International News Covid-19 .....

ZeroTheHero

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Can you explain? The death rate certainly came down in this country as a result of the first lockdown, unless it was a coincidence somehow? As a layman in this area, I'd have thought less people mixing = less transmission = less illness = fewer deaths. Or is that too simplistic?
 

TL@69

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This is concerning. I've been looking at this a lot over the last couple of months and there have been various reports showing the limited effect lockdowns have on death rates.View attachment 4994
Isn’t lockdown about delaying the deaths in the hope of a cure/ vaccine That will reduce the numbers of deaths In the long run.
 

Tomox

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Can you explain? The death rate certainly came down in this country as a result of the first lockdown, unless it was a coincidence somehow? As a layman in this area, I'd have thought less people mixing = less transmission = less illness = fewer deaths. Or is that too simplistic?

I'm a layman too and not pretending to know anymore about this than you or anyone else! From what I've read, it's a seasonal respiratory virus. So it more or less goes away in the summer and comes back in the winter - Following the classic Gompertz curve that respiratory viruses tend to follow (i.e initial growth is rapid followed by a levelling-off) and then a resurgence in the winter.
 

TL@69

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I'm a layman too and not pretending to know anymore about this than you or anyone else! From what I've read, it's a seasonal respiratory virus. So it more or less goes away in the summer and comes back in the winter - Following the classic Gompertz curve that respiratory viruses tend to follow (i.e initial growth is rapid followed by a levelling-off) and then a resurgence in the winter.
Seasonal, more or less goes away in the summer. How does that add up with 50,000 deaths between spring & autumn .
 

carefreeoufc

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I might have misread or am being stupid here but is it not fairly simple? Lockdown does not reduce the seriousness if one catches COVID-19 it only reduces the potential for it to be caught. Therefore it is correct that it does not reduce the death rate but it does reduce the infection rate.

If 100 people catch it and 10 people die during lockdown then it's got a 10% mortality rate... If 1000 people catch it without lockdown then you could argue you'd be looking at 100 dead. Although I guess you could make a case that the mortality rate could increase as the more people that catch it there is higher likelihood of it infecting the vulnerable who may be even more susceptible to death from the illness.
 

ZeroTheHero

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I'm a layman too and not pretending to know anymore about this than you or anyone else! From what I've read, it's a seasonal respiratory virus. So it more or less goes away in the summer and comes back in the winter - Following the classic Gompertz curve that respiratory viruses tend to follow (i.e initial growth is rapid followed by a levelling-off) and then a resurgence in the winter.
Well it did taper down in the summer, but never really went away. Unfortunately January is supposedly the worst month for respiratory illnesses form what I have read. As carefreeoufc says the mortality rate isn't going to change. But an increase in the sheer numbers of people infected mean that more people will die - lockdown reduces that number and (at the very worst) delays some of the deaths. With various vaccines in the horizon, that seems lie a very worthwhile thing to do!
 

Tomox

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Well it did taper down in the summer, but never really went away. Unfortunately January is supposedly the worst month for respiratory illnesses form what I have read. As carefreeoufc says the mortality rate isn't going to change. But an increase in the sheer numbers of people infected mean that more people will die - lockdown reduces that number and (at the very worst) delays some of the deaths. With various vaccines in the horizon, that seems lie a very worthwhile thing to do!
Perhaps 'going away' was the wrong turn of phrase, but the death rate between August and October was really very low. I think it was down to 1 death on a particular day in August and then again in September. I don't think you can argue that this has followed that classic pattern, just on how lockdown has fitted around it and the impact it's had.
 

Tomox

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Although one thing I would say is that in the video, he references Sweden who I believe have now moved into lockdown or some form of it?
 

Essexyellows

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This is concerning. I've been looking at this a lot over the last couple of months and there have been various reports showing the limited effect lockdowns have on death rates.View attachment 4994

Lockdown only reduces the transmission rate.
People are therefore less likely to bump into someone who is carrying it.
However lockdowns also have huge consequences.
 

