, ball carrying style that from the right usually results in a cross, from the left results in shots/attempts.

So, whats the role of the LB in the above?
To get the ball to the wingers! If they can also join the attacks with overlaps/crosses/dribbles also then bonus time.

Lets go shopping:

Firstly, some filters. I initially filtered by players in league 1 and 2 that have played over 900 minutes so far this season including the left back role - total being 113.

Next, to filter by age. Full backs peak at the age of 26 and with shorter contracts being the norm in the lower leagues is sorted by 26 and under. We were left with 40 players:

Screenshot 2019-01-08 at 13.06.19.png

Now, to further filter I started looking at those that crop up regularly on the Passes p90, Crosses p90 and Dribbles p90. Players that appeared in all 3:
- Pickering
- Butler
- Benning
- Smith-Brown
- Borthwick-Jackson
- Bola

From here, the next logical step seemed to be checking the availability.
- Pickering - contract until 2021
- Butler - Contract expires summer 2019
- Benning - Contract expires summer 2019
- Smith-Brown - just signed for Plymouth
- Borthwick-Jackson - on loan from Man Utd..possible contract until 2021
- Bola - summer 2019 wit 1 year extension

So the options we have: Pickering the best of the bunch at 20, but the expensive option. Borthwick-Jackson and Smith-Brown ruled out, Bola cheaper than Pickering, Butler and Benning could possibly obtain on a pre-contract.

Here is the Dan Butler chart

Screenshot 2019-01-08 at 12.33.24.png
In the top 85% (out of the 40 players assessed) for xA, Passes p90, Crosses p90 and Cross success %. Also rating highly on dribble metrics.

Obvious concern around the level, if this could translate to league 1, the defensive elements (haven't looked much in to this).

I would imagine this could be used along with traditional scouting, references, watching the player etc...but a fun way of finding those players that could possibly fit in to the squad.
 
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Shosho

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Weirdly seems to be some talk around us being interested in Butler...now to search for some strikers and holding midfielder 😂
 

Shosho

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Have been pretty busy so missed adding to this but quickly have some time ahead of tomorrow.

Firstly...the match vs Burton:

Screenshot 2019-02-08 at 09.48.54.png

Thats a hammering...even in the first 11 mins when the teams were even we were the better team. We had our bigger chances in the second half, mainly around 80minutes. Our biggest chances of the game fell to Nelson on 13mins, Dickie on 24mins and Ruffels on 80mins. A very obvious conclusion (without watching the match back) is that we seemingly created our best chances from set pieces (happy to be wrong on this!). Not ideal vs 10 men.


Screenshot 2019-02-08 at 09.52.17.png

That cluster around the centre of the 6 yard box is the areas we will ideally be making attempts from, however, once again, they are all falling to our CBs...which probably tells us a fair bit about our set piece strategy.

To move on to our game plan...crossing. We obviously have exciting players that can carry the ball, however if our tactic is for them to then cross, we are promoting something that is fundamentally inefficient. Below, all our crosses from open play:

Screenshot 2019-02-08 at 09.58.47.png

Again, we are crossing in to good areas but a majority result in a turn over...we would probably be best suited looking for cut backs instead. We have players (Henry/Brannaga etc) that would beneift from the ball along the floor along with being a tougher proposal for the defence.
 

Shosho

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On to Sunderland tomorrow...

Many have been saying for a while that going by the xG Sunderland are hugely out performing. Part of this was down to Maja converting over 70% of hits shots on target! NTT20 have taken some hits for suggesting a Sunderland fall may not be far away and with Maja leaving they have a pretty big, over performing gap to fill.

Looking at the, at home, Vs Wimbledon from the weekend the above may be supported...

Screenshot 2019-02-08 at 10.05.56.png

Wimbledon created the better chances and having quickly watched the highlights most came from set pieces. Sunderland have scored 11 goals above what they 'should' along with conceding 10 less than they 'should'. This is something that over time you would expect to drop and we may be seeing the start of that.

The bookies have us as narrow favourites tomorrow so they clearly aren't confident in Sunderland either.

Set pieces look to play a big part tomorrow, lets hope all those chances that keep falling to Nelson and Dickie get converted!

As an aside, its interesting to see some of our corner routines at the minute...have said on other threads but this is something that is hugely under used. If we could create a set piece schedule that enabled us to score 15 goals a season (score 1 in every 3 matches) that would be the expectation of a striker...but without the hefty fee that would be attached. In essence, some time on set pieces would be cheaper, a possibly more lucrative than spending big on a striker
 

Smilingbo

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Everyone likes good stats....but I think you may need to make it clear if you are using analysis created by others. There's definitely stuff from experimental 361 in your most recent posts
 

Foley

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Good one Shosho.
You mention set pieces. We seemed to be very dangerous from set pieces against Barnsley but not against Burton.
From my observation the delivery was better v Barnsley and Burton defended far better.
Good news that Wimbledon seem to have caused lots if problems.
 
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