International News Covid-19 .....

Local numbers (Friday)
10,710 people in Leicestershire have tested positive - up from 10,625 (increase 85).
6451 (increase of 44) are within the Leicester City Council area.
4259 (increase of 41) cases were reported in the County.

No further deaths, 30+ inpatients tested positive...
 
Are we at the stage where positive test counts are now not worth the comparison due to increased testing, and we should be concentrating on hospital admissions, ICU admissions, and fatalities? How do these compare to the first spike?
 
Are we at the stage where positive test counts are now not worth the comparison due to increased testing, and we should be concentrating on hospital admissions, ICU admissions, and fatalities? How do these compare to the first spike?

I guess we'll see when the period of the time lag from the 1st spike happens this time round.
 
Are we at the stage where positive test counts are now not worth the comparison due to increased testing, and we should be concentrating on hospital admissions, ICU admissions, and fatalities? How do these compare to the first spike?
Personally, I am not sure that comparing now with May (or whenever) is that valid so far as positive tests are concerned - not only are there a lot more tests, they are testing in areas that are thought to be hotbeds of infection. So no surprise that the numbers are going up.
What is more concerning is how quickly the numbers are rising now, under the new testing conditions. From the BBC Website - 'The government's science advisers say the number is now doubling every week. If those trends continue then infections could go from the estimated 6,000-a-day to more than 100,000 by mid-October.'
That's a frightening number, and of course there is no reason why it would stop at mid-October. In fact at doubling every day, by the end of October (say another 10 days) virtually everyone would be infected.
Once the numbers get that high, it would seem increasingly likely that that vulnerable people would find it incredibly difficult to avoid infection - and then the number of deaths would increase similarly.
I think many older people are still isolating as much as they can - for exactly the same reason that many young people aren't: the likely seriousness of the consequences should they be infected. So at the moment the death figures are low because of that self imposed isolation - once that becomes ineffective, we're screwed.
 
Are we at the stage where positive test counts are now not worth the comparison due to increased testing, and we should be concentrating on hospital admissions, ICU admissions, and fatalities? How do these compare to the first spike?

Admissions are increasing very, very slowly.
Currently ITU admissions remain low and fatalities are very low (around 1 every 3 weeks).

Mind you we are one of the top 3 performing Trust`s in getting folk out alive. (y)(y)(y)
 
Admissions are increasing very, very slowly.
Currently ITU admissions remain low and fatalities are very low (around 1 every 3 weeks).

Mind you we are one of the top 3 performing Trust`s in getting folk out alive. (y)(y)(y)
This reduction numbers is supported by data from Germany showing reduced deaths rates in all ages, up to 60% in one age group. Currently infection rates are increasing throughout most of Europe whereas death rates are not followed in the way they did in the initial wave
 
Admissions are increasing very, very slowly.
Currently ITU admissions remain low and fatalities are very low (around 1 every 3 weeks).

Mind you we are one of the top 3 performing Trust`s in getting folk out alive. (y)(y)(y)
Thanks for this, your updates are always interesting to read.
 
Are we at the stage where positive test counts are now not worth the comparison due to increased testing, and we should be concentrating on hospital admissions, ICU admissions, and fatalities? How do these compare to the first spike?

My thoughts exactly..

I put a video up previously which answered a lot of questions about the general nature of viruses and the impact of lockdown measures and how this virus has compared to historic viruses. Quire an eye opener.

Chances are there were thousands and thousands more people compared to now who would have tested positive had the testing regime been in place back in Feb/Mar time.
 
^^^^ that will kill more than Covid.
The amount of folk "out there" with serious illnesses that are untreated/deteriorating (mental & physical) will far outweigh Covid deaths.

Use the Nightingales as Covid only, with some adjustments needed, and get normal hospitals back to caring for folk.
 
^^^^ that will kill more than Covid.
The amount of folk "out there" with serious illnesses that are untreated/deteriorating (mental & physical) will far outweigh Covid deaths.

Use the Nightingales as Covid only, with some adjustments needed, and get normal hospitals back to caring for folk.

I agree. There are, sadly, some very mentally unwell people in our society who could well be tipped over the edge by a second lockdown I fear.
 
Personally, I am not sure that comparing now with May (or whenever) is that valid so far as positive tests are concerned - not only are there a lot more tests, they are testing in areas that are thought to be hotbeds of infection. So no surprise that the numbers are going up.
What is more concerning is how quickly the numbers are rising now, under the new testing conditions. From the BBC Website - 'The government's science advisers say the number is now doubling every week. If those trends continue then infections could go from the estimated 6,000-a-day to more than 100,000 by mid-October.'
That's a frightening number, and of course there is no reason why it would stop at mid-October. In fact at doubling every day, by the end of October (say another 10 days) virtually everyone would be infected.
Once the numbers get that high, it would seem increasingly likely that that vulnerable people would find it incredibly difficult to avoid infection - and then the number of deaths would increase similarly.
I think many older people are still isolating as much as they can - for exactly the same reason that many young people aren't: the likely seriousness of the consequences should they be infected. So at the moment the death figures are low because of that self imposed isolation - once that becomes ineffective, we're screwed.
I think the doubling period is unlikely to increase from 7 days to 1 days (that would require something extraordinary to change). But your point is important - as many people learned at the outset of the pandemic, exponential growth is frightening. (Like the old story about the guy giving someone the choice of either 1000 quid, or 1 penny on the first square of a chess board, 2p on the second etc ... The chess board would give him over 300 quadrillion quid).
Melbourne seems to have got it's "blip" under control with a lockdown (about 6 weeks now I think).
 
^^^^ that will kill more than Covid.
The amount of folk "out there" with serious illnesses that are untreated/deteriorating (mental & physical) will far outweigh Covid deaths.
That's only true as long as infection is kept under control (according to ONS). In a bizarre way it would be a "good result" if covid wasn't the major primary cause of deaths due to covid.
 
I think the doubling period is unlikely to increase from 7 days to 1 days (that would require something extraordinary to change). But your point is important - as many people learned at the outset of the pandemic, exponential growth is frightening. (Like the old story about the guy giving someone the choice of either 1000 quid, or 1 penny on the first square of a chess board, 2p on the second etc ... The chess board would give him over 300 quadrillion quid).
Melbourne seems to have got it's "blip" under control with a lockdown (about 6 weeks now I think).
Doh - yes of course, that is a weekly increase, not daily - so 10 weeks could see everyone infected (theoretically) by Christmas. Ho ho ho.
 
During the first months of the pandemic and lockdown, there was a government daily briefing at 4pm (or there about)

we're told infection rates are climbing again steeply .... first briefing(by gov medical advisers) since lockdown restrictions were lifted, held 11am on a Monday morning?
 
Well having just watched the briefing I reckon we’re not far off single or only two household interactions being announced tomorrow.

The buses and B&Q will be busy with people trying to meet up :D
 
Well having just watched the briefing I reckon we’re not far off single or only two household interactions being announced tomorrow.

The buses and B&Q will be busy with people trying to meet up :D
pubs, bars n restaurants 10pm curfews incoming?
 
pubs, bars n restaurants 10pm curfews incoming?

Possibly?! The feeling I got was that they were preparing people to accept no more unnecessary mixing of households (particularly six different ones) whilst also trying to get across the importance of “Covid secure” venues remaining open to keep the economy going.

If I read it right then I’d guess it’s fine for a family/household unit to go to the pub and spend etc. but you won’t be going there with five others or having them over.
 
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