Data bits

Big Roker report on data from Friday.

obviously focussing on Sunderland, but interesting to see where we are as it covers the whole league.

An interesting read! Just updated these this morning:

Both us and Peterborough scoring 10 goals above that which we would be expected to score based on the quality of the chances - this will fall in time and return closer to the xG...in short - we won't keep scoring like we have! Based on the chances we have created, we are mid-table.

Screenshot 2019-10-07 at 12.31.15.png

In conjuction with scoring above the xG rate, we are also conceding above the xG rate. Goals conceded at the start was much higher, but this has fallen back in line (roughly!). Based on xG concededm we are mid-table once more.

Screenshot 2019-10-07 at 12.36.48.png

Finally - xG difference. Positive number = create more quality chances, concede less. Negative = conceded higher quality chances than they create.

Screenshot 2019-10-07 at 12.33.19.png

Once again, based on xG difference we are mid table.

By looking at the above we can see those which are under/over performing. We have hit a hot streak with our goal scoring - this is unsustainable, however even if we score at the xG rate we will be mid-table.

Matches coming up vs Doncaster/Rotherham/Portsmouth/Ipswich will be tough in the next few matches, however Southend look like a relegation candidate and Rochdale a bottom half time.
 
Great stuff - need to look at that fivethirtyeight model for the league prediction.

It’s an exciting time at oxford and analytics. I know a few players are currently being looked at by recruitment teams of championship clubs based on their numbers.

With the talent we have, we have a short window for success to encourage them to stay...I hope fivethirtyeight is right and we have a decent promotion push this year.

Ps - will get back to some of this analysis stuff next week if people have any particular stuff they want to know?
 
@Shosho hope you don't mind me posting these other links to data analysis in this thread, but seemed the best thread rather than starting a new one.

Not sure I understand the end of season probabilities on the 538 page. Make promotion play-offs is the total of the four probabilities of finishing 3rd to 7th. Winning league is obvious. Promoted is presumably some mix of the odds of coming first or second, and the odds of making and winning the play-offs. So for us (as of 7 October), 4% chance of first, 8% chance of second, plus I guess 34% chance of making play-offs => 10% chance of winning play-offs? = 22%?
 
@Shosho hope you don't mind me posting these other links to data analysis in this thread, but seemed the best thread rather than starting a new one.

Not sure I understand the end of season probabilities on the 538 page. Make promotion play-offs is the total of the four probabilities of finishing 3rd to 7th. Winning league is obvious. Promoted is presumably some mix of the odds of coming first or second, and the odds of making and winning the play-offs. So for us (as of 7 October), 4% chance of first, 8% chance of second, plus I guess 34% chance of making play-offs => 10% chance of winning play-offs? = 22%?

Absolutely not - I encourage it! Is a growing part of the game and can provide good insight and give us a true reflection of what’s going on.

?‍♂️ I presumed there was some performance metrics behind the probabilities - my own fault for not yet looking at the model definition however...will take a look in an hour!
 
https://www.whoscored.com/Regions/252/Tournaments/8/England-League-One look at League 1 team of the season. features Henry, Brannagan and Fosu

and https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/league-one/ have us to make the play-offs.

Model explanation ☺️


Does use xG etc
 
Had a little look at the squad usage so far this season - I think I might write a blog thing about it and its implications for recruitment etc

Screenshot 2019-10-14 at 11.26.06.png
 
What is the lighter blue bit? And who is the dot under Sykes?

It denotes when players are in their 'peak' - generally from 28 onwards you will see a drop in performance (obviously this doesn't apply to all players) but if you are a buying club or a selling one 22-26 is prime age.

Agyei is just below Sykes...playing about 2% of available league minutes
 
Have been working on this shot map for all shots taken so far this season (not including Rotherham)

deeper purple and bigger circle = higher xG
075AE015-49CF-4E54-8202-28D91CB31686.jpeg

As Brannagan has benefitted from Gorrin so much, here is how: all the shots Brannagan has assisted (inc. Rotherham)

16AF355A-9D98-42F3-8BBB-8E58F67978E1.jpeg

All shots taken by Brannagan:

6DCBFDB4-BB8F-436F-8325-858D19077140.jpeg

Finally, because it’s so amazing. All shots taken in the league for Matty Taylor...hope we can sign him in January:

75316AC4-29C4-4BE9-BF26-9A1FF078A359.jpeg
 
As you say Shosho, the Taylor shot map is amazing.
I read Taylor suggesting that he potentially scored fewer at Bristol City as he was played deeper. His shot map shows where he tends to get his shots in.
We used to have an awful lot of crosses and not nake the most of them. Presumably with players such as Taylor we are getting on the end of a lot more of the crosses?
 
I don’t think I’ve man crushed on a player as hard as I do Taylor since gorgeous George. He might not be as conventionally handsome (who is?) but he makes me feel all funny.
 
Are these statistics not skewed by the teams we and others have played. Alll Ipswich's victories bar one and a high percentage of their games have been against bottom half teams. In fact we have played against more top half teams than all teams bar Doncaster in the top 10. We have played 9 games against top 10 along with Doncaster. Most have only played 5 or 6. Also we have played two more games away than at home. These facts suggest our statistics could improve further.
 
