Just like the Windies did against the Aussies, Pakistan had chances to win the game today - but they lacked composure and made some really dumb decisions down the stretch.
This Aussie side is definitely flawed, but they've enough good players to be dangerous, and they never give it away at the death.
Hard to see them missing out on the semis now - even if they lost to NZ and England (as they could), they'll be top four if they take care of business (as they should) against Bangladesh, South Africa & Sri Lanka.
Meanwhile Pakistan's hopes are on life support. They could maybe get away with on more defeat if results break their way, but that wouldn't be guaranteed - and they've still got India & NZ to play.