Data bits

[Shosho]

So I have created a dashboard looking at CM in league 1 this season:

This is what Gorrin will be replacing:

Kashi with a reasonable defensive output but not too much else.

Brannagan is about to have a big season. Already posting good numbers and will surely improve if pushed forward:


Sykes and Henry post similar numbers...Sykes obviously off fewer minutes.




Looking forward to how our midfield will look next season!

 

[Shosho]

Our new signing - Fosu.

A typical KR winger. Very good at carrying the ball and creates more chances for himself than others (more like Browne than Graham).

He doesn't have a crossing game, however is very good at passing into the final third.

I look forward to seeing him

 

[Foley]

Our new signing - Fosu.

A typical KR winger. Very good at carrying the ball and creates more chances for himself than others (more like Browne than Graham).

He doesn't have a crossing game, however is very good at passing into the final third.

I look forward to seeing him


View attachment 1691

Decent defensively and for a wide man, decent goalscorer.
The pass in the penalty area success rate is very good too.

 

[Shosho]

Decent defensively and for a wide man, decent goalscorer.
The pass in the penalty area success rate is very good too.

Certainly chips in defensively.

He looks to pass into the box rather than crossing (which is a positive!)...Cadden also looks to do the same - if he joins.

As a comparison - Browne from last year - performing at championship level:

 

[Shosho]

Have finally got round to looking at CBs... (@AbbeyOx). I have number for league 1, 2 and conference and can add in scotland etc also.

As a point of reference, here is Bauer and Pinnock (just moved to Brentford), good benchmarks what we are looking for...



Pinnock especially is good in the air and on the ground, however his passing sets him apart

 

[AbbeyOx]

Have finally got round to looking at CBs... (@AbbeyOx). I have number for league 1, 2 and conference and can add in scotland etc also.

As a point of reference, here is Bauer and Pinnock (just moved to Brentford), good benchmarks what we are looking for...View attachment 1696

View attachment 1697

Pinnock especially is good in the air and on the ground, however his passing sets him apart

excellent work as usual. now forward it on to the club ?
i’m sure they’re doing all needed but would be good to have the defence sorted asap.
make us solid at the back then let Whyte and Fosu etc cause havoc upfield (with our hopefully soon to be announced strikers)

 

[Neville60]

I would love us to be able to afford a Pinnock type player.

 

[Shosho]

Daniel Happe - Left sided CB - Left footed - 20 - contract expires 2020

 

[beyondthefourth]

Daniel Happe - Left sided CB - Left footed - 20 - contract expires 2020

View attachment 1700

Playing for Leyton Orient, those are stats from the National League though, and therefore this preseason we'd still be paying L2 prices. Would be a good prospect buy, but I'd say we still need a definite first team player.

 

[Shosho]

Playing for Leyton Orient, those are stats from the National League though, and therefore this preseason we'd still be paying L2 prices. Would be a good prospect buy, but I'd say we still need a definite first team player.

Just did a search and seems to be available for around 200k. That would be a small fee for what he could become...left footed left CBs are a rare commodity...especially good ones!

 

[beyondthefourth]

Just did a search and seems to be available for around 200k. That would be a small fee for what he could become...left footed left CBs are a rare commodity...especially good ones!

True, but can we afford that on top of a first choice CB and striker? Especially if Cadden is coming in for a similar fee.

 

[Shosho]

True, but can we afford that on top of a first choice CB and striker? Especially if Cadden is coming in for a similar fee.

Who knows, Happe could be ready for the first team already in which case is a solid investment...although I think we are going for someone a little more experienced. With fees, we will have to pay (200k?) if Cadden comes, we paid undisclosed for Fosu...Tiger has funded Brannagan/Dickie/Whyte/Sykes/Hanson so there might be some money in the pot!

 

[beyondthefourth]

Who knows, Happe could be ready for the first team already in which case is a solid investment...although I think we are going for someone a little more experienced. With fees, we will have to pay (200k?) if Cadden comes, we paid undisclosed for Fosu...Tiger has funded Brannagan/Dickie/Whyte/Sykes/Hanson so there might be some money in the pot!

Like you say, depends if he's ready to go. I should think Nico is our 3rd choice CB regardless of who comes in. I can imagine getting another 'extra'in early, if we are sure Dickie will be running down his contract this year.

 

[Shosho]

Have been having a play around this morning with some hypothetical scouting...for left back. Seeing if there is any possibility of us finding someone that is an upgrade on ruffels. Caveat: in no way am I a pro at this and I'm sure that there is plenty wrong, but thought it would be fun to find a *logical* process using numbers.

