Data bits

[MarkG]

Do we need to play more long balls?

Are Northampton Town a 'long ball' team compared to Lincoln City, Oxford United and Crewe?

The 2020/21 League One season is now firmly underway with talk turning towards third-tier sides and how they play.

www.northamptonchron.co.uk

 

[MarkG]

and slightly off topic, but a big Home Office banning orders spreadsheet published today

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/920217/football-related-arrests-banning-orders-1920-hosb2720-tables.ods

 

[gingerox]

Interestingly, we 'won' on expected goals again yesterday (largely helped by Henry's penalty but still), moving us up to 6th in a xG table, meaning we're currently the biggest outlier in terms of difference in position across all four divisions. With our two games in hand means we'd be top of a PPG (xG) league as well.

I'm no expert with this kind of stuff, and I'd say its still quite a small sample to make any certain conclusions from so far, but thought I'd post this for a bit of optimism

 

[Benox]

The stats for league 1 this season make our league position slightly baffling. Well maybe not baffling, but highlight that if you don’t take your chances & make defensive mistakes you get heavily punished.

Only 5 teams this season have faced less shots per match than us. Only 2 teams have had more shots per match than us. So it suggests we create a lot & are fairly solid. But take that on a step and we are by far the most wasteful team in the league averaging over 14 shots for every goal we score. Peterborough average the same number of shots per game as us but currently score a goal every 7 shots.

Defensively it doesn’t get any less frustrating. Only 5 teams have conceded less shots per game than us. But we concede on average every 5 shots, which is the worst in the league alongside MK Dons. So a goal scored every 14 shots, a goal against every 5. Not hard to see why we’re not winning games.

If you take that a step further & look at expected goals (so actually looking at the quality of those opportunities) we again sit alongside other teams who’ve had a strong start to the season (Hull, Lincoln, Peterborough all pretty closely matched to us). We should score more than we concede, but clearly we’re not.

The only conclusion I can really draw is that we’re not taking our chances & making defensive/goalkeeping errors. All the stats would say we’re a good side.

Slightly baffling, but cause for optimism perhaps. Things can’t continue that way forever, you’d hope.

 

[Shaun Rice]

The stats for league 1 this season make our league position slightly baffling. Well maybe not baffling, but highlight that if you don’t take your chances & make defensive mistakes you get heavily punished.

Only 5 teams this season have faced less shots per match than us. Only 2 teams have had more shots per match than us. So it suggests we create a lot & are fairly solid. But take that on a step and we are by far the most wasteful team in the league averaging over 14 shots for every goal we score. Peterborough average the same number of shots per game as us but currently score a goal every 7 shots.

Defensively it doesn’t get any less frustrating. Only 5 teams have conceded less shots per game than us. But we concede on average every 5 shots, which is the worst in the league alongside MK Dons. So a goal scored every 14 shots, a goal against every 5. Not hard to see why we’re not winning games.

If you take that a step further & look at expected goals (so actually looking at the quality of those opportunities) we again sit alongside other teams who’ve had a strong start to the season (Hull, Lincoln, Peterborough all pretty closely matched to us). We should score more than we concede, but clearly we’re not.

The only conclusion I can really draw is that we’re not taking our chances & making defensive/goalkeeping errors. All the stats would say we’re a good side.

Slightly baffling, but cause for optimism perhaps. Things can’t continue that way forever, you’d hope.

It’s not really baffling. In order to win matches and therefore gain points you have to score more goals than your opponents.
We let in sloppy goals and need about 10 chances to score 1 goal. ;-)

 

[Shosho]

The stats for league 1 this season make our league position slightly baffling. Well maybe not baffling, but highlight that if you don’t take your chances & make defensive mistakes you get heavily punished.

Only 5 teams this season have faced less shots per match than us. Only 2 teams have had more shots per match than us. So it suggests we create a lot & are fairly solid. But take that on a step and we are by far the most wasteful team in the league averaging over 14 shots for every goal we score. Peterborough average the same number of shots per game as us but currently score a goal every 7 shots.

Defensively it doesn’t get any less frustrating. Only 5 teams have conceded less shots per game than us. But we concede on average every 5 shots, which is the worst in the league alongside MK Dons. So a goal scored every 14 shots, a goal against every 5. Not hard to see why we’re not winning games.

