International News Covid-19 .....

[Gary Baldi]

Was looking through some data last night and came across the curious case of Peru. They had a heavy multi month lockdown, and after easing it, their numbers have escalated

Peru COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Peru Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

The data is the epitome of a 2nd spike, something for the Govt to consider. But the lockdown delayed the inevitable and the deaths show no sign of plateauing.

Further, I was very surprised to see how high the UK was up on the testing table. I had assumed we were a lot lower than we are; currently 5th in the world. It means nothing in isolation, but shows that after the slow start, we are testing on a large scale which should bode well for the future.

With 14,690,808 cases in a population of around 6.5 billion, 0.00226% of the world population have had it.

 

[chuckbert]

Was looking through some data last night and came across the curious case of Peru. They had a heavy multi month lockdown, and after easing it, their numbers have escalated

Peru COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Peru Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

The data is the epitome of a 2nd spike, something for the Govt to consider. But the lockdown delayed the inevitable and the deaths show no sign of plateauing.

Further, I was very surprised to see how high the UK was up on the testing table. I had assumed we were a lot lower than we are; currently 5th in the world. It means nothing in isolation, but shows that after the slow start, we are testing on a large scale which should bode well for the future.

With 14,690,808 cases in a population of around 6.5 billion, 0.00226% of the world population have had it.

I don't think it is necessarily true that major relapses are inevitable. It is not the lockdown, but the lack of adherence to lockdown that produces these kinds of result.

The guardian article on this has a quote from a Peruvian medic/public health broadcaster explaining:
“But the problem was people’s behaviour,” he said. “The fact that on the eighth week of confinement you have thousands of people who are positive [for Covid-19] means that those people got the virus while the country was in lockdown – which means they did not respect the law.”

Peru’s coronavirus response was ‘right on time’ – so why isn't it working?

Peru was one of the first Latin America countries to go into lockdown – but the jump in new cases is undeniable, and experts say it’s due to people’s behaviour

www.theguardian.com

.

 

[Jerome'SAle]

Or had to go to the shop because they were out of food

 

[chuckbert]

Or had to go to the shop because they were out of food

No. You can go to the shop without catching covid.

 

[MarkG]

Anyway, aren't we due a spike as it is now two weeks after Eid?

 

[Essexyellows]

Anyway, aren't we due a spike as it is now two weeks after Eid?

See my graph below, albeit infections/cases...... see if you can calculate where EID celebrations happened....

 

[Pillox]

No. You can go to the shop without catching covid.

You can go to.a covid ward and not catch covid, its still a risk

 

[werthersoriginal]

Anyway, aren't we due a spike as it is now two weeks after Eid?

Oh, is that what all those chavs on Bournemouth beach were doing?

 

[RyanioBirdio]

Don’t forget to take the kids to the bowling alley and get a manicure for afters, starting tomorrow.

Downward trends, all the way.

 

[ZeroTheHero]

Looking at the positives though, the amount of deaths has not risen (yes I know there might be a lag).

United Kingdom COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United Kingdom Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

Of course any death is awful for friends and family, but I do wonder if the rising numbers of cases are mostly (not exclusively of course) among those young enough to be reasonably certain that if they *do* get it, they are very unlikely to be seriously ill. I think that has made their behaviour more cavalier (and some might say selfish), increasing the positive cases without having the same effect on the death rate.

Not sure I'll be going bowling any time soon though, personally.

 

[QR]

Mortality rates have also fallen because doctors have learnt how to treat the virus better.

 

[chuckbert]

You can go to.a covid ward and not catch covid, its still a risk

Sure, but going to the shops for food is not what has caused a spike in Peru. It’s ignoring all the rules.

 

[Essexyellows]

The key part about deaths is getting the very ill patient through, or managing, the cytokine reaction alongside that patients co-morbidities.
If fewer people reach that stage then there are fewer deaths.

 

[chuckbert]

A

The key part about deaths is getting the very ill patient through, or managing, the cytokine reaction alongside that patients co-morbidities.
If fewer people reach that stage then there are fewer deaths.

Although we don’t know what the long lasting organ damage will be to even those moderately affected (lungs, kidneys, heart, vasculature). If lots of people get it there could be secondary deaths for a long time.

 

[Essexyellows]

Another stats link.......

National COVID-19 surveillance reports

National COVID-19 surveillance reports, including weekly summary of findings monitored through various COVID-19 surveillance systems.

www.gov.uk

 

[Gary Baldi]

I don't think it is necessarily true that major relapses are inevitable. It is not the lockdown, but the lack of adherence to lockdown that produces these kinds of result.

The guardian article on this has a quote from a Peruvian medic/public health broadcaster explaining:
“But the problem was people’s behaviour,” he said. “The fact that on the eighth week of confinement you have thousands of people who are positive [for Covid-19] means that those people got the virus while the country was in lockdown – which means they did not respect the law.”

Peru’s coronavirus response was ‘right on time’ – so why isn't it working?

Peru was one of the first Latin America countries to go into lockdown – but the jump in new cases is undeniable, and experts say it’s due to people’s behaviour

www.theguardian.com

.

So in reality, locking down was pointless? Locking people up for 8 weeks didn't prevent the spread of the disease at the time, or now. It delayed the inevitable in Peru didn't it?

Thinking about it further, Israel suffered a similar fate, India has too. Did a severe lockdown only move the infection rate into the future? Of course healthcare provisioning is a big consideration in the lockdown, but hypothetically, have we wrecked economies and lives for a blip on the world wide death rate on a disease it's nigh in impossible to control?

The below snippet from Karol Sikura has been been rattling around in my brain for weeks... He's slowly being proven right around T-Cells... Could we be stumbling towards a point where most of us have had COVID already?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1281181037071085575

 

[chuckbert]

So in reality, locking down was pointless? Locking people up for 8 weeks didn't prevent the spread of the disease at the time, or now. It delayed the inevitable in Peru didn't it?

Thinking about it further, Israel suffered a similar fate, India has too. Did a severe lockdown only move the infection rate into the future? Of course healthcare provisioning is a big consideration in the lockdown, but hypothetically, have we wrecked economies and lives for a blip on the world wide death rate on a disease it's nigh in impossible to control?

The below snippet from Karol Sikura has been been rattling around in my brain for weeks... He's slowly being proven right around T-Cells... Could we be stumbling towards a point where most of us have had COVID already?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1281181037071085575

?
No - lockdown works, but if people don’t lockdown when they are supposed, it doesn’t.

Not sure what the point about Sikura is. It is standard immunology - good technical explanation here: https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-b-cells-and-t-cells-explained-141888
And this was an article in Science in May: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity
I must have missed a bit where he (a charlatan who lied about his credentials) proposed something that was unreasonably contested.

 

[m]

So in reality, locking down was pointless? Locking people up for 8 weeks didn't prevent the spread of the disease at the time, or now.

Are you saying Boris fucked things right up?

 

[Essexyellows]

Are you saying Boris fucked things right up?

It will come out, in the fullness of time, that he got it "about right" from a political view.
From a healthcare view there were some "could have done betters".

Some (me) would have had us locked down properly, no more than 5k from home.
Folk on the island are on, those who are off are off.

However he saw a bigger picture than I.............................

 

[MarkG]

It will come out, in the fullness of time, that he got it "about right" from a political view.
From a healthcare view there were some "could have done betters".

Some (me) would have had us locked down properly, no more than 5k from home.
Folk on the island are on, those who are off are off.

However he saw a bigger picture than I.............................

Probably helps to pick that option if you have a job / employer that keeps paying you