Firstly...what is the Oxford style of play under Robinson? In short: ball carrying!
Whyte (7.99 p90)/Browne (8.96 p90)/Holmes (8.76 p90) in the top 15 ball carriers in the league add to this that Baptiste is in top 20 for successful dribbles (off 638 minutes - limited data so alway cautious) shows that we have a preferred style. Add to this Holmes/Browne/Baptiste/Norman in top 10 for fouls suffered p90 - enforces above teams have opted to take us down in the dribbling situations.

Next...what do the ball carriers do aside from running with it?
From the right, Whyte/Henry/Mcmahon are (were!) prevalent crossers…from the left rely on crosses from Holmes (only played 48% of available minutes). Both Holmes and Browne have high volume shots (3.24 & 2.56 per game with xG p90 of 0.23 & 0.19 respectively).

So we have a direct, ball carrying style that from the right usually results in a cross, from the left results in shots/attempts.

So, whats the role of the LB in the above?
To get the ball to the wingers! If they can also join the attacks with overlaps/crosses/dribbles also then bonus time.

Lets go shopping:

Firstly, some filters. I initially filtered by players in league 1 and 2 that have played over 900 minutes so far this season including the left back role - total being 113.

Next, to filter by age. Full backs peak at the age of 26 and with shorter contracts being the norm in the lower leagues is sorted by 26 and under. We were left with 40 players:

View attachment 995

Now, to further filter I started looking at those that crop up regularly on the Passes p90, Crosses p90 and Dribbles p90. Players that appeared in all 3:
- Pickering
- Butler
- Benning
- Smith-Brown
- Borthwick-Jackson
- Bola

From here, the next logical step seemed to be checking the availability.
- Pickering - contract until 2021
- Butler - Contract expires summer 2019
- Benning - Contract expires summer 2019
- Smith-Brown - just signed for Plymouth
- Borthwick-Jackson - on loan from Man Utd..possible contract until 2021
- Bola - summer 2019 wit 1 year extension

So the options we have: Pickering the best of the bunch at 20, but the expensive option. Borthwick-Jackson and Smith-Brown ruled out, Bola cheaper than Pickering, Butler and Benning could possibly obtain on a pre-contract.

Here is the Dan Butler chart

View attachment 996
In the top 85% (out of the 40 players assessed) for xA, Passes p90, Crosses p90 and Cross success %. Also rating highly on dribble metrics.

Obvious concern around the level, if this could translate to league 1, the defensive elements (haven't looked much in to this).

I would imagine this could be used along with traditional scouting, references, watching the player etc...but a fun way of finding those players that could possibly fit in to the squad.

Bola being linked with Brentford.

Seemed a pretty successful exercise above!

 

[Shosho]

As the transfer window progresses its evident to see those teams that have an emphasis on clever recruitment.

This is behind the scenes at Derby County - if Tiger's ambition is promotion this is what we would be up against.

Investing in the back room now is the sensible option. You bring in 2/3 analysts on 30-60k each and it finds you a Gavin Whyte each season...or prevents you from signing Alexis Sanchez on 250k a week.

Hull advertised for a recruitment analyst - https://futboljobs.com/en/job/110304/ 23k

it wouldn't take much to add to the back room and with it make some smart decisions

 

[beyondthefourth]

As the transfer window progresses its evident to see those teams that have an emphasis on clever recruitment.

This is behind the scenes at Derby County - if Tiger's ambition is promotion this is what we would be up against.

Investing in the back room now is the sensible option. You bring in 2/3 analysts on 30-60k each and it finds you a Gavin Whyte each season...or prevents you from signing Alexis Sanchez on 250k a week.

Hull advertised for a recruitment analyst - https://futboljobs.com/en/job/110304/ 23k

it wouldn't take much to add to the back room and with it make some smart decisions

What did they say when you offered your findings?

 

[Shosho]

What did they say when you offered your findings?

Yet to get anything across, most probably need another season of doing stuff to get fully confident and up-skill myself sufficiently.

Looking back through this thread has been a good insight, certainly some things that have worked and others that haven't!

 

[Shosho]

Some late night digging in the numbers.

Has been an exciting day or two (am yet to listen to the radio and fully catch up on all the news)....however...

Anthony Forde:



These are the Numbers for his last season in the Championship. I believe he was player of the season at Walsall and went on to have a few seasons in the league above, so plenty of pedigree and a good age profile also.

What to expect (I havent watched any video, just the above and canvassing opinion online). he was in the top 20% for chances created in the Championship - he also is nearly in the top 20% for successful crosses. Clearly linked to this is the ability to create in the penalty area. From reports he wont beat a man but is a hard working winger that will be solid in front of our RB/LB. Also good to have another set piece taker in the team!

On the flip side - Aryibi:



The above is from his 1300 minutes in Scotland. He is the opposite to Forde!

In the top 10% for successful dribbles in the league and also progressive runs. Similar to Browne he creates his own chances with a decent xG and plenty of shots...however, he isn't a creator and doesn't pass a whole lot!