If you take that a step further & look at expected goals (so actually looking at the quality of those opportunities) we again sit alongside other teams who’ve had a strong start to the season (Hull, Lincoln, Peterborough all pretty closely matched to us). We should score more than we concede, but clearly we’re not.

The only conclusion I can really draw is that we’re not taking our chances & making defensive/goalkeeping errors. All the stats would say we’re a good side.

Slightly baffling, but cause for optimism perhaps. Things can’t continue that way forever, you’d hope.

We are in a weird situation...but one that I think will correct itself in the coming weeks. I had a quick play about looking at shots and creativity this afternoon. A few bits:



We are creating plenty, in decent positions...that stuff from range always frustrates me, but penalty spot inwards has plenty going on. Five goals conceded from outside the the box is annoying!

Looking at individual layer shots: Agyei is getting into great positions! Taylor in his usual back post spot, but is shooting more from range compared to last year



Creative passing: Henry and Forde leading the way, however Taylor again looks more involved in build up than last year



Looking at all passes into the box we are pretty lopsided on the right! Clare, Henry and Forde all delvering from this side...our main creator on the left being Ruffels!I love the position Sykes gets into on the byline!



Finally our main pass clusters when entering the box. This highlights possibly when we don't play with a #10 (although some chicken and the egg here) as we rarely progress the ball into the box via central areas relying on wide delivery. Cluster 3 is the key...the roll across the six yard box to the back post





I had a quick play about...I'm sure our fortune will change. If there any specific stuff anyone want to see I might be able to put it together!

 

[Oxford84]

How about average positions of our defenders?

 

[Benox]

We are in a weird situation...but one that I think will correct itself in the coming weeks. I had a quick play about looking at shots and creativity this afternoon. A few bits:

View attachment 4908

We are creating plenty, in decent positions...that stuff from range always frustrates me, but penalty spot inwards has plenty going on. Five goals conceded from outside the the box is annoying!

Looking at individual layer shots: Agyei is getting into great positions! Taylor in his usual back post spot, but is shooting more from range compared to last year

View attachment 4909

Creative passing: Henry and Forde leading the way, however Taylor again looks more involved in build up than last year

View attachment 4910

Looking at all passes into the box we are pretty lopsided on the right! Clare, Henry and Forde all delvering from this side...our main creator on the left being Ruffels!I love the position Sykes gets into on the byline!

View attachment 4911

Finally our main pass clusters when entering the box. This highlights possibly when we don't play with a #10 (although some chicken and the egg here) as we rarely progress the ball into the box via central areas relying on wide delivery. Cluster 3 is the key...the roll across the six yard box to the back post


View attachment 4912


I had a quick play about...I'm sure our fortune will change. If there any specific stuff anyone want to see I might be able to put it together!

OMG, I wish I’d have known about this thread sooner. I’ve been boring my friends about stat related chats for too long with blank expressions.

I completely agree that things will turn soon. I read far more into the data analysis than the league table at this stage. I’ve seen lots of criticism and suggestions that Clare & Henry should be dropped, but based on what you’ve posted they are far & away our most influential players when it comes to getting the ball in the opposition box. If only Clare could defend without his momentary loss of concentration (or just unfamiliarity with the RB position).

 

[Shropshire U]

Not sure why there is any grounds for optimism from these stats?
If we are getting into a significant number of positions to shoot and not converting it suggests incompetence. And ditto for the defence stats: we are conceding plenty of goals from a relatively small number of opposition chances.
One of the problems is that there is a world of difference between a "shot" and a "chance". The Gillingham game was typical. We seemed to have a lot of "shots" but they were routinely blocked within a yard of the shooter's boot!
We are not creating enough genuine "chances".
Sadly the only stats that matter are tucked away in the league table.

 

[ljs]

Lots of shots, but not many goals = players with lack of shooting skill?
Few opposition chances but lots of goals conceded = bad defenders?

Watching games to see the actual nuances of the play rather than hundreds of stats without knowing the actual circumstance of the stat is always more revealing (to me).

 

[Benox]

Not sure why there is any grounds for optimism from these stats?
If we are getting into a significant number of positions to shoot and not converting it suggests incompetence. And ditto for the defence stats: we are conceding plenty of goals from a relatively small number of opposition chances.
One of the problems is that there is a world of difference between a "shot" and a "chance". The Gillingham game was typical. We seemed to have a lot of "shots" but they were routinely blocked within a yard of the shooter's boot!
We are not creating enough genuine "chances".
Sadly the only stats that matter are tucked away in the league table.

