Shosho
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- 10 Dec 2017
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Big Roker report on data from Friday.
The Stat Man: Sunderland are barely on course to make the play-offs - and here’s why!
"Putting it plainly, no team in the last ten years has been automatically promoted from League One performing in the way Sunderland have done so far this season" writes RR’s resident stat man Steve Tiltman.rokerreport.sbnation.com
obviously focussing on Sunderland, but interesting to see where we are as it covers the whole league.
An interesting read! Just updated these this morning:
Both us and Peterborough scoring 10 goals above that which we would be expected to score based on the quality of the chances - this will fall in time and return closer to the xG...in short - we won't keep scoring like we have! Based on the chances we have created, we are mid-table.
In conjuction with scoring above the xG rate, we are also conceding above the xG rate. Goals conceded at the start was much higher, but this has fallen back in line (roughly!). Based on xG concededm we are mid-table once more.
Finally - xG difference. Positive number = create more quality chances, concede less. Negative = conceded higher quality chances than they create.
Once again, based on xG difference we are mid table.
By looking at the above we can see those which are under/over performing. We have hit a hot streak with our goal scoring - this is unsustainable, however even if we score at the xG rate we will be mid-table.
Matches coming up vs Doncaster/Rotherham/Portsmouth/Ipswich will be tough in the next few matches, however Southend look like a relegation candidate and Rochdale a bottom half time.