Are these statistics not skewed by the teams we and others have played. Alll Ipswich's victories bar one and a high percentage of their games have been against bottom half teams. In fact we have played against more top half teams than all teams bar Doncaster in the top 10. We have played 9 games against top 10 along with Doncaster. Most have only played 5 or 6. Also we have played two more games away than at home. These facts suggest our statistics could improve further.

which are you referring to? We all play the same games...we’ve had a tricky start but makes our form more impressive
 
which are you referring to? We all play the same games...we’ve had a tricky start but makes our form more impressive
Apologies, I had just read the article that Markg had put up based primarily on Sunderlands poor start but at the same time deriding our chances of continuing our positive position. I also noted somewhere above it is suggested we will 'fall back into the pack'. However with potentially easier games to come our stats should improve further so we would be less likely to go backwards or that our impressive statistics will falter.
 
Apologies, I had just read the article that Markg had put up based primarily on Sunderlands poor start but at the same time deriding our chances of continuing our positive position. I also noted somewhere above it is suggested we will 'fall back into the pack'. However with potentially easier games to come our stats should improve further so we would be less likely to go backwards or that our impressive statistics will falter.

No problem! The next few matches, Rochdale/Sunderland/Portsmouth/Ipswich/Southend all looking pretty big...a serious month coming up!
 
I'm glad I just go to games and can see when we are playing well and playing crap. Then just look at the league table to see our chances of promotion, or not.
 
Funny looking back through this thread and some of the finds that were good...some a little off the mark!

Highlighting Steven Alzate who was on loan at Swindon and now starts for Brighton is probably the highlight...also said Brannagan was about to have a big season :LOL:

Anyway, looking ahead to January and any business we might do (now we have loads of cup money). Our primary concern will be holding on to the squad as we are being watched by a lot of teams from higher up the pyramid. Having the team challenging around the play offs will help though!

Both Dickie and Brannagan are the two main assets - with an obvious gap when Cadden leaves (I know Long can step in, will probably still need someone else to come in at RB).

Will just have a look at Midfielders:

Herbie Kane

One of the stand out midfielders last season with Alex Mowatt and Krystian Bielik. Played over 4000 minutes for Doncaster last season....has returned to Liverpool and now sat in the U23s barely playing (he might get to play tonight). Below you can see he was above average in all passing and attacking metrics compared to all other league 1 midfielders last season. Brannagan has a similar profile this year - Kane would almost be a like for like replacement.

Screenshot 2019-10-30 at 14.03.11.png

Greg Docherty

Another that was on loan last year, at Shrewsbury from Rangers. Similar to Kane played 4000 minutes....once more has only played cup competitions for Rangers this season and barely makes the league squad. At 23, he probably needs some football! Is on a 4.5 year contract from 2018 - but i guess is at least a loan option. He doesn't quite have the passing numbers of Kane but is more of a goal threat.

Screenshot 2019-10-30 at 14.10.41.png

Jordan Lyden

Was on loan at Oldham until January 2019 and racked up 900 minutes. He left Villa as a free agent in the summer and is currently at Swindon where he is a mainstay in the midfield. He is out of contract in the summer 2020 and is 23 - his passing is great but doesn't produce much from an attacking perspective. He is similar to Brannagan last season. Sorry for suggesting a Swindon player!!

Screenshot 2019-10-30 at 14.57.13.png

With Lyden in mind, there are loads of very good league 2 players out of contract in the summer. A clever league 1 club could mop up - players in a variety of positions...e.g Courtney Senior who I suggested last year!
 
Funny looking back through this thread and some of the finds that were good...some a little off the mark!

Highlighting Steven Alzate who was on loan at Swindon and now starts for Brighton is probably the highlight...also said Brannagan was about to have a big season :LOL:

Anyway, looking ahead to January and any business we might do (now we have loads of cup money). Our primary concern will be holding on to the squad as we are being watched by a lot of teams from higher up the pyramid. Having the team challenging around the play offs will help though!

Both Dickie and Brannagan are the two main assets - with an obvious gap when Cadden leaves (I know Long can step in, will probably still need someone else to come in at RB).

Will just have a look at Midfielders:

Herbie Kane

One of the stand out midfielders last season with Alex Mowatt and Krystian Bielik. Played over 4000 minutes for Doncaster last season....has returned to Liverpool and now sat in the U23s barely playing (he might get to play tonight). Below you can see he was above average in all passing and attacking metrics compared to all other league 1 midfielders last season. Brannagan has a similar profile this year - Kane would almost be a like for like replacement.

View attachment 2338

Greg Docherty

Another that was on loan last year, at Shrewsbury from Rangers. Similar to Kane played 4000 minutes....once more has only played cup competitions for Rangers this season and barely makes the league squad. At 23, he probably needs some football! Is on a 4.5 year contract from 2018 - but i guess is at least a loan option. He doesn't quite have the passing numbers of Kane but is more of a goal threat.

View attachment 2339

Jordan Lyden

Was on loan at Oldham until January 2019 and racked up 900 minutes. He left Villa as a free agent in the summer and is currently at Swindon where he is a mainstay in the midfield. He is out of contract in the summer 2020 and is 23 - his passing is great but doesn't produce much from an attacking perspective. He is similar to Brannagan last season. Sorry for suggesting a Swindon player!!

View attachment 2340

With Lyden in mind, there are loads of very good league 2 players out of contract in the summer. A clever league 1 club could mop up - players in a variety of positions...e.g Courtney Senior who I suggested last year!
Ah but could a clever Championship club do the same ?
 
Back
Top Bottom