It’s a fair point, it depends on how you interpret them. You’re spot on that shots don’t mean too much in isolation, that’s why expected goals is sometimes a better measure, because it takes into account the quality of a chance. So 15 shots from the half way line or ‘within a yard of the shooters boot’ as you put it isn’t going to score highly. When you look at expected goals league table (which has flaws, but try’s to pull together XG for & against into a league table format) there is no greater disparity in terms of league position & XG than Oxford. We’re in the top 25%.

So you are correct that it suggests poor performance (or ‘incompetence’), that’s exactly right. But the room for optimism for me is that it’s unlikely us missing good chances will persist over 46 games. If we were not creating any chances & conceding lots at the other end I’d be more concerned.

 

[Benox]

Lots of shots, but not many goals = players with lack of shooting skill?
Few opposition chances but lots of goals conceded = bad defenders?

Watching games to see the actual nuances of the play rather than hundreds of stats without knowing the actual circumstance of the stat is always more revealing (to me).

Yeah for sure, I study the games in great detail. Data alone can’t tell you everything. But think it’s useful to see what the data tells you alongside what you see yourself. Pretty much every professional club will be looking at it, it’s a massive part of the game & tells you stuff that you might not notice is significant. That’s why they spend a fortune on data analysts. I remember listening to Appleton on Sky Sports talking about his time at Oxford when he went into it in detail about the key measures that they tried to hit at Oxford because if they did, they’d have a high likelihood of winning the game. It’s just a part of the game that doesn’t get seen. But I know KR will be looking at them all.

 

[Oxford84]

Not sure why there is any grounds for optimism from these stats?
If we are getting into a significant number of positions to shoot and not converting it suggests incompetence. And ditto for the defence stats: we are conceding plenty of goals from a relatively small number of opposition chances.
One of the problems is that there is a world of difference between a "shot" and a "chance". The Gillingham game was typical. We seemed to have a lot of "shots" but they were routinely blocked within a yard of the shooter's boot!
We are not creating enough genuine "chances".
Sadly the only stats that matter are tucked away in the league table.

what it shows is that not too much difference is required to turn it around,if we were having no chances at all and conceding lots of chances it requires far more changes to put right.

 

[nige01ox]

Yeah for sure, I study the games in great detail. Data alone can’t tell you everything. But think it’s useful to see what the data tells you alongside what you see yourself. Pretty much every professional club will be looking at it, it’s a massive part of the game & tells you stuff that you might not notice is significant. That’s why they spend a fortune on data analysts. I remember listening to Appleton on Sky Sports talking about his time at Oxford when he went into it in detail about the key measures that they tried to hit at Oxford because if they did, they’d have a high likelihood of winning the game. It’s just a part of the game that doesn’t get seen. But I know KR will be looking at them all.

I don't doubt this is true, but to me that just makes it even more inconceivable that still recently KR was proclaiming he wanted another winger in as a priority, as opposed to defensive reinforcements. Chance creation was never, ever the issue.

 

[tonto]

So how many less points do we have this season than last season at the same stage?

 

[MarkG]

Couldn't find a better place to post this.
One of those prediction leagues has us ending up 5th, with 79 points. Only 3 points off 2nd, and 4 points clear of 7th.

League One Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's League One predictions

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Rotherham P**s the league with 89 points.

 

[Foley]

Also couldn't find a better place for this. 100 goals in the calendar year (only Man C, Liverpool and Man U have scored more)

 

[Foley]

Do you still do your analysis Shosho?
Anything interesting this season.

 

[Shosho]

Do you still do your analysis Shosho?
Anything interesting this season.

Hey!

Yeah now doing work with an agency that do opposition reports and player recruitment for teams in the EFL and Scotland.

Will see if I can dig anything out on Oxford this season of interest (main thing being the difference in set piece quality between last season and this, along with emphasis on cutbacks)

 

[MarkG]

Also couldn't find a better place for this. 100 goals in the calendar year (only Man C, Liverpool and Man U have scored more)

Does it say anywhere over how many games?
Obviously it's a good stat for us in absolute terms.