Essexyellows

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This explains a lot.
The Government followed the science but the science "missed" by a bit which extrapolated to the death rate....

Those small things that make the big difference like the planners not knowing how care homes actually work and the transactions of staff, patients and hospitals.
 

Oldman159

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IMHO, the government will still get a kicking. Trust me, Salem residential wannabes Beth Rigby and Laura Kuenssburg will not let that go...

😉
 

Essexyellows

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Numbers, bleak numbers.....

33,262 people in Leicestershire have tested positive - up from 32,789 (increase 473).
15,715 (increase of 184) were within the Leicester City Council area.
17,547 (increase of 289) cases were reported in the County.

UHL reported 17 death's. The death's occurred on the following days: 9th November (1), 14th November (6), 15th November (5), 16th November (3), 17th November (1) and 18th November (1).

Total number of UHL death's now stands at 542.
 

Essexyellows

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Not a good day today.
We lost one of our own in the early hours of the morning.
I`ve known Prof Gershlick for the 15+ years I`ve lived here and worked for the Trust.
He was being treated for Covid and on ventilation, fit bloke, mid-60`s and a genuinely good person.
Lots of shocked folk at the factory today.
 

Essexyellows

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Friday stats....

34,342 people in Leicestershire have tested positive - up from 33,627 (increase 715).
16,186 (increase of 335) were within the Leicester City Council area.
18,156 (increase of 380) cases were reported in the County.

UHL reported 2 death's. The death's occurred on the following days, 16th November (1) and 19th November (1).

Total number of UHL death's now stands at 548.
 

carefreeoufc

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Friday stats....

34,342 people in Leicestershire have tested positive - up from 33,627 (increase 715).
16,186 (increase of 335) were within the Leicester City Council area.
18,156 (increase of 380) cases were reported in the County.

UHL reported 2 death's. The death's occurred on the following days, 16th November (1) and 19th November (1).

Total number of UHL death's now stands at 548.

Did I read correctly on the BBC News yesterday that deaths being counted are all of those where a positive case of Covid has been diagnosed and the death has occurred within 28 days of this diagnosis?

I knew about the 28 days but I guess hadn’t fully appreciated that any death was being captured as Covid related, unless I have the wrong end of the stick?

It seems a little nonsensical if that is the approach! I drive to Oxford Parkway for a test and it is confirmed I have Covid. I self isolate at home and then after 14 days crack on with stuff only to end up in an accident on the A34 (fatal). My demise would be added to the list of deaths even though it has absolutely nothing to do with Covid.

Thought you might be the man to know?
 

Essexyellows

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Did I read correctly on the BBC News yesterday that deaths being counted are all of those where a positive case of Covid has been diagnosed and the death has occurred within 28 days of this diagnosis?

I knew about the 28 days but I guess hadn’t fully appreciated that any death was being captured as Covid related, unless I have the wrong end of the stick?

It seems a little nonsensical if that is the approach! I drive to Oxford Parkway for a test and it is confirmed I have Covid. I self isolate at home and then after 14 days crack on with stuff only to end up in an accident on the A34 (fatal). My demise would be added to the list of deaths even though it has absolutely nothing to do with Covid.

Thought you might be the man to know?

Correct. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths
The measure is: "Total number of deaths since the start of the pandemic of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test. "
And for certified deaths it is: "Total number of deaths since the start of the pandemic of people whose death certificate mentioned COVID-19 as one of the causes."
 

carefreeoufc

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Correct. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths
The measure is: "Total number of deaths since the start of the pandemic of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test. "
And for certified deaths it is: "Total number of deaths since the start of the pandemic of people whose death certificate mentioned COVID-19 as one of the causes."
I see! Well I’m sure it doesn’t cause a huge discrepancy but it’s still a discrepancy. Perhaps when this has all blown over there’ll be the opportunity to look at the actual cause of death
 
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