Finally, Elliott Moore:



Again, in comparison to the rest of the Belgian B league. Very strong in the air, and looks to play on the front foot with his interceptions. Has also played LCB most of his time in Belgium, sometime part of a back 3. He doesn't look to be an amazing passer, however he replaces the goal threat that Nelson provided. I don't think Dickie and Moore would be the best passing CBs (even though Dickie did improve towards the end of last season) and my major concern would be the pace of the two CBs.

 

[Shosho]

So...some data dump. Obviously not had enough games to pick trends but a few things starting to emerge - probably best to wait 10 games but whatever!

Firstly -
xG For - 5.34
Goals For - 6

xG Against - 6.27
Goals against - 10

We are scoring at a rate that is pretty much expected and have hit the post 4 times - we are conceding goals at a rate that maybe looks a little unsustainable.

The xG against includes 2 penalties (0.76), 3 conceded headers that rate pretty lowly on xG (plus goals conceded from outside the box!)

Using just shot data we are giving up some of the fewest chances in the league - but conversion rates are running pretty high!

All pretty pants but in the long run this should even out.

So early indicators as to how we have started the season - 3rd most passes in the league/second most accurate. Combine this with 2nd most dribbles in the league and 3rd most crosses (around 20 per match!) and our playing style is similar to last year - just without the wide pace! Throw in the 3rd most fouled team in the league and it all looks pretty similar.

Im a big supporter of Gorrin - I think he add a lot to the team, the same with Cadden.

vs Peterborough in the league:



Gorrin almost plays in the back 4, sitting between the CBs - this provides cover for Dickie and his runs along with our high LB/RB.

With Dickie providing cover, it also allows Brannagan to be more advanced, getting closer to Woodburn.

vs Bristol Rovers:



Not too dissimilar to Peterborough, however Hanson is pretty much by himself in the centre. Brannagan is more advanced but fighting for similar spaces to Fosu and Woodburn. Fosu and Henry are played out wide however neither stay there which allows space for overlaps but leaves us vulnerable out wide if our CBs get split.

For me, I think a three man midfield of Baptiste/Gorrin/Brannagan is our best bet, however that means losing the #10 role. KR then has to accommodate Woodburn, Henry, Fosu, Forde out wide.

we've seen plenty of good football this season to suggest we will be decent - KR has some tricky decisions to make but almost in a repeat of last year we are conceding goals from low quality chances.

(I have avoided going on about the 108 crosses we've had!!)

 

[Foley]

So...some data dump. Obviously not had enough games to pick trends but a few things starting to emerge - probably best to wait 10 games but whatever!

Firstly -
xG For - 5.34
Goals For - 6

xG Against - 6.27
Goals against - 10

We are scoring at a rate that is pretty much expected and have hit the post 4 times - we are conceding goals at a rate that maybe looks a little unsustainable.

The xG against includes 2 penalties (0.76), 3 conceded headers that rate pretty lowly on xG (plus goals conceded from outside the box!)

Using just shot data we are giving up some of the fewest chances in the league - but conversion rates are running pretty high!

All pretty pants but in the long run this should even out.

So early indicators as to how we have started the season - 3rd most passes in the league/second most accurate. Combine this with 2nd most dribbles in the league and 3rd most crosses (around 20 per match!) and our playing style is similar to last year - just without the wide pace! Throw in the 3rd most fouled team in the league and it all looks pretty similar.

Im a big supporter of Gorrin - I think he add a lot to the team, the same with Cadden.

vs Peterborough in the league:

View attachment 2074

Gorrin almost plays in the back 4, sitting between the CBs - this provides cover for Dickie and his runs along with our high LB/RB.

With Dickie providing cover, it also allows Brannagan to be more advanced, getting closer to Woodburn.

vs Bristol Rovers:

View attachment 2075

Not too dissimilar to Peterborough, however Hanson is pretty much by himself in the centre. Brannagan is more advanced but fighting for similar spaces to Fosu and Woodburn. Fosu and Henry are played out wide however neither stay there which allows space for overlaps but leaves us vulnerable out wide if our CBs get split.

For me, I think a three man midfield of Baptiste/Gorrin/Brannagan is our best bet, however that means losing the #10 role. KR then has to accommodate Woodburn, Henry, Fosu, Forde out wide.

we've seen plenty of good football this season to suggest we will be decent - KR has some tricky decisions to make but almost in a repeat of last year we are conceding goals from low quality chances.

(I have avoided going on about the 108 crosses we've had!!)

Good stats.
From.watching the games it has seemed to me that
We have had loads of crosses (how many has Cadden put in)? We are not making the most of these.
We are conceding too many headers from crosses/ dead balls.
We have conceded two cracking goals from outside the area in the past 2 games. At this level we have been slightly unfortunate that both have gone into the top corner.

With regard to the crosses point I was hoping that Taylor could be an answer, but that will depend